Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

In Congressional news, there are (as of now) three lists for leadership (IIRC the top two will advance to a runoff if no list achieves a majority of 66). One is the Renovación Popular list, led by Jorge Montoya and including a bunch of other RP members (the party has 12 in total), one is a center-right list led by Maricarmen Alva of Acción Popular (the right wing, not the Lescano wing which has about 8 members of Congress) and including Avanza País, APP, and Podemos Peru (totaling 43 votes among all parties), and the third is a left-wing/center-left led by José Jerí of Somos Peru (Vizcarra’s party; Jerí is Vizcarra’s replacement after the latter was banned from public office for the Vacunagate scandal) and including Juntos por el Perú, Perú Libre, and the Partido Morado (51 votes).

Apparently the center-right list tried to incorporate Montoya and RP into theirs, but Montoya refused to be anything but first on the list (i.e. candidate for speaker) and AP threatened to vote for the PL list if Alva wasn’t first. Fuerza Popular has not said anything either way.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Update: FP supports the center-right list, so Maricarmen Alva (who supported Merino and still does) has the votes to become president of Congress and a possible future president.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The center-left list has been excluded due to the Partido Morado not forming an official parliamentary group (five members are needed and they have three). They joined with Somos Perú after presenting their list but the list still wasn’t accepted. Flor Pablo (the PM member on the list) moved to override the parliamentarian and include the list but was defeated 79-49.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

List 2 has just reached 66 votes, Maricarmen Alva elected speaker. Supporters of the excluded list cast blank ballots.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The ceremony is today, in about an hour. Swearing in of the PM has been delayed to tomorrow and the rest of the cabinet to Friday.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

He really did it, the absolute madman. Some controversy over the new Congress not letting Castillo into the building for the ceremony.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Begins his speech by remembering the Inca Empire, the colonial era, and the Tupac Amaru revolt.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Lots of focus on fighting the pandemic and constructing hospitals, now he’s on to the economy - “respecting private property, but putting the interests of the nation first”. Again denying any plans for expropriations.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

He is wearing his hat, by the way, and a similar jacket to Evo Morales’s.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Cracking down on megaminería and supporting local input in economic development. More money for poor families ($178 USD each). and regional governments.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Mandatory military service for NEETs.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Mentions “sustainable mining” and carbon neutrality by 2050 in the same breath.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So, pretty standard Latin American left-wing #populist stuff so far, with some "don't worry guys I'm not Maduro" thrown in?

Pretty much, nothing out of character (mandatory military service certainly has its appeal among certain strands of the #populist left). Although I thought the opening of his speech was really beautiful and managed to rise to the occasion of the bicentennial and his role in it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Guido Bellido is the new PM, just announced at an event in Ayacucho. Opposition to Najar from feminist organizations had intensified in the past few days and I guess Castillo wants to give a message of separation from Cerrón. I…think he’s a member of Congress for PL?

Update: Bellido is close to Cerrón (about half the PL congressional caucus is more cerronista party people and half is castillista teacher’s union people, and he’s in the first half) and defended him against Vero Mendoza early on in the second round, but other than that I can’t find much information about him.

Update 2: Bellido is currently being formally investigated for apology for terrorism after making comments in support of Sendero leader Edith Lagos and saying that Sendero members “wrongly took a path” because “the country was in a disaster”.

Update 3: Virulently homophobic. Sadly Chabelita Cortez (popular JP congresswoman and former sanitation worker) is still defending him.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The rest of the cabinet will be announced tonight. Trying to get his first no confidence vote in before he can dissolve Congress?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Uruguayan foreign affairs ministry casually throwing out that academic and former guerrillero (against the first Belaúnde government) Héctor Béjar will be in foreign affairs.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Various sources (La Republica, El Comercio) saying Francke will no longer be finance minister after the designation of Bellido. Good for him, I wouldn’t want to be associated with someone like that and it looks almost as if Castillo is trying to go for a no confidence vote. So much for Humala 2.0.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Cevallos, Juan Cadilla (PL education advisor and teachers’ union leader), and Anahí Durand (sociologist and JP member), all choices seen as likely, look to be confirmed for health, education, and the women’s ministry. JP congressman Roberto Sánchez for foreign commerce and tourism.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

cautious optimism from me.

Not from me, not for someone who has more nice things to say about Shining Path than about gay people heading up the cabinet. I’m most optimistic about him being sacked ASAP and Castillo getting a new cabinet.

Full cabinet sworn in, except for finance and justice. Dina Boluarte is Minister for Development and Social Inclusion, poet and former indigenista presidential candidate Ciro Gálvez is Cultures Minister.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The morados - one of Castillo’s few allies in Congress - came out against Bellido as PM. If you want Castillo to actually make change, you should be pessimistic tonight. This is total devotion to his single biggest moral and political weakness - Vladimir Cerrón - and alienation of his political allies and the moderate (and even many leftist) supporters that gave him the presidency.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

cautious optimism from me.

Not from me, not for someone who has more nice things to say about Shining Path than about gay people heading up the cabinet. I’m most optimistic about him being sacked ASAP and Castillo getting a new cabinet.

Full cabinet sworn in, except for finance and justice. Dina Boluarte is Minister for Development and Social Inclusion, poet and former indigenista presidential candidate Ciro Gálvez is Cultures Minister.

I forgot about shining path, yeah nvm

I think the best hope now is that this cabinet gets thrown out and replaced (a vote of no confidence in the PM means the firing of the whole cabinet) and Castillo maneuvers another confidence vote on some other issue so we can get a new Congress that’s not dominated by the right.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

PL party Congress is going on rn. Hopefully some time soon after it’s finished we should have the cabinet ready (although Cevallos in health is all but confirmed, Najar looks strong for PM, and Francke still seems the most likely for finance).

What are Cevallos, Najar, and Francke like?

Najar is Cerrón’s professed candidate for PM, PL guy since the party’s founding and formerly of UPP (but not the etnocacerista version, more the Humala pre-hoja de ruta version). He spent a long time trying to get out of paying child support to the daughter he had with a 14-year-old.

WTF ? Shouldn't he be breaking big rocks into smaller rocks in a prison somwehre instead of running for PM ?

He ought to be doing something of that nature, but he didn’t violate the age of consent laws and the paternity/child support issue was legally settled.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Felipe IV seem to get invited to a lot of inaugurations in southern America tradition to invite the Spanish monarchs?

Apparently AMLO’s was the first one he attended, but he’s done a lot since then. If I had to guess, it could be because he’s more easily seen as representing the state, so it’s not seen as as much of a political gesture as it might be for an executive president or prime minister.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apparently Castillo and Bellido have finally convinced Francke to join the cabinet, as well as Aníbal Torres at Justice, who had led Castillo’s legal team admirably during the post-election challenges. Both had been at the ceremony last night but left empty-handed.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Update 2: Bellido is currently being formally investigated for apology for terrorism after making comments in support of Sendero leader Edith Lagos and saying that Sendero members “wrongly took a path” because “the country was in a disaster”.

Update 3: Virulently homophobic. Sadly Chabelita Cortez (popular JP congresswoman and former sanitation worker) is still defending him.

Bellido is certainly homophobic but what he said about Sendero 1) is literally true and 2) in no way is apologizing or supporting them. 18 year olds are not the main bad actors here and it is 110% true that rural Peeu was completely ignored at the time (which allowed SL's rise). It's silly to these those Joe Biden is BLM/Antifa level right wing smears published in English.

That’s certainly true (I never said it wasn’t!) but combined with tributes to Sendero leaders like Edith Lagos it shows a level of downplaying and even support (or at least something that will be seen by most people as support) that shouldn’t be accepted. BLM and Antifa being far-left terrorist organizations is a myth created to scare suburban moms (more akin to how José Antonio Kast views any protester ever), SL is real.

And even from a purely political perspective, this was a really bad move by Castillo. I think the liberal criticism of Nina Turner is stupid but I think it’d be dumb and harmful to the overall cause if Bernie made her his Chief of Staff or some such position. Castillo cannot afford to alienate people.