2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (user search)
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  2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 43882 times)
UncleSam
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Posts: 2,514


« on: December 24, 2022, 03:36:38 PM »

Doug Mastriano liked a tweet from a fake right-wing polling account that supposedly has him up 0.4% against Bob Casey Jr. Could Mastriano run for PA-SEN in 2024?



I have to admit that their feed is pretty funny. Smiley
The poll is a joke right? Or is it a hack internal?
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2023, 02:32:44 PM »

LOL


Don’t think this is even close to ‘lol’ worthy. She’s a former incumbent who lost by 8 last year. Yes she is a solid underdog (probably starts out as Likely D) but she’s nowhere near DOA. The RGV is notoriously swingy and hard to predict, and in 2020 turned up for Rs. Not saying that will happen again or that Trump will suddenly carry the 34th, but this is still the best possible recruit Rs could get for this seat and puts it on the map, even if towards the edge.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,514


« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2024, 12:01:41 PM »


Lol
The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

Residency issues in WI, PA, NV, and MI

NV is so transient that carpetbagging doesn't carry much of an electoral penalty there. And at least McCormick, Hovde and Rogers all grew up in their states. It's not like any of them are Dr. Oz. Even Slotkin herself faced pretty much the same residency questions when she first ran for Congress.

If the bar is Dr. Oz who lost to (checks notes) John Fetterman of all people by 5% in a Biden midterm, then sure. They’ve cleared that absurdly low bar.
He literally said he was comparing candidate quality now to 2022, so yes the 2022 candidates are the bar…

That being said I don’t actually agree, I don’t see Rs having much of a chance in a bunch of states they theoretically should compete in (PA, WI, MI…). Ds have their own problems but have generally done a much sounder job at fielding candidates who can at least run even with the national partisan baseline, if not well beyond it.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,514


« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2024, 09:23:44 PM »


Idk Nevada is kinda like a reverse Florida. Always close for Rs, but there are just a few more Dems in the state and it’s trending towards Dems.

It would take a pretty significant polling gap for me to think of this as even a toss up tbh.
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