VT-Sen(Trafalgar): Welch 50 Malloy 43
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  VT-Sen(Trafalgar): Welch 50 Malloy 43
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Author Topic: VT-Sen(Trafalgar): Welch 50 Malloy 43  (Read 2603 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: September 09, 2022, 03:59:15 PM »
« edited: September 09, 2022, 04:03:36 PM by Minnesota Mike »




LOL.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2022, 03:59:35 PM »

They make up their numbers.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2022, 04:04:30 PM »

They're just making this up. Incredibly obvious fraud. According to Trafalgar, the senate races in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Vermont, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Washington are all within 5 points. It would be funny if I had patience for it.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2022, 04:04:34 PM »

Regardless of how you feel about the average Trafalgar poll, this one seems like *extremely* obvious trash.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2022, 04:06:47 PM »

Very cool result from an A- pollster! (Realistically, Trafalgar's greatest weakness has always, always been that they're incapable of showing landslides. You always see them coming out with like D+10 or whatever in safe areas that end up at D+30. Their polling in actual close races remains quite good, though.)
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2022, 04:11:20 PM »

Democrats are only up by 7 in Vermont but are up by 2 in Wisconsin. Sure.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2022, 04:15:43 PM »

Nope, absolutely not. Throw the entire pollster in the garbage. What a ridiculous result.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2022, 04:20:52 PM »

#realpollnumbers
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2022, 04:23:50 PM »

I honestly wonder if their numbers are completely made up or if their algorithm to "adjust" for shy Trump voters is so broken it will not allow for Dem blowouts. 
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2022, 04:24:44 PM »

It’s giving Rasmussen’s 2010 Hawaii senate poll results.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2022, 04:25:07 PM »

I honestly wonder if their numbers are completely made up or if their algorithm to "adjust" for shy Trump voters is so broken it will not allow for Dem blowouts. 

I think they literally just arbitrarily add points to the Republicans.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2022, 04:28:28 PM »

This pollster is a complete joke and I’m not paying attention to anything they say from now on
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2022, 04:51:30 PM »

This is what we call “literally making up numbers and fraudulently passing them off as an actual poll”
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2022, 04:52:54 PM »

I've known Robert Cahaly for some time. Not well, and I've never liked him much, but I know him.

He is a credible person with real clients who pay him for his services. He knows polling and how to conduct a good poll. But if you know how to do something well, that means you also know how to do it poorly.

He is tight-lipped about his methodology for these publicly released polls. My suspicion is he is not consistent in how he is conducting them. Ultimately his objective is to release PR and fundraising tools for the Republican party, and he likely applies the methodological rigor (or lack thereof) to polls to accomplish that goal. His polls showing Republicans narrowly trailing in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (believable based on fundamentals and the averages publicly available) likely featured in plenty GOP fundraising emails and were likely more methodologically sound. His polling showing incredible Republican reach opportunities in places like NY and here was likely not as rigorous (but featured in fundraising emails all the same). Whatever he needs to do to get the result he needs.

But there's no way to know for sure since he shares zero details. It's possible he is making numbers up. It's possible he is seeing something none of the rest of us are. It's possible he is a partisan hack. It's possible he's ahead of his time.

It's also possible that a combination of the above are true, or none of them and I'm completely missing the reality.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2022, 04:55:03 PM »

#EveryRaceIsCompetitive
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: September 09, 2022, 05:04:37 PM »



Lol, Welch is at 50% he's not gonna lose
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Sestak
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« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2022, 05:40:51 PM »

Lmao sure
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Duke of York
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2022, 05:47:08 PM »

This is nowhere near an accurate poll. Im convinced at this point they make up numbers to suit a narrative.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2022, 05:53:45 PM »

Please let this be the year that Trafalgar finally loses its credibility and any of its accurate polls from years' past were just luck.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2022, 07:23:49 PM »

Please let this be the year that Trafalgar finally loses its credibility and any of its accurate polls from years' past were just luck.

I personally thought they should've lost their credibility with their Newsom recall +8 poll, but then they oddly go VA and NJ close. So hopefully this year is more definitive in knowing.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2022, 07:26:42 PM »

Xing and Sir Muhammad thinks that TRAFALGAR is the Gold Standard they underpolled NY Gov race I rest my case
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2022, 08:48:33 PM »

I’ve seen some bad trafalgar polls before, this might be the worst one by several miles.

Safe D, the GOP are idiots if they spend even a penny here.
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NYDem
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« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2022, 09:16:51 PM »

Waiting for someone to defend this because "Trafalgar was the only accurate pollster in 2020" or something.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2022, 09:23:20 PM »

Waiting for someone to defend this because "Trafalgar was the only accurate pollster in 2020" or something.

I'm certainly not going to defend this, because this poll is definitely an outlier. Welch will clear 60% without much difficulty.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2022, 01:04:32 AM »

Maybe some Vermonters are just really into that fun fact about not electing Democrats.
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