Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Fujimori was always going to win in this runoff.

>one mock election where she narrowly loses

>Fujimori was always going to win

Sorry, was sloppy attempt at dry humor. I do have a bad feeling though!

Lol, dw. The secret is to always have a bad feeling and you’ll never be let down!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

Is it confirmed that it was SL? I’ve heard that it’s not and there are other possibilities as well (the Quispe Palominos, etc).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

MCPP broke with political leadership a decade or two ago and now they just fight the anti-drug police. That statement is some crazy sh**t, very very anti gay, anti abortion, etc.

Yes, the pamphlets that are showing up on the news (insofar as they are real) talk a lot about “lesbian degenerates” and “homosexual degenerates”.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-28/castillo-s-lead-narrows-in-peruvian-vote-simulation-for-runoff

Latest poll by Gestion has

Castillo   42.6
Fujimori  41.7

The narrowing of the gap seems to be influenced by the Shining Path terrorist attack.

Likely one of the last polls we’ll get before the prohibition in the final week (although some constitutional law professors are suing to enjoin that provision of the electoral law).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

IEP poll has Castillo at 40 (down from 44) and Fujimori at 38 (up from 34). I believe this is the last major poll that’ll be released before election day next Sunday.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I’m only vaguely paying attention to the debate, but Fujimori started an anecdote with “when I got out of prison for the third time...”

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I do think Castillo could’ve won if Keiko didn’t start growing so fast just after the 1st round vote. I don’t think it will be that close now, maybe a 54/46 vs 55/45 divide favoring Keiko? idk

There was literally nothing he could’ve done to won. Basic math and intuition was against his side in a still staunchly conservative country. Anyway

The New Peru movement expresses its deep concern regarding the refusal of the National Elections Jury to deliver the credentials requested by representatives of the European left, the Progressive International, and the Democratic Socialist of America to participate in Election Observers in the upcoming presidential elections of 6 of June.

The election literally has not happened. Calm down (although I do think she’ll win).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Unofficial IEP poll is out, slight lead for Keiko. I’d rather be her than Castillo at the moment.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I think Castillo's numbers will drop as more people become aware of PL's more wacky positions, but he'll still win in the end 54%-46%

Nothing I've seen from the polls has really changed my view. I still think Castillo wins narrowly thanks to underpolling of his base.

Might be a little closer than 54-46 though

I hope you’re right. I think Fujimori’s been on an upward trend for the past week and a half that’ll be difficult to stop.

If Castillo wins, what does that say about Fujimori's presidential prospects?

It means they’re over.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Those results call to mind another polling error - the exclusion of (mostly right-wing) Peruvians abroad from national polling.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Night of the final day. One hour remains.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ipsos/America TV exit poll:

- Fujimori: 50.3%
- Castillo: 49.7%

Depressing. Let’s hope that rural undercount comes through.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

ONPE is at over 70% of the results in. 52.435% Keiko vs 47.565% Castillo. He’s not even making up ground. If these are the rural votes coming in (I have no idea) it does not look good for him.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

When is the foreign vote expected to come in? I hope we don’t get a US 2020 type situation.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

How do y’all think the American vote will come in???

Highly pro-Keiko most likely, although no idea on turnout.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Argentina 46.5% in. 22k votes (20.5k valid)

Fujimori: 57.3%
Castillo: 42.7%

Argentina and Uruguay best American countries, the lowest % of the Fujimori vote is there.

Uruguay - 55% Fujimori
Argentina - 57%
Brazil - 59%
Bolivia - 65%
Ecuador - 66%
Colombia - 72%
Mexico - 73%
Paraguay - 74%
Canada - 76%

Considering the only country in the world that Castillo won was NORWAY, I think, that’s pretty good result for the Southern Cone. Hopefully Chile follows suit.

He also won Cuba 73-26 hilariously enough

Of course he did. I want to know who the 26% of Peruvians who moved to Cuba and voted for Fujimori are - did their experiences there really disappoint them?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Just under 23% of the votes from abroad are in, reminder.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The US expat vote might give Keiko a slim win.

That’s definitely what she and half the country are banking on.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Maybe there not that disliked in big parts of the population as some people have suggested. Is a symptom of the disconnection in LatAm between the elite and the rest of the population.

Or maybe it was a vote against the other side, like "I cannot spoil my ballot and let the other side win".

Anecdotally this seems like a lot of what it was. But it’s true that at least Castillo isn’t as disliked as some people think - in IEP polls at least he always had a significantly higher amount of people voting for him and not just against Fujimori than Fujimori had for her.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Uh oh Fujimori is going to have to call in another coup favor from the Yanquis.

Why bother when Congress will impeach and remove Castillo within the year anyway?

My favorite part of the Castillo presidency will be Keiko never being the first woman president.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Anyone have any insight into the outstanding vote? Still nothing from the US.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Anyone have any insight into the outstanding vote? Still nothing from the US.

Peru 98% in and 50.235% to 49.765% for Castillo. Remaining areas Castillo but not monolithically from what I can tell. So probably 50.3% for Castillo.

That means Fujimori needs 70% of the expat vote on current turnout. Right now she is on 62% but that will increase when America comes in. So it really is down to the wire. My hunch is Castillo though.

Thanks for the breakdown.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Here's something that I hope will help guide analysis. Blue is 100% or insanely close to 100% of polling stations counted. Orange are departments with vote uncounted.

All Castillo vote to come in from Peru. He’ll likely reach 50,4% and then there’s all the foreign vote to come in and considering Chile is voting for Castillo with 65%, Keiko probably needs insane margins in US to compensate.

Which is possible considering Mexico and Canada are doing 75% and 76% Keiko.

That Chile vote is only ~2% of the total, though, concentrated in the far north.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The remaining jurisdictions where 10% or more of voting stations have not reported:

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Castillo now leads by 110,000 votes within Peru and over 90,000 overall.