2020 Senate Predictions

[DabbingSanta]

Current map with my projected margins in lean and swing states, from most Dem to most Rep.

New Hampshire: +14 Dem
Colorado: +12 Dem
Minnesota: +12 Dem
Virginia: +12 Dem
Michigan: +6 Dem
---
Arizona: +3 Dem
North Carolina: +0.5 Rep
Maine: +1 Rep
Montana: +3 Rep
Iowa: +5 Rep
---
Georgia: +6 Rep
Georgia Special*: +10 Rep
Kansas: +10 Rep
Texas: +12 Rep
Alaska: +14 Rep

* margin of final vote on Jan 5, 2021

[DabbingSanta]

My senate forecast as of August 1st, 2020.





Senate: 51-49 Dem majority

R -> D Flips: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina
D -> R Flips: Alabama

[DabbingSanta]

My forecast:



Actual results:



Postmortem on my forecast:

I predicted the wrong winner in three states (IA, ME, NC), and did not expect Georgia's regular senate election to go into a runoff.  I did not predict a margin for Georgia's special election.

My most accurate states were South Carolina, Texas, and Georgia.

My biggest misses were Arkansas, where I did not expect Tom Cotton's Libertarian opponent to get over 30% of the vote, and Maine, where Collins outperformed all expectations and won a near double digit victory.  I was also inaccurate in Iowa and Montana.

Here are my predicted margins from before the election vs the actual margins as of Nov 8th, 2020. We won't know Alaska for a while, so I'll leave that one out of the equation.

South Carolina      +10 Republican     +10.3 Republican     (0.3)
Texas         +10 Republican               +9.8 Republican       (0.2)
Kansas         +7 Republican               +11.9 Republican     (4.9)
Alaska         +6 Republican                N/A
Montana      +3 Republican                +10.0 Republican     (7.0)
Georgia         +2 Republican              +1.9 Republican       (0.1)
Iowa         +0.5 Democrat                 +6.6 Republican       (7.1)
Maine         +2 Democrat                  +8.9 Republican       (10.9)
North Carolina      +4 Democrat         +1.7 Republican       (5.7)
Arizona-S      +5 Democrat                +2.6 Democrat         (2.4)
Michigan      +6 Democrat                 +1.5 Democrat         (4.5)
Minnesota      +8 Democrat               +5.3 Democrat         (2.7)
Colorado      +10 Democrat               +9.0 Democrat         (1.0)

[DabbingSanta]

Alaska update...

Forecast: +6 Sullivan

Actual: +13.3 Sullivan