Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[MT Treasurer]

I’m in Gadsden right now.. a lot more signs are out today for both candidates. Jones still has more than Moore.

Yeah, it's pretty obvious that polls are underestimating Jones' strength in this race IMO.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.

I think it's possible pollsters are herding towards Moore bc no one wants to be the dumbass who predicted a Dem would win in Alabama if Moore does pull it out (plus the fact that this race seems to have nothing but crap/questionable pollsters). But we shall find out Tuesday.

Yes, I agree with both of you. IMO this is definitely more likely to happen than many people here believe, and Moore is only ahead by 4 in the RCP polling average anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

The Washington Post also has Jones up 3, and even they underestimated Northam in VA.

[MT Treasurer]

Jones winning by 8 is pretty unlikely (though definitely within the realms of possibility), but I wouldn't simply dismiss the poll as junk (see also: Quinnipiac in VA). In fact, I would not be shocked if one of those "outliers" turned out to be pretty accurate in the end.

[MT Treasurer]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

[MT Treasurer]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Byrne wouldn't be terrible. He would run particularly strong in south Alabama. I'm not entirely sure who the strongest Republican would be.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well, and Jones really needs to do well in Mobile and Baldwin County in 2020. I'd be okay with Aderholt as well, but I don't think Roby could win the primary (or the GE, for that matter) after what happened in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

Another reason to "discount turnout reports" is that this is a +30 R state. Even if dem turnout is way up and GOP turnout way down, there is still a huge whole to climb out out.

The electorate in this special election isn't going to be nearly as R-friendly as the one that turned out in 2016, but then again you probably knew this already.

I'm not paying any attention to "turnout reports", especially after what happened last year and last month.

[MT Treasurer]

Exits are beyond terrible for Moore/Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

37% Democrats
43% Republicans
20% Independents

[MT Treasurer]

Jones is going to overtake Moore soon.

[MT Treasurer]

Roy Moore Republican    527,231    49.2%    
Doug Jones Democrat    527,098    49.2%

Wow. Jones has this, though.

[MT Treasurer]

NYTimes call it for Jones.

[MT Treasurer]

Let's take a moment to realize what's happened here.

The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

Consider the ways this could have been avoided:

Trump could have nominated someone other than Sessions to be Attorney General.

Bentley could have appointed someone other than Strange as a placeholder, which would have avoided the hint of corruption.

Ivey could have left the special election next November instead of moving it up to this year.

Any one of these would have avoided the loss of the seat.  There's a lot of political stupidity at any time.  But it's rare to see such consistently creative stupidity as the GOP committed here.

This, so much. Especially Ivey's decision to move the special election up to this year was incredibly stupid. I hate to brag about this, but I called this before.