2023 Philadelphia mayoral election megathread

[wbrocks67]

First nonpartisan poll from SurveyUSA!

With leaners:

Rhynhart 19%
Parker 17%
Gym 16%
Domb 15%
Jeff Brown 12%
DeLeon/Amen Brown/Bloom 2% each

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=25ef4518-2905-426f-8cd0-ce19aa81acb0

[wbrocks67]

Oh and of note, they did a simulated RCV, and Rhynhart won in the end against Parker, 55-45%.

So, one hand, would seem to mean Rhynhart likely has the most upside. But undecideds are truly undecided right now. The "leaners" section of undecided voters is quite big - like n=200, and the candidates basically split the undecided voters right now, with all 5 getting like 3-5% of the vote. No one is breaking out still for them.

[wbrocks67]

First nonpartisan poll from SurveyUSA!

With leaners:

Rhynhart 19%
Parker 17%
Gym 16%
Domb 15%
Jeff Brown 12%
DeLeon/Amen Brown/Bloom 2% each

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=25ef4518-2905-426f-8cd0-ce19aa81acb0

In the full results, 20%(!) are still undecided. With these margins, it is quite literally anyone's race to win.

Yep, and it also depends on turnout too. Parker leads with black and hispanic voters, so if they have a bit of a turnout surge, she could move ahead. Likewise, if their turnout falls off a cliff, she's likely cooked, since she does poorly with White voters.

Meanwhile, Rhynhart and Gym splitting the liberal vote expectedly. Though, I'm shocked to see Rhynhart leading with young voters. It's not by much, but I expected Gym to decently be ahead with that group.

[wbrocks67]

Can't wait for this primary to be over. Not only do many people have Helen Gym-derangement syndrome, but on the other end, now Gym supporters are constantly attacking other people, especially Parker and Rhynhart supporters. It's just a total mess.

[wbrocks67]

Can't wait for this primary to be over. Not only do many people have Helen Gym-derangement syndrome, but on the other end, now Gym supporters are constantly attacking other people, especially Parker and Rhynhart supporters. It's just a total mess.

Yeah thats a turnoff for me. If I could vote in this election it would be a tossup between Parker and Rhynhart leaning towards Parker.

It's really hard to tell who has the momentum. Parker just secured some more endorsements, but the poll kinda shocked me that even the stuff she had before was only getting her to 16-17%. Gym just locked up AOC/Bernie but again, idk how much of a ceiling she really has. Rhynhart was barely in the lead, but I also don't know how much inroad she's making with the non-white liberal vote.

[wbrocks67]

McPhillips is Gym's campaign manager and D4P was Fetterman's internal pollster, so I'm assuming this is a Gym internal

https://twitter.com/BrendanMcP/status/1654463837398073346

[wbrocks67]

I *highly* doubt that Gym and Rhynhart are both going to be ahead of Parker. Ofc, things can shift quickly and I may be proven wrong but neither has caught on much in the Black community if endorsements and the one public poll we have are to be believed. Also if a Gym internal doesn't show her with a real lead she's probably not leading...

Yeah, given that it's a Gym internal I would not be surprised if it was actually something like Rhynart 21%, Parker 19%, Gym 17%, etc. Rhynhart has led in every recent poll now.

[wbrocks67]

Rhynhart led the most recent fundraising report

Rhynhart $699K
Parker $519K
Brown $481K
Gym $379K
Domb $293K

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/mayors-race-campaign-finance-most-expensive-election-domb-rhynhart-20230506.html

[wbrocks67]

Turnout looks like it may actually be pretty good - there's more requested mail ballots than the 2022 primary in Philly

[wbrocks67]

Emerson out with new poll:

Without leaners:
Gym 21%
Parker 18%
Rhynhart 18%
Domb 14%
Brown 10%

With leaners:
Gym 23%
Parker 21%
Rhynhart 20%
Domb 17%

Fav:
Rhynhart 60/20 (+40)
Parker 51/31 (+20)
Domb 47/36 (+11)
Gym 45/36 (+9)
Brown 35/39 (-4)

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/philadelphia-2023-mayoral-race-in-dead-heat-gym-parker-rhynhart-domb-scramble-in-crowded-field/

Confirms that Brown is very hated, unsurprisingly. Also that Gym has a clear ceiling, and Rhynhart is likely a lot of peoples second choice.

[wbrocks67]

Still have no idea what will happen tomorrow. Rhynhart's fantastic fav #s could help her win the last undecideds, but Gym and Parker are also just as in this.

[wbrocks67]

Emerson out with new poll:

Without leaners:
Gym 21%
Parker 18%
Rhynhart 18%
Domb 14%
Brown 10%

With leaners:
Gym 23%
Parker 21%
Rhynhart 20%
Domb 17%

Fav:
Rhynhart 60/20 (+40)
Parker 51/31 (+20)
Domb 47/36 (+11)
Gym 45/36 (+9)
Brown 35/39 (-4)

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/philadelphia-2023-mayoral-race-in-dead-heat-gym-parker-rhynhart-domb-scramble-in-crowded-field/

Confirms that Brown is very hated, unsurprisingly. Also that Gym has a clear ceiling, and Rhynhart is likely a lot of peoples second choice.

Interesting considering I feel like I see more Domb ads than any other candidate by far!

Makes sense since it seems he's spending the most. The thing with Domb is that he still can't seem to get out of 4th place despite dumping like $10M of his own money into this thing

[wbrocks67]

Rooting for Gym but I think that Rhynhart will have the edge here due to turnout differential. Her core voter demographics are the likeliest to vote in a (potentially) low turnout election.

Parker’s labor and machine support should give her good GOTV efforts as well.

Could be very wrong of course as haven’t lived in Philly for a while.

Yeah it's hard, you could very plausibly make a very good case for all 3 of them.

Rhynhart I think will need some Domb voters to also give up on him and go to her, sensing he doesn't have a chance really. That could be a big factor as well.

[wbrocks67]

I also kind of resent the fact that the national media is making this a thing where Gym is the only progressive in this race. Yeah, I get that Bernie and AOC lining up behind her kind of gives her that mantle, but it's not as cut and dry as they're making it. Rhynhart is also extremely progressive as well. (IMO, more of a "pragmatic progressive" which doesn't get the splashy headlines)

[wbrocks67]

50K ballots in, looks like these would likely be a majority of the VBM (63K as of yesterday)

Map is basically a scattering across the entire city

Rhynhart 27.3%
Parker 27.1%
Domb 16.4%
Gym 15.8%
Brown 11.4%

[wbrocks67]

Is it just me or should Gym have done way better with the vbm?

I thought so too. Holding out because maybe there's something out that would bring her up, but the map is really all over the place from every area, so kind of surprising she didn't do better. We'll see though

[wbrocks67]

If Rhynhart wins my ward or wins at all... ugh

Why? Rhynhart objectively is like the least divisive of all of them.

[wbrocks67]

Familiar patterns - Domb cleaning up in Northeast, Rhynhart doing well in Center City, and Parker doing well in West Philly

[wbrocks67]

Familiar patterns - Domb cleaning up in Northeast, Rhynhart doing well in Center City, and Parker doing well in West Philly

Parker seems favored now right? She is cleaning up in the Black parts of the city.

Depends on what turnout is ultimately like, but yeah, it definitely looks good for her right now. Caveat that not even 1/3 of the vote is in, but really depends on turnout differentials in the black wards vs. the whiter, wealthier wards. Seems like a lot of the former just reported, so have to wait and see.

[wbrocks67]

Well and it's all about coalitions. Parker also won because she got a huge share of the black vote, while Domb got the whiter northeast moderate/conservative vote, and Rhynhart and Gym basically split the white/progressive/young vote.

Parker did horrendously with white voters it looks like, but black voters were unanimously with her, which helped her break out.

[wbrocks67]

Well and it's all about coalitions. Parker also won because she got a huge share of the black vote, while Domb got the whiter northeast moderate/conservative vote, and Rhynhart and Gym basically split the white/progressive/young vote.

Parker did horrendously with white voters it looks like, but black voters were unanimously with her, which helped her break out.

I thought it was pretty funny that a majority of wealthy voters split between Gym and Rhynhart.

Not surprising

Yeah, I feel like this was basically expected. Parker was always going to appeal to minorities/poorer communities, Domb was always going to do well in the northeast with the more moderate/conservative voters, and Gym and Rhynhart were always going to split the white vote, with Gym getting the more progressive voters and Rhynhart getting the more mainstream dems.

[wbrocks67]

Who would’ve won the Democratic primary if runoffs were required in Philadelphia elections?

Parker still

I think Parker would've had a good chance but Rhynhart probably would've been a dark horse, given that I think she was a lot of people's 2nd choices (and given how great her fav score was in the Emerson poll)

[wbrocks67]

I've seen a few in Center City, but literally only one spot where they clearly just threw some up since its near the highway.

I will say, the dynamics are interesting, because IMO, both candidates are near invisible. Maybe it's just because this is a coronation for Parker basically, but you basically hear nothing about either of them, which is technically worse for Oh, bc it means he's definitely not doing anything that will get him out of the usual 15-20% that GOP gets, but frankly Parker has been kind of lazy imo. I get that she knows she's going to win regardless, but it feels like shes doing the literal bare minimum in this race, which is also frustrating because now I wonder if turnout will even be anything special, which will have affects for the SC race as well.

[wbrocks67]

I've seen a few in Center City, but literally only one spot where they clearly just threw some up since its near the highway.

I will say, the dynamics are interesting, because IMO, both candidates are near invisible. Maybe it's just because this is a coronation for Parker basically, but you basically hear nothing about either of them, which is technically worse for Oh, bc it means he's definitely not doing anything that will get him out of the usual 15-20% that GOP gets, but frankly Parker has been kind of lazy imo. I get that she knows she's going to win regardless, but it feels like shes doing the literal bare minimum in this race, which is also frustrating because now I wonder if turnout will even be anything special, which will have affects for the SC race as well.

I don't think any election should be taken for granted. Her not campaigning could very well lower turnout and cost Democrats the Supreme Court.

Totally dumb of her to run a skeleton campaign.

Yeah, I really hope I'm wrong and maybe I've missed stuff and this is just vibes, but like, there's no signs anywhere (except for the big sign on Spring Garden Street from the SEIU who has endorsed her) and she seems to do just sparing appearances/campaign stops. There doesn't seem to be a big presence at all, like she's truly grinding this out day in and day out. Which sucks, because you would think there's an opportunity to have high turnout because she will be the first black woman mayor in our city's history - but there doesn't feel like there's any energy. Hoping I'm wrong though.

[wbrocks67]

I've seen a few in Center City, but literally only one spot where they clearly just threw some up since its near the highway.

I will say, the dynamics are interesting, because IMO, both candidates are near invisible. Maybe it's just because this is a coronation for Parker basically, but you basically hear nothing about either of them, which is technically worse for Oh, bc it means he's definitely not doing anything that will get him out of the usual 15-20% that GOP gets, but frankly Parker has been kind of lazy imo. I get that she knows she's going to win regardless, but it feels like shes doing the literal bare minimum in this race, which is also frustrating because now I wonder if turnout will even be anything special, which will have affects for the SC race as well.

I don't think any election should be taken for granted. Her not campaigning could very well lower turnout and cost Democrats the Supreme Court.

Totally dumb of her to run a skeleton campaign.

Even though the Dems have had a long streak, there have been close elections. Have there been any polls? I haven't seen any.

Nope, literally none that I've seen lol. I guess pollsters figure why bother. That's the thing - like I said, as much as Parker seems to be taking this a bit for granted, Oh is just as invisible. He's broke and not really doing much either. There's not a lot of upset potential here at all.