AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

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https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1601204674954424320?s=20&t=YsaltoTIPQ59rT...

Bizarrely wouldn't polling like this suggest she actually potentially draws more Republicans or Republican-leaning independents than she would Democrats in an independent bid?

These numbers (if accurate) suggest she has no path in a three-way race and at least on the surface would take more right-leaning votes than left-leaning votes. Especially if AZ Republican primary voters produce another superstar nominee who will be prone to losing some Republican voters, I'm not yet seeing how she has boxed out Gallego/the left like many are saying she has unless she is able to drastically turn around these numbers in a way that improves her standing with independents while paradoxically losing Republican support.

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Buried in this story is that Gallego has all but launched his campaign and Raul Grijalva has already promised to endorse.

https://twitter.com/eschor/status/1601286535827009536?s=20&t=sEoygQkc9SGaHST...

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https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1601284645559357441?s=20&t=oOK0XBoucD...

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When was the last time a candidate who lost a statewide general election made a successful statewide run immediately the following cycle? Particularly failed gubernatorial candidates?

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Sinema drops out shortly before the filing deadline blaming "partisan politics-obsessed Washington" or something jargony like that for what is entirely the result of her own decisions and actions, spends the lead-up to the general election both-sidesing and denigrating the candidates to replace her in a last-ditch effort to establish moral superiority, and then after the election is over finds a way to claim credit for the victory of whoever wins.

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The only successful strategy the Republican establishment has employed in recent years to stop disaster candidates from winning primaries is propping up stalking horses that siphon voters from the toxic candidate's base (see Kansas 2020) - entirely possible Lamb winds up doing this vis a vis Lake.

(The stalking horse candidate is often, but not always, an unknowing and/or unwilling participant in this strategy.)

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So far only Mark Lamb has announced so far, KTR is considering it and its possible she jumps in. As for Kari Lake I think its possible but her running could split the MAGA vote between Lamb and makes it much easier for KTR to win the primary.

Splitting the MAGA vote in the primary is the best - and possibly only - path the mainstream party leadership really has going forward to address the candidate quality mess. See the Kansas 2020 primary as a prime example of this.

It's obviously not fool-proof (didn't work in Pennsylvania in 2022) and is not a systemic solution nor a sustainable one in the long-term, and it requires significant energy, investment, and perfectly-choreographed moves to get it right, but will be interesting to see if its used effectively this cycle (right now it looks like its not - the strategy instead seems to be recruiting more mainstream self-funders).

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So far only Mark Lamb has announced so far, KTR is considering it and its possible she jumps in. As for Kari Lake I think its possible but her running could split the MAGA vote between Lamb and makes it much easier for KTR to win the primary.

Splitting the MAGA vote in the primary is the best - and possibly only - path the mainstream party leadership really has going forward to address the candidate quality mess. See the Kansas 2020 primary as a prime example of this.

It's obviously not fool-proof (didn't work in Pennsylvania in 2022) and is not a systemic solution nor a sustainable one in the long-term, and it requires significant energy, investment, and perfectly-choreographed moves to get it right, but will be interesting to see if its used effectively this cycle (right now it looks like its not - the strategy instead seems to be recruiting more mainstream self-funders).

Well, depends on if MAGA candidates (here meaning ones similar to Lake) are getting stronger or weaker in the long run; Arizona specifically has long had a pretty intense divide between, let's say, a conspiracy wing and a non-conspiracy wing, and the former has never actually eclipsed 50% in a contested 21st-century statewide primary. (Lake won by 5 points, 48-43, in the midst of an unusual primary turnout surge for 'conspiracy wing' candidates, whose repetition feels at least uncertain). They've also long had problems uniting in the absence of Trump endorsements.

Almost as a rule in the Trump era, 'candidates who win primaries narrowly because of Trump endorsements, then lose the general election', do not win repeat primaries. (Kris Kobach and Katie Arrington come to mind, as do others on the House level). They do sometimes successfully run for lower offices, though (again, Kris Kobach and John Gibbs come to mind). In that sense, Lake winning a primary after her losing her first bid would be a pretty unusual event. (Also, Lake triggered an attempt at unifying around a consensus anti-Lake, which was really unusual in GOP primaries -- nothing like this happened to even quite controversial Trump choices elsewhere, like Herbster or Vance or Oz). So I am skeptical of Lake winning a primary here in 2024, though I'm sure a poll conducted now would show her winning purely through name recognition. (Also, Lamb is if anything a deeper conspiracy-wing candidate than Lake, and there really isn't room for two of them in a single primary.)

The PA-Sen 2022 primary is an extremely strange one because you could argue with a straight face that any of the top three candidates were the MAGA candidates; Oz had the Trump endorsement, Barnette had the conspiracy-theorizing, but McCormick had the on-the-ground MAGA support and actual, like, support pattern. (There was also a regionalist aspect to that where Oz ran stronger in eastern PA and McCormick ran stronger in western PA). That primary in particular feels really hard to draw conclusions from that apply to Arizona. (Also, like, Oz deliberately tried to appeal to more educated voters in the primary! While having the Trump endorsement! The race had really unique patterns.)

Yeah, really good points all around especially on PA. PA also lists the home county of candidates on the ballot which makes voting intensely regionalized especially in crowded fields.

Interesting note on the "candidates who win primaries narrowly because of Trump endorsements, then lose the general election do not win repeat primaries" phenomenon - I do wonder if that will continue in post-election denial GOP primaries.

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Sinema and Pelosi never got along when she was a House member (she was always one of the performative anti-Pelosi votes for Speaker) whereas Gallego is reportedly very popular among his fellow members and a stronger fundraiser for the DCCC. This isn't too surprising given that context.

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It's creepy for a politician to actually use the punditese word "eyeing." Bring back the days when they at least pretended to be asked to run.

I was going to say....I don't remember the last time I heard somebody who wasn't a beltway reporter use the term "eyeing" like that. Really weird stuff.