2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Demaio raised 100k in 2 hours, 250k in 24 hours for congressional bid. The website crashed for several minutes because it had so much traffic.

https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2019/08/06/demaio-reports-raising-250000-in-first-24-hours-as-congressional-candidate/

Likely D

He's primarying the law-breaking nincompoop that is Duncan hunter. A primary win would be both an improvement for the CA congressional delegation, as strange as that seems, and probably pushes what should be a safe R seat back closer to that leaning. Also he is preferable to Issa, who is also looking at the potential to replace Hunter.

Oh I thought he was running in CA-52 like he did in 2014.

If he was it would be safe D. As if a Republican would ever beat a scandal free Democratic incumbent in a Clinton +22 district, lol.

DeMaio ran for CA-52 in 2014 and lost by 3%, fwiw.

2014 is so irrelevant. Peters won by 13 in 2016 and 28 in 2018 and the seat is only getting bluer.

[lfromnj]

Also 2014 is clearly based on 2012 as 2016 didn't exist yet lol, It was only obama +7 in 2012 but jumped super left to Clinton +22. Similar seats include Il 10th(obama +17 to Clinton +29) and Az 9th(Obama +4 to Clinton +16). Obviously an obama +7 seat would be competitive in a R wave year with lower polarization.

[IceSpear]

Demaio raised 100k in 2 hours, 250k in 24 hours for congressional bid. The website crashed for several minutes because it had so much traffic.

https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2019/08/06/demaio-reports-raising-250000-in-first-24-hours-as-congressional-candidate/

Likely D

He's primarying the law-breaking nincompoop that is Duncan hunter. A primary win would be both an improvement for the CA congressional delegation, as strange as that seems, and probably pushes what should be a safe R seat back closer to that leaning. Also he is preferable to Issa, who is also looking at the potential to replace Hunter.

Oh I thought he was running in CA-52 like he did in 2014.

If he was it would be safe D. As if a Republican would ever beat a scandal free Democratic incumbent in a Clinton +22 district, lol.

DeMaio ran for CA-52 in 2014 and lost by 3%, fwiw.

So he lost in a red wave back when the district was merely Obama +6 rather than Clinton +22. Thanks for proving my point.

[Politician]

I'm just pointing it out, no need to be so rude.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Don't think this has been posted yet.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1159584277161488385?s=20

[lfromnj]

Don't think this has been posted yet.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1159584277161488385?s=20

This is probably the district D's could pick up if the courts allow the primary law to hold. Democrat turnout should actually be pretty high, so if Democrats get 2 candidates they could pick up this seat compared to what might be an R clown car trying to pick up a safe seat.

[Young Conservative]

Carl Demaio reports raising $450k in 72 hours from 500 dollars with 20 more fundraising events scheduled by the end of September and “3000 active donor pledges coming in soon”. Cash on hand is over $700k.

https://t.co/99rxxg2wV2

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Carl Demaio reports raising $450k in 72 hours from 500 dollars with 20 more fundraising events scheduled by the end of September and “3000 active donor pledges coming in soon”. Cash on hand is over $700k.

https://t.co/99rxxg2wV2

He will primary Hunter and make the seat Likely R.

[Politician]

Carl Demaio reports raising $450k in 72 hours from 500 dollars with 20 more fundraising events scheduled by the end of September and “3000 active donor pledges coming in soon”. Cash on hand is over $700k.

https://t.co/99rxxg2wV2

He will primary Hunter and make the seat Likely R.

It would be Safe R with DeMaio.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Carl Demaio reports raising $450k in 72 hours from 500 dollars with 20 more fundraising events scheduled by the end of September and “3000 active donor pledges coming in soon”. Cash on hand is over $700k.

https://t.co/99rxxg2wV2

He will primary Hunter and make the seat Likely R.

It would be Safe R with DeMaio.

It's California so I'm not going to be too bullish here.

[morgieb]

Carl Demaio reports raising $450k in 72 hours from 500 dollars with 20 more fundraising events scheduled by the end of September and “3000 active donor pledges coming in soon”. Cash on hand is over $700k.

https://t.co/99rxxg2wV2

He will primary Hunter and make the seat Likely R.

It would be Safe R with DeMaio.

It's California so I'm not going to be too bullish here.

Even Trump won the seat by 15. The only reason it looks competitive is because of Hunter's problems.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Carl Demaio reports raising $450k in 72 hours from 500 dollars with 20 more fundraising events scheduled by the end of September and “3000 active donor pledges coming in soon”. Cash on hand is over $700k.

https://t.co/99rxxg2wV2

He will primary Hunter and make the seat Likely R.

It would be Safe R with DeMaio.

It's California so I'm not going to be too bullish here.

Even Trump won the seat by 15. The only reason it looks competitive is because of Hunter's problems.

There were a good number of seats that swung over 15 points left in California in 2016. Not saying it’s likely it happens here in 2020, but weirder things have happened. A mediocre Trump win in CA-50 could bring down Hunter, but that might require someone other than Campa Najjar

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate McMurray launches second challenge against GOP Rep. Chris Collins

[beesley]

Former MN Senate President Michelle Fischbach contemplating a run in MN-7.

http://m.startribune.com/republicans-again-hopeful-in-the-seventh-but-collin-peterson-won-t-be-easy-to-vanquish/533124332/

[S019]

Former MN Senate President Michelle Fischbach contemplating a run in MN-7.

http://m.startribune.com/republicans-again-hopeful-in-the-seventh-but-collin-peterson-won-t-be-easy-to-vanquish/533124332/

Likely R, if she runs and wins the primary

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Former MN Senate President Michelle Fischbach contemplating a run in MN-7.

http://m.startribune.com/republicans-again-hopeful-in-the-seventh-but-collin-peterson-won-t-be-easy-to-vanquish/533124332/

Likely R, if she runs and wins the primary

That’s too generous. To Peterson, that is

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

[morgieb]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Not really. This is probably the first cycle (at least in the last 20 years) where most people think Peterson is in a sh**tload of trouble.

[96FJV]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2019/08/12/curt-schilling-considering-running-congress-diamondbacks-red-sox/1993548001/

Don't know how serious to take this. I'd assume he would run in the 1st District. He did say he would challenge Warren in 2018 and didn't.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Not really. This is probably the first cycle (at least in the last 20 years) where most people think Peterson is in a sh**tload of trouble.

Lol, yes really. They were going ballistic in 2018 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Not really. This is probably the first cycle (at least in the last 20 years) where most people think Peterson is in a sh**tload of trouble.

Lol, yes really. They were going ballistic in 2018 🤷🏻‍♂️

Not serious. There hasn’t been a single Republican in the MA delegation since 1995 and I doubt that nutjob is the one to change it.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Not really. This is probably the first cycle (at least in the last 20 years) where most people think Peterson is in a sh**tload of trouble.

Lol, yes really. They were going ballistic in 2018 🤷🏻‍♂️

Not serious. There hasn’t been a single Republican in the MA delegation since 1995 and I doubt that nutjob is the one to change it.

Do you realize Peterson is in Minnesota, not Massachusetts? And in a district that voted for Trump by 30% no less

[96FJV]

He is gonna run in Arizona not Massachusetts if he does run.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

He is gonna run in Arizona not Massachusetts if he does run.

AZ-02 is not flipping in 2020. MAYBE in 2022 if a Democrat is president and it's a strong R wave.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1161622775649509376?s=19

and

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1161647129972105216?s=19