Shapiro strikes me as the kind of candidate who can outperform the top of the ticket in an under-the-radar race that’s overshadowed by the presidential contest but who ends up stumbling in a far more contested, high-stakes, high-profile race in a much more unfavorable environment (not unlike Matt Cartwright, but even less skilled at pretending to be moderate). I think the race is a Toss-up/Tilt R for now, but I don’t see Shapiro outperforming Lamb/Fetterman or Whitmer by more than 1-2 points assuming Republicans even run a 'generic' campaign against him (which Barletta seems to be doing?). It should also be noted that Wolf's approval rating in PA in fact isn’t any higher than Whitmer's in MI, so not sure why we should expect a massive backlash in MI but a status quo election in PA — seems a little weird to consider PA an uphill battle for the GOP but MI no worse than a Toss-up/Tilt R for them.
So as of today, I’d say yes, with the order (of most to least likely to flip to GOP) being WI > MI > PA and WI > PA > MI not being out of the question at all.
It's still a 304 map until RS crack the blue Wall Hawley said that yesterday and Graham that D's are still Favs to hold MI, PA and WI, CO NV and AZ
Biden Approvals are Solid with3% unemployment except for Border Security in TX and FL
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