Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So was Boluarte always some sort of Keiko Lite sleeper agent within Peru Libre or is she just a weathervane?

I don’t think she has particularly strong political convictions, and if she does they’re certainly not Leftist with a capital L. She was essentially a mid-level DMV employee two years ago, and the only reason she’s succeeding Castillo is because Vladimir Cerrón was banned from his first running-mate slot due to corruption - I don’t have any insight as to why she was originally put on the ticket in the first place besides as a seat-filler. I think she’s drifting to the right/authoritarianism because it’s easier and she’s getting more support there than from the left.

In other (and better) news, the Congressional subcommittee on impeachments has unanimously voted to approve the expulsion of Freddy Díaz (APP) for rape and referred it to the full Congress. https://twitter.com/FlorPabloMedina/status/1606305882815361024?s=20&t=qazoO8...

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Interview with Benji Espinoza, Castillo’s former lawyer: https://larepublica.pe/politica/actualidad/2022/12/30/benji-espinoza-el-caso-de-rebelion-es-el-mas-debil-que-tiene-la-fiscalia-contra-pedro-castillo/

He thinks the case against him for rebellion is weak (since the law requires the use of arms) and that he shouldn’t be in pretrial detention for allegedly being caught in flagrante delicto.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

9 protesters killed by police in Puno today as demonstrations continue. Ayacucho airport shut down. Their demands remain unsatisfied and unsatisfiable.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So we already know Keiko will get 49.5% of the vote, so who will get the 50.5%?

If I had to guess one person to be the next president of Peru (and to win the 2024 election, which is certainly not the same thing although I don’t see Boluarte resigning any time soon), it’d be López Aliaga. He’d be leaving his job as mayor of Lima very early, but he’s still the only candidate from last time who’s maintained a significant presence. Keiko’s not even sure to run with how her legal troubles have only advanced since the last election, and Hernando de Soto has apparently left politics (though I’m sure his party will run one of their dumbass libertarian members of Congress). Antauro seems like the most likely candidate on the left. There will surely be a more traditional left-wing candidate, but all the left-wing parties sold their souls to Castillo so there won’t be much daylight between any of them. Lastly, there’ll likely be someone in the Vizcarrista-morado enlightened centrist space (Flor Pablo?), but sadly I think they’re doomed to similar results as last time. The country is so polarized that there’s not much room left for them.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Rapist Congressman Freddy Díaz was not expelled today. 60 votes in favor, 2 against, 21 abstentions - not enough to remove him. Alberto Otárola was meant to propose a confidence vote today but Perú Libre legislators blocked him from the floor.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Rapist Congressman Freddy Díaz was not expelled today. 60 votes in favor, 2 against, 21 abstentions - not enough to remove him. Alberto Otárola was meant to propose a confidence vote today but Perú Libre legislators blocked him from the floor.

By the way, the confidence vote ended up passing the next day and Diaz was removed from office later on after backlash. Thankfully.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Social organizations leading the ongoing march to Lima have put out a statement calling for the resignation of Boluarte and congressional leadership, elections this year, and a referendum on a constituent assembly (the latter demand, a longtime goal of the left, has grown in prominence in the past few days with the protesters’ arrival in Lima). Notably no mention of Castillo. Police invaded the grounds of San Marcos University - the oldest in the Americas - with a tank to dislodge protesters who were being welcomed there by students.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Massive crisis of representation is a common theme in western or western-related countries these days, we’re just seeing it in a country as politically fragmented and with no strong leadership like Peru.

I always had sympathy for Castillo in the sense that I didn’t really see him as a dictator wannabe with what he was doing, he mostly was trying to get minimal governability in a system that was EXTREMELY harshly against him from the get-go. That said, he committed a very dumb mistake by giving his opposition what they wanted him to give them which shows he’s not fit to run the country anyway.

I get that there was no way to strongly defend what he was doing but inside all the context surrounding it all, it was extremely clear he wasn’t the main danger to political institutions. It was a reactive action, which doesn’t change how wrong it was but allows people to get better perspective.

But still it’s not surprising to see Indigenous Peruvians to get that angry with their vote being ripped off because it was something disrespected before the guy even assumed, people were already speculating how much he would last just after he got elected. That’s not normal, the problem was always in the fragility of Peru’s political system. So weird how the country seems vaccinated/adapted to political chaos though, as it has no big effect on economical stability.

As someone who had similar feelings of utter disgust with the congress disrespect with the people’s democratic choice in 2016 after Dilma’s white coup here (or impeachment), I strongly sympathize with the Peruvian protesters who were ignored and made invisible in the middle of all this. New elections immediately really should be the path but even then it will be useless if the winner isn’t respected again because of lack of support from congress.

It doesn’t really sound democratic at all to just constantly impeach and repeat elections until you finally get the result some group wants either.

I don’t think new elections could realistically be held immediately. The electoral organisms would need time to prepare and last month they said December of this year would be the earliest they could manage. When Sagasti took office the elections were already scheduled (in fact he had been running for Vice President and had to drop out), and the last time this happened was under Paniagua in a very different scenario. I think the earlier elections are - beyond a certain time frame, essentially late 2023 or early 2024 - the more it privileges established parties such as Fuerza Popular, Acción Popular, etc.

(Also the statutory minimum is 9 months according to the Ley Orgánica Electoral, which would have to be amended. Unrealistic in addition to unwise.)