The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Coldstream]

I’m not even convinced Trump would win the primary. What would he run on? He has no achievements and having lost he can’t exactly run on his electoral record. Even his supporters would want someone who could actually beat Biden/Harris not a proven loser.

[Coldstream]

Adam Kinzinger is starting a new organization called Country First:
https://www.country1st.com/

I wonder if he could be worth watching as a possible dark horse contender.

He has absolutely no chance in the primary or the general.

Maybe, but it’s not like he has anything to lose. And he’ll only have a chance - slim as it may be - to shift the Overton window back to his kind of politics by running.

[Coldstream]

https://twitter.com/Kevinbooker99/status/1383517997252239371
Please clap!

It’s not like he has anything to lose, he can’t get more humiliated and even if there’s only a 1% chance of any success that’s better than just accepting the ruin of his families legacy.

[Coldstream]

Cheney:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/melissaholzberg/2021/04/26/liz-cheney-isnt-ruling-out-a-2024-presidential-bid/?sh=30374b406fa6

Might be a good way for her to avoid a career ending primary loss in 2022, forego re-election and go for a long shot Prez bid.

[Coldstream]

GOP Megadonors are lining up behind Tim Scott

Republican Sen. Tim Scott boarded a plane to Hawaii earlier this year to meet with one of the richest people in the world: Tech titan Larry Ellison.

Ellison’s remote Lanai Island home was well out of the South Carolina senator’s way. But for Scott, who like the 76-year-old Ellison is an outspoken advocate for school choice, cultivating the mogul has paid dividends — and could even help propel a 2024 presidential bid. Since last October, Ellison has contributed $10 million to an outside group aligned with the senator — a huge sum even in the super PAC era and the business owner’s biggest known contribution in three decades as a political donor.


Scott’s behind-the-scenes courtship of Ellison illustrates how the senator has quietly become a powerhouse fundraiser and a major force within the Republican Party. Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, has seen his profile rise since delivering the party’s response to President Joe Biden’s joint address to Congress in April and is developing a vast network of small- and large-dollar donors that spans his party’s ideological spectrum, helping him far outraise Senate colleagues this year.


The pro-Scott super PAC, Opportunity Matters Fund, has drawn support from conservative donors like Richard Gaby, who has bankrolled the likes of former President Donald Trump and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Scott has also received backing from the party’s mainstream givers, like New York hedge fund manager Dan Loeb, a financier of gay rights initiatives who is slated to host a fundraiser bolstering Scott later this year.

Whilst Trump seems likely to run - and win the nomination - I can’t quite see the GOP Financial elite just meekly accepting the renomination of a man who is almost certain to lose again to the ‘socialists’. So Scott could be an effective candidate for them to rally behind in the primary.

[Coldstream]

Per Maggie Haberman of Failing New York Times:

https://twitter.com/JohnBerman/status/1455124345525788674

I feel like people such as Pence/Pompeo/Hogan who’ve nothing else to run for and/or are termed out are likely to run. Whilst people who’ve got something else to run for and could plausibly be in office till 2026/2028 will wait.

[Coldstream]

Cotton huddles with donors to talk about his 2024 presidential campaign plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/14/cotton-big-donors-2024-presidential-race-00039476

Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton huddled with two dozen of his top donors Tuesday morning to describe his planning for a potential 2024 White House campaign, telling them a comeback bid by former President Donald Trump wouldn’t deter him from running.

During the meeting at the Hay-Adams hotel in Washington, which was described by two attendees, Cotton said he was prepared to run and detailed the work he’s done to develop an infrastructure for a national campaign. He emphasized that he wouldn’t defer to any other would-be candidates — including Trump — and said he planned to make a final decision on whether to run after this year’s midterm election.

To be fair, Cotton would have to say that he wouldn’t be deterred to donors or else they’d never give to him whenever he does run - this doesn’t actually mean he’s likely to run in 2024.

[Coldstream]

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1623420894562381827?s=20

There more candidates jump in, the more likely is a Trump nomination. At this point, I don't even think DeSantis can dethrone him 1 on 1.

I think you’ll see something similar to the 2020 Democrat primaries with Sanders as Trump in that situation. I think as much as the likes of Pence, Haley, DeSantis hate each other, they hate Trump more and do want him gone.

[Coldstream]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1625117626820165633
Breaking: Tim Scott announces he's running for vice president

Interesting, I thought he previously ruled out a run. But yup, he's running to be VP.

Everyone who isn't Trump is running to be VP.

Except DeSantis, I think he’s running for real. DeSantis is polling well enough to potentially be the nominee, and Trump won’t pick him for VP. In fact, since Trump and DeSantis are both Florida residents, Trump can’t pick DeSantis for VP without forfeiting Florida’s electoral votes per the Constitution. He can’t win without Florida, so unless Trump becomes a New York resident again, DeSantis is a no go (not that it would happen at this point, anyways. Trump seems to strongly dislike DeSantis now).

I never understood this. Why can't two people on the same ticket be registered in the same state? What's the logic here?

Afaik it's a relic of the time when the EC elected president and VP on the same ballot to prevent the electors of a state from just voting for two of their own for president. They had to give an alternative preference to someone not from their state. The procedure has been changed, but the provision sort of remained. It's one of these cases where no one actually knows what is legal and what is not because we never actually had to find out. It has always been more efficient for the parties to just find a workaround.

Given how easy it is to find a workaround (a la Cheney 2000), it does seem like it’d be worth reforming the law on this. There’s no real reason to block someone having a VP from their own state.

[Coldstream]

AP Article from February 24, about a trio of Texans's moves (or lack thereof) towards 2024.

It’s early yet, but next year’s presidential race may feature something the political world hasn’t seen in the last 50 years: no Texans.

The Texas-size hole in the field will be on stark display Friday at a closed Republican donor event outside the state capital, Austin, featuring the likes of former Vice President Mike Pence, who is expected to mount a campaign, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who announced her bid last week.

Some Texans could still run. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott won’t decide until after Memorial Day. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who ran in 2016, says he’s focused for now on reelection next year. Will Hurd, a onetime CIA agent and former Republican congressman from San Antonio, is seriously considering a bid and may bring on staff, aides say.

I feel like Hurd would only run so that he can have his moment on stage attacking Trump and then get more gigs. I do wonder if the RNC will allow people like that on the debate stage, when several candidates will just try and attack Trump to bring him down whilst knowing they can’t win.

[Coldstream]

I still think Chris Christie might give it a go. On the other hand, he seems pretty set on denying Trump the nomination again, so he might sit it out if the field is too crowded.

I think he’s more likely to run and drop out early, as he basically said he wants to be in a debate with Trump to try and kamikaze him like he did to Rubio.

[Coldstream]

I still think Chris Christie might give it a go. On the other hand, he seems pretty set on denying Trump the nomination again, so he might sit it out if the field is too crowded.

I think he’s more likely to run and drop out early, as he basically said he wants to be in a debate with Trump to try and kamikaze him like he did to Rubio.

Despite his skill at BSing, Donald, especially post 2017 Donald, feels like someone who could either collapse or explode under a verbal assault that doesn't care about future goodwill or playing nice. I would like to see what Christie could do.

100% agree, and Christie realistically is the only one vicious enough to land a blow.

[Coldstream]

Where does Hurd get the money from to run?

[Coldstream]

Increasingly clear that Haley will be the default anti-Trump candidate in the actual primaries next year. Not that she has a real chance of taking him down, but I think she finishes second place over Rob and Vivek, which means winning Utah and maybe Vermont or something.

Be interesting to see if coming second, winning some states, despite no expectations would be enough to set her up for 2028 (assuming there still are elections then).