2023 Philadelphia mayoral election megathread

[wbrocks67]

I was driving through North Wales (about 25 miles north of Philadelphia) the other day and saw a David Oh for Mayor sign. I haven't even seen one in Philadelphia proper.

They're everywhere in Chinatown.

The Asian gop swing continues

There could be a slight one this year but not for the reasons you think - it's more local, as Oh is more against the Sixers arena close to Chinatown, but Parker is for. But that assumes Chinatown votes like a monolith, which it doesn't.

[wbrocks67]

From what I can gleam, turnout looks okay in Philly as of right now.

In 2021, ~72k VBMs were cast
In 2022, ~127k VBMs were cast

Right now, we're at 105.5k requested and 35.5k returned, so seems likely we'll at least pass the 2021 total by the end.

[wbrocks67]

I've seen a few in Center City, but literally only one spot where they clearly just threw some up since its near the highway.

I will say, the dynamics are interesting, because IMO, both candidates are near invisible. Maybe it's just because this is a coronation for Parker basically, but you basically hear nothing about either of them, which is technically worse for Oh, bc it means he's definitely not doing anything that will get him out of the usual 15-20% that GOP gets, but frankly Parker has been kind of lazy imo. I get that she knows she's going to win regardless, but it feels like shes doing the literal bare minimum in this race, which is also frustrating because now I wonder if turnout will even be anything special, which will have affects for the SC race as well.

I don't think any election should be taken for granted. Her not campaigning could very well lower turnout and cost Democrats the Supreme Court.

Totally dumb of her to run a skeleton campaign.

Yeah, I really hope I'm wrong and maybe I've missed stuff and this is just vibes, but like, there's no signs anywhere (except for the big sign on Spring Garden Street from the SEIU who has endorsed her) and she seems to do just sparing appearances/campaign stops. There doesn't seem to be a big presence at all, like she's truly grinding this out day in and day out. Which sucks, because you would think there's an opportunity to have high turnout because she will be the first black woman mayor in our city's history - but there doesn't feel like there's any energy. Hoping I'm wrong though.

This is a disease that most establishment Democrats seem to have. I suspect it's that they think if a voter has to be persuaded, then they're such a bad person that they're not worth wasting energy on in the first place. I had really hoped that we'd left a lot of this behind after 2021, but it seems like there are a lot of holdouts. If the Democrats lose the Supreme Court, a lot of the blame could probably be placed here.

I find it very concerning Parker is taking this for granted and not making every effort to get the highest turnout possible.

The only question mark could be TV - I don't watch network/cable TV so it's possible she's spending there.

I'm also kind of surprised there hasn't been more effort by Shapiro et. al too. A rally or something with Parker, Shapiro, etc. would be really cool. He doesn't really seem involved either. Even if he cut a TV ad would probably be really helpful (though he hasn't even cut one for McCaffery, so I guess that's not happening)

[wbrocks67]

To put in perspective how paltry it all is, the Inquirer reported in late September that this is how much each raised from the end of the primary (May) to September:

Parker - $875K
Oh - $100k

Not even $1m total between the two of them.

[wbrocks67]

From what I can gleam, turnout looks okay in Philly as of right now.

In 2021, ~72k VBMs were cast
In 2022, ~127k VBMs were cast

Right now, we're at 105.5k requested and 35.5k returned, so seems likely we'll at least pass the 2021 total by the end.

Democrats are probably favored then. I trust midwestern state Democratic parties, it's the local machines that are dropping the ball.

Yeah, Dems will likely also be helped out with the Allegheny County election, as has been stated. That and the Philly mayoral happening at the same time along with the post-Roe in the suburbs is making me feel much better about Dems than I was in 2021.

[wbrocks67]

With todays update:

2021: 103,223 requested / 74,139 returned -- 71.8% return rate
2022: 161,724 requested / 129,363 returned -- 80.0% return rate
2023: 106,346 requested / 39,054 returned -- 36.7% return rate (so far)

[wbrocks67]

With todays update:

2021: 103,223 requested / 74,139 returned -- 71.8% return rate
2022: 161,724 requested / 129,363 returned -- 80.0% return rate
2023: 106,346 requested / 39,054 returned -- 36.7% return rate (so far)

Those aren't great numbers at all for Philadelphia. Parker is making a big mistake not campaigning. It would help the judicial candidates but she doesn't seem to be thinking about that.

I mean, they're not terrible, but not amazing either. You can still request a mail in ballot until Monday, so I assume by the end of it, we'll be closer to maybe ~110k requested. Which is meh, considering it's good that it's above 2021, but the fact that it's only barely above 2021, yeah not terrific either. It's also possible that as we get more and more out of COVID, that people are reverting to voting on election day versus mail, but it's definitely not a given.

[wbrocks67]

2021: 103,223 requested / 74,139 returned -- 71.8% return rate
2023: 107,637 requested / 45,218 returned -- 42.0% return rate (so far)

Tomorrow is the last day to request a mail ballot.

[wbrocks67]

Final count is in for requests, there was about 6,400 more this year than 2021 which is good. I'm pretty confident we should be able to surpass that 71.8% return rate this year, too.

2021: 103,223 requested / 74,139 returned — 71.8% return rate
2023: 109,669 requested / 60,683 returned — 55.3% return rate (so far)

[wbrocks67]

2021: 103,223 requested / 74,139 returned — 71.8% return rate
2023: 109,678 requested / 63,983 returned — 58.3% return rate

Dem return rate (59.2%) now outrunning Reps (58.6%) - was the opposite for a while

[wbrocks67]

Mid-Sept to Early Nov fundraising:
Parker - $497K
Oh - $62K

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/philadelphia/philadelphia-mayoral-election-2023-cherelle-parker-david-oh-20231105.html

[wbrocks67]

2021: 103,223 requested / 74,139 returned — 71.8% return rate
2023: 109,701 requested / 72,136 returned — 65.8% return rate (so far)

Big update this morning in Philly, we're now almost topping the raw amount returned in 2021, and we still have tomorrow morning's update and the ED drop-offs, so we should definitely be able to blow past that 71.8% return rate from 2021.

Democrats finally getting their ballots in, their return rate (66.8%) now continues to grow over Republicans (64.6%)

[wbrocks67]

75,670 VBM returned as of this morning in Philly, so we've topped 2021's final raw vote total! Not to mention, we still have all the dropoffs today, which could be a pretty large number, so we should ultimately see a good edge over 2021s total.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, the city council race was the final nail in the coffin.

Parker will likely end up with ~76% when all VBM are done counting, which is respectable, but still below typical D. I attribute almost of that to just her lack of a campaign.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout will pass 300K though, which isn't anything spectacular, but is still higher than 2015, 2019, and 2021.