VT-Sen(Trafalgar): Welch 50 Malloy 43

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

LOL yeah no. Good job making it so all your polls are suspect guys

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are gonna be closer than expected until we start voting they always do, look at NY Hochul up only 6 she will win 55)45 by 10 and so will Welch

[wbrocks67]

LOL yeah no. Good job making it so all your polls are suspect guys

It's fine, come right before election day, they'll herd a bunch of their polls to like Walker +1, Fetterman +2, CCM/Laxalt tied or something so that they can keep their A rating.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, what?

They indeed seem to make these numbers up or just conduct fraudulent polls here. Trafalagar always seems to find relatively close races, even in safe D or safe R states. Somehow they tend to be better than most others in the Midwest. A weird pollster.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Just because a poll is off massively doesn't mean it was made up. Otherwise someone can say that ABC Biden+17 in WI poll was fake.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This poll is obviously garbage(as are their rosy for democrats polls) HOWEVER the non college white vote in Vermont is probably far to the left of the national numbers of that group. So I would be surprised if it got a lot redder at some point

[Alben Barkley]

Very cool result from an A- pollster! (Realistically, Trafalgar's greatest weakness has always, always been that they're incapable of showing landslides. You always see them coming out with like D+10 or whatever in safe areas that end up at D+30. Their polling in actual close races remains quite good, though.)

Um… do you not see how it would only look “quite good” because they always show close races, therefore whatever the actual reault in an actual close race is, they can at least claim they were “close?”

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

As of right now Peter Welch is winning this race 68-28.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

As of right now Peter Welch is winning this race 68-28.

So only a 33-point miss?

Their motto should be: "Trafalgar - making up numbers since 2016"

[soundchaser]

Trafalgar has belonged in the garbage for ages. Real ones knew.

[wbrocks67]

This one may be their worst of the entire cycle. I'm convinced this was 100000% definitely made up.

[Lief 🗽]

Remember when people on this forum got mad at us for correctly pointing out that Trafalgar's polls are fake?

[wbrocks67]

Remember when people on this forum got mad at us for correctly pointing out that Trafalgar's polls are fake?

Calthrina is particularly silent today.

[Asta]

33 point miss in a Senate race is pure comedy.

[Zache]

Gonna be so cringe when everyone pretends Trafalgar isn't making sh*t up next election cycle.

[Nyvin]

I remember posting something like this a few months ago - Trafalgar is one of the most extremely consistent polling firms (and in a very bad way "consistent") out there.   Nearly everything was either between D+1 and D+3 or R+1 and R+3 with only the predicted blowout races (like VT-Gov) going slightly above a 3% margin.   

It makes it very highly suspect of them not even actually conducting polls but just using an algorithm to make up fake numbers based on past PVI or something.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590764793417592833

[wbrocks67]

And it's exactly how they got lucky in past years too.