Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Maps? County numbers?

[Benjamin Frank]

Me, ten minutes ago, before going to the NYT results page for this race I haven't been following: I have absolutely no idea what issues, if any, this primary was fought on, other than that Turner is the Nina Turner and Brown is a transphobe or something. Not very inspiring options!
Me, after going to said results page: "It will pit the establishment favorite, Shontel Brown, who has the endorsement of Hillary Clinton, against the left’s favored candidate, Nina Turner, who has the backing of Senator Bernie Sanders." oh. so it's part of the 2016 forever primary. wonderful.

Seriously, that f**king primary is going to become the American center-left's equivalent of THIGMOO factional drama from the 70s and 80s, isn't it? We're never going to be free of attempts to relitigate it.

If you check out Democratic candidate web sites, there are a number of candidates trying to blur the differences, and I gather Shontel Brown is one of those, but fundamentally, they represent distinct ideologies  and world views.  I reject that this is any kind of personality fight or that this is solely a result of the 2016 Presidential primary.

[Comrade Funk]

I knew the "Zionists" would be blamed. They control everything after all, as they have for generations!

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 25,494 50.42%
Nina Turner 22,167 43.84%  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I picked Shontel Brown Great news

[Donerail]

I knew the "Zionists" would be blamed. They control everything after all, as they have for generations!

DMFI dumped a couple mil into this race — basically equivalent to all other PAC spending combined. I'm sorry if the facts bother you or something

[Benjamin Frank]

If you check the prediction above of who Atlas members thought would win, it was overwhelmingly for Turner.  This is why I ignore all the comments like 'of course X is going to win so Y must be a grifter.'

[JerryArkansas]

I knew the "Zionists" would be blamed. They control everything after all, as they have for generations!

DMFI dumped a couple mil into this race — basically equivalent to all other PAC spending combined. I'm sorry if the facts bother you or something

Turner outspent Brown, but blame the jews.  You guys always love to do that.

[pppolitics]

Bye Bye, Nina!

[brucejoel99]

The fact that Turner went from a 35-point lead in her own polls to outright losing this race is just incredible.

It's worse than that: the fact that Turner went from as high as a 32-point lead in her opponent's internals to outright losing - & rather handily at that - is what's perhaps most incredible about all of this here.

[Benjamin Frank]

   Who will win?
#1
Nina Turner       
129 (78.7%)
#2
Shontel Brown       
32 (19.5%)
#3
Jeff Johnson       
3 (1.8%)


I'll just post this here and maybe use it from time to time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zionists have the right to involve themselves in Dem primaries and so do anti-Zionists. But either can get blamed for outcomes they help cause. At the end of the day DMFI is just another interest group and so are their ideological opposites.
Worth noting DMFI was not the only player in this result. The CBC was a huge player in this, as was the local party establishment as well. Turner ultimately was rather thin in terms of heavyweight backing even if she was broadly the most popular on social media and among activists.

[Gracile]

The fact that Turner went from a 35-point lead in her own polls to outright losing this race is just incredible.

It's worse than that: the fact that Turner went from as high as a 32-point lead in her opponent's internals to outright losing - & rather handily at that - is what's perhaps most incredible about all of this here.

I'd say that's more an indication that polling is basically crap (we've known that for a while, but we were flying blind with only these old internals as evidence of the state of the race).

[Zaybay]

I see why DFP released a FL-20 poll yesterday and not an OH-11 poll.

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown    28,210   50.05%
Nina Turner   25,045   44.44%

[Badger]

Maps? County numbers?

Wow. Surprised larae appears to have missed out on second place, especially to that slimeball Ron Hood.

The telling lesson here is that the winner was of course endorsed by Trump and have little else going for him over a host of elected officials, and the second-place finisher probably festoon his campaign signs as forever Trumper, I kid you not.

Once again, the Republican party has proven itself to be a cult of personality

[Benjamin Frank]

There is a slim possibility that Shontel Brown will receive more votes than all the Republican Primary votes in the Ohio 15th district combined.

[Ferguson97]

There is a slim possibility that Shontel Brown will receive more votes than all the Republican Primary votes in the Ohio 15th district combined.

Ohio's 11th district is D+30 so this would not be surprising in the slightest

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Maybe it wasn't a great idea run in a district a guy and gal who you constantly sh**t on got 80% of the vote in your district ?, just a little advice going forward

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Turner conceded.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1422741544449236999?s=21

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I had a bad feeling about this one.
Oh well, onto Kurt Schrader

[Donerail]

I knew the "Zionists" would be blamed. They control everything after all, as they have for generations!

DMFI dumped a couple mil into this race — basically equivalent to all other PAC spending combined. I'm sorry if the facts bother you or something

Turner outspent Brown, but blame the jews.  You guys always love to do that.

In campaign dollars. Brown got three times the spending ($900k vs $2.7 mil) from outside groups. ~2/3 of that was DMFI. Just reporting the facts here.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I knew the "Zionists" would be blamed. They control everything after all, as they have for generations!

Apartheid is when American Jews participate in American politics, and the more Jews donate to a candidate I don't like, the more apartheider it is!

Anyway, all eyes on Pocan's twitter account tonight.

[Benjamin Frank]

Shontel Brown 29,847 49.78%
Nina Turner     26,812 44.71%

[Benjamin Frank]

Final numbers apparently

50,456 votes
Mike Carey       18,655 36.97%
Jeff LaRe            6,724 13.33%
Ron Hood           6,632 13.14%
Bob Peterson      6,356 12.6%
Ruth Edmonds    5,052 10.01%
Thomas Hwang   2,480 4.92%
Stephanie Kunze 2,344 4.65%
Thad Cooperrider 1,061 2.10%
Omar Tarazi          899 1.78%
John Adams         172 0.34%
Eric Clark              81 0.16%


16,130 votes
Allison Russo 13,585 84.22%
Greg Betts      2,545 15.78%