Will Republicans sweep the rust belt trio of governorships?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Republicans sweep the rust belt trio of governorships (PA, MI, WI)?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is certain to win

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Shapiro is certain to win

Definitely not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is certain to win

Definitely not.

You do know Biden is at 52/48 in IPSOS THE CURRENT FORCAST FROM COOK IS WE NET 51 seats in Senate including PA with Josh Fetterman and Tom Nelson or Barnes in WI and 10 seats in H and Rs 10 seats in H Biden is only net net negative on the border he is net positive on everything else

[coloradocowboi]

I’m not sure they will take any. But PA feels out of reach, except on a very good night

[Xing]

Lean yes, though PA is probably the one Democrats are most likely to hold.

[😥]

Shapiro will win in Pennsylvania, so no

[Galeel]

it's possible but I'll bet they only get 2/3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

it's possible but I'll bet they only get 2/3

Biden is net positive on everything but the Border that's why SISOLAK is struggling we can solidify the blue wall but the red wall is insecure due to Border Security 30/65 Biden Disapproval on based on TX/FL

Biden isn't jet negative in MO, PA, and WI that's why Zigby and IPSOS have Biden at 50/48 the exact Approvals he won with

[ShadowRocket]

it's possible but I'll bet they only get 2/3

I think that sounds about right at this juncture.  I think Shapiro wins, but I'd be surprised if Evers doesn't lose and I'm 50/50 on Whitmer.

[TML]

At this point, I'd give this a 1-in-3 chance of happening.

[Utah Neolib]

Yes. Barletta isn’t the best candidate, but he’ll still win. Kleefish (possibly Craig imo) wins by the largest margin though.

[Ferguson97]

I think they're moderately favored in Wisconsin, slightly favored in Michigan, and Pennsylvania is a tossup.

[xavier110]

Yes

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Probably not. I would say all three are pretty close to pure tossups at this point, maybe with WI being slightly easier for the GOP to grab than the other two, so overall I think it’s more likely than not that Democrats retain at least one of the three. That said, I definitely wouldn’t be shocked if the GOP does get the clean sweep. I also wouldn’t be all that much more surprised if the Democrats manage to do the same.

[SnowLabrador]

Most likely, yes.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I feel like the GOP overexaggerate Whitmer's unpopularity. I disagreed with her policies in 2020, but if they hated her as much as they claimed, Biden wouldn't have won the state. However I think the GOP has a decent chance of winning all three states especially Wisconsin, seeing how the Wisconsin Supreme Court made Evers term into a do nothing one, for better or for worse.

[MT Treasurer]

Shapiro strikes me as the kind of candidate who can outperform the top of the ticket in an under-the-radar race that’s overshadowed by the presidential contest but who ends up stumbling in a far more contested, high-stakes, high-profile race in a much more unfavorable environment (not unlike Matt Cartwright, but even less skilled at pretending to be moderate). I think the race is a Toss-up/Tilt R for now, but I don’t see Shapiro outperforming Lamb/Fetterman or Whitmer by more than 1-2 points assuming Republicans even run a 'generic' campaign against him (which Barletta seems to be doing?). It should also be noted that Wolf's approval rating in PA in fact isn’t any higher than Whitmer's in MI, so not sure why we should expect a massive backlash in MI but a status quo election in PA — seems a little weird to consider PA an uphill battle for the GOP but MI no worse than a Toss-up/Tilt R for them.

So as of today, I’d say yes, with the order (of most to least likely to flip to GOP) being WI > MI > PA and WI > PA > MI not being out of the question at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro strikes me as the kind of candidate who can outperform the top of the ticket in an under-the-radar race that’s overshadowed by the presidential contest but who ends up stumbling in a far more contested, high-stakes, high-profile race in a much more unfavorable environment (not unlike Matt Cartwright, but even less skilled at pretending to be moderate). I think the race is a Toss-up/Tilt R for now, but I don’t see Shapiro outperforming Lamb/Fetterman or Whitmer by more than 1-2 points assuming Republicans even run a 'generic' campaign against him (which Barletta seems to be doing?). It should also be noted that Wolf's approval rating in PA in fact isn’t any higher than Whitmer's in MI, so not sure why we should expect a massive backlash in MI but a status quo election in PA — seems a little weird to consider PA an uphill battle for the GOP but MI no worse than a Toss-up/Tilt R for them.

So as of today, I’d say yes, with the order (of most to least likely to flip to GOP) being WI > MI > PA and WI > PA > MI not being out of the question at all.

It's still a 304 map until RS crack the blue Wall Hawley said that yesterday and Graham that D's are still Favs to hold MI, PA and WI, CO NV and AZ


Biden Approvals are Solid with3% unemployment except for Border Security in TX and FL

[Calthrina950]

Uncertain. As of now, I view Wisconsin as Lean R, Michigan as a Tossup/Tilt R, and Pennsylvania as a pure Tossup. Shapiro probably has a better chance of winning than Evers and Whitmer at this point but is by no means a lock.

[Real Texan Politics]

My gut says yes, at the very least they take Wisconsin and Michigan.

[One Term Floridian]

All I’ll say is the scenario the GOP takes all 3 is likelier than the scenario in which the Dems keep all 3

[Chips]

All I’ll say is the scenario the GOP takes all 3 is likelier than the scenario in which the Dems keep all 3

[David Hume]

Shapiro strikes me as the kind of candidate who can outperform the top of the ticket in an under-the-radar race that’s overshadowed by the presidential contest but who ends up stumbling in a far more contested, high-stakes, high-profile race in a much more unfavorable environment (not unlike Matt Cartwright, but even less skilled at pretending to be moderate). I think the race is a Toss-up/Tilt R for now, but I don’t see Shapiro outperforming Lamb/Fetterman or Whitmer by more than 1-2 points assuming Republicans even run a 'generic' campaign against him (which Barletta seems to be doing?). It should also be noted that Wolf's approval rating in PA in fact isn’t any higher than Whitmer's in MI, so not sure why we should expect a massive backlash in MI but a status quo election in PA — seems a little weird to consider PA an uphill battle for the GOP but MI no worse than a Toss-up/Tilt R for them.

So as of today, I’d say yes, with the order (of most to least likely to flip to GOP) being WI > MI > PA and WI > PA > MI not being out of the question at all.

MI is more elastic than PA, so the likely red wave will have a larger effect. Besides, I think the long term trend will be MI shifting right while PA being relatively stable. In the near future MI will be to the right of PA, but I am not sure exactly when.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 50/48 in IPSOS and ZOGBY we hold the rust belt unless polls say otherwise