International COVID-19 Megathread

[Mike88]

Now, this is what you a call a mask with high protection:

https://twitter.com/odedonafrida/status/1259860215761166338

If the video doesn't play, click on the tweet.

[Mike88]

With Germany today, now all Official Q1 (Jan-Mar) GDP numbers released:
UK: -2.0%
Germany: -2.2%
Italy: -4.7%
Spain: -5.2%
France: -5.8%

UK damage will probably be a bit higher because UK was hit later by Virus. Still trend clear, existing social inequalities (north-south) in Europe will get even worse. Not good for EU, if it does not agree to further integration. Tecne Poll in Italy shows 49% want to leave EU, basically reversing Brexit pro-EU consolidation on the Continent.

Portuguese economy also falls: -2.4% annually, and -3.9% compared with 2019 Q4.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1261218054727401472

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Total cases: 28,810 (+227)
Active cases: 23,785 (-280)
Deaths: 1,203 (+13)
Recoveries: 3,822 (+494)
Patients in ICU: 115 (+3)
Patients hospitalized: 657 (-16)

More than 600,000 tests conducted since March 1st

The number of recovered is increasing a lot in the last few days, after the government said that the number of recovered patients was to low because patients treated at home weren't being counted and they are now as many doctors are being called to pass recoveries certificates for patients at home. The number is expected to continue to grow more and more in the next few weeks. The number of active cases has also, finally, started to decrease because of this.

The 2nd fase of the end of the lockdown will start next Monday. Restaurants, bars, schools and kindergardens will be allowed to open with some restrictions. Other businesses, like hairdressers, opened two weeks ago. Beaches will also open on June 6 with some rules:

- Traffic light warnings will say if the beach is full or not;
- An app will advise the beaches more less people;
- Walking routes will be defined in beaches;
- Social distancing of 1,5 meters between people and 3 meters between sun umbrellas;

In Madeira, beaches opened yesterday as ruled by the regional government. Madeira has the lowest number of cases in the whole country and zero deaths.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Total cases: 30,623 (+152)
Active cases: 11,758 (-9,706)
Deaths: 1,316 (+14)
Recoveries: 17,549 (+9,844)
Patients in ICU: 78 (-2)
Patients hospitalized: 536 (-14)

Almost than 700,000 tests conducted since March 1st

The Lisbon area is now focus of some concern as there seems to be a considerable increase of new infections in that area. The most serious situation is a factory in Azambuja, north of Lisbon, where 90 workers were infected.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Total cases: 31,007 (+219)
Active cases: 11,569 (-67)
Deaths: 1,342 (+12)
Recoveries: 18,096 (+274)
Patients in ICU: 71 (-1)
Patients hospitalized: 513 (-18)

More than 745,000 tests conducted since March 1st.

The Lisbon area continues to see a big growth in new cases, contrary to the rest of the country. Of the 219 new cases, today, 211 were from the Lisbon area. The Health authorities say that many infection hotspots have been identified, one of them in one of the poorest neighborhoods in the Lisbon area, the Jamaica neighborhood. Hospitals in the Lisbon are also seeing an increase of new hospitalizations, compared with the huge drop in the rest of the country.

[Mike88]

Portugal: The government could delay the opening of shopping malls in Lisbon as the number of cases in the capital region have increased dramatically in the last 4 days.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1266040431562952704

Reopening of shopping malls in Lisbon in risk. Region is a problem and can open more slowly

The country is doing well, but Lisbon is a problem. At the meeting of the political elite with specialists at Infarmed, the Prime Minister even said that he would reflect "seriously" before Friday's Council of Ministers on the possibility of postponing the reopening of shopping centers in the Lisbon and Vale do Tejo region, party leaders told the Observador. It's thus possible, although this did not happen in the first two phases of reopening, that in this last stage the Lisbon region reopens at a slower pace than the rest of the country, in an "asymmetric" reopening.

(...)

[Mike88]

The situation in Lisbon isn't improving as more cases are reported. 350 new cases were reported, as of today, with 323 in the Lisbon area alone.

The new cases of the virus in the Lisbon area seem to be concentrated in the poorest neighborhoods of the metropolitan area, some of them even illegal:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1266095974935642117

Housing: In Greater Lisbon there are more than 200 illegal neighborhoods

The media is reporting that the likelihood that they will be two separate re-openings for the country, one for Lisbon and another for the rest of the country, is very high right now. The PM will probably announce it later today.

[Mike88]

Lisbon will indeed have a different reopening than the rest of the country. After June 1, with the exception of Lisbon, shopping malls will reopen, agglomerations of 20 people will be allowed and restaurants could have full capacity, if there are barriers between tables.

All of the above will not happen in the Lisbon area until June 4, and all measures will be reevaluated on that day for that area of the country.

[Mike88]

Worldwide, the number of closed cases surpassed the number of active cases, the last time this happenned I believe was in early March:

Closed Cases: 3,065,783
Active Cases: 3,020,727

And the number of recoveries is very close to the number of active cases, and growing:

Recoveries: 2,697,311

[Mike88]

Worldwide, the number of recovered surpassed the total number of active cases today:

Total cases: 6,497,605
Active cases: 3,019,338
Recovered cases: 3,094,438
Deaths: 383,829

In Portugal, the Lisbon area continues to see a surge in cases, contrary to the rest of the country:

Overall numbers: (3 June)

Total cases: 33,261 (+366)
Active cases: 11,735 (+145)
Deaths: 1,447 (+11)
Recoveries: 20,079 (+210)
Patients in ICU: 56 (-2)
Patients hospitalized: 428 (-4)

847,171 tests conducted since March 1st

Growth by region: (3 June)

North: +15
Center: +12
Lisbon: +335
Alentejo: 0
Algarve: +4
Azores: +1
Madeira: -1

[Mike88]

Thread on how the Spanish Government artificially lowers it's death count through absurd reporting criteria.

Adding to that, there's an ongoing small diplomatic incident between Spain and Portugal, as Spain says they will open their borders on June 22, while Portugal will only open the borders on July 1st. The foreign minister says that Spain didn't inform Portugal and that only Portugal can make decisions about their own borders.

https://twitter.com/sapo/status/1268502967638011905

Government "surprised" by Spain's announcement about opening borders

[Mike88]

Thread on how the Spanish Government artificially lowers it's death count through absurd reporting criteria.

Adding to that, there's an ongoing small diplomatic incident between Spain and Portugal, as Spain says they will open their borders on June 22, while Portugal will only open the borders on July 1st. The foreign minister says that Spain didn't inform Portugal and that only Portugal can make decisions about their own borders.

Spain has retracted the decision to open borders on June 22. They will now open on July 1st.

[Mike88]

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare', WHO says

The spread of Covid-19 by someone who is not showing symptoms appears to be rare, Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization's technical lead for coronavirus response and head of the emerging diseases and zoonoses unit, said during a media briefing in Geneva on Monday.

"From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual," Van Kerkhove said on Monday.

"We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing. They're following asymptomatic cases, they're following contacts and they're not finding secondary transmission onward. It is very rare -- and much of that is not published in the literature," she said. "We are constantly looking at this data and we're trying to get more information from countries to truly answer this question. It still appears to be rare that an asymptomatic individual actually transmits onward."

(...)

I don't even know what to say about this... Quite an irresponsible statement from the WHO.

[Mike88]

They're distinguishing between asymptomatic (never shows symptoms) and pre-symptomatic (will later show symptoms). An important distinction.

Even so, it creats confusion and could hurt, even more, people' support for recommended behaviors, not to mention some leaders.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Total cases: 36,463 (+283)
Active cases: 12,513(+38)
Deaths: 1,512 (+7)
Recoveries: 22,438 (+238)
Patients in ICU: 77 (+4)
Patients hospitalized: 428 (-12)

Almost a 1,000,000 tests conducted since March 1st.

The media is reporting, in the last few days, that Portugal is diverging from the rest of Europe in terms of the reduction of cases. According to the media, in the last 15 days, Portugal was the 2nd country in the EU with the most new cases of Covid per million inhabitants, only behind Sweden, and the number of ICU patients and hospitalized patients also grew.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Total cases: 36,463 (+283)
Active cases: 12,513(+38)
Deaths: 1,512 (+7)
Recoveries: 22,438 (+238)
Patients in ICU: 77 (+4)
Patients hospitalized: 428 (-12)

Almost a 1,000,000 tests conducted since March 1st.

The media is reporting, in the last few days, that Portugal is diverging from the rest of Europe in terms of the reduction of cases. According to the media, in the last 15 days, Portugal was the 2nd country in the EU with the most new cases of Covid per million inhabitants, only behind Sweden, and the number of ICU patients and hospitalized patients also grew.

I already wondered why Austria announced it will open borders/travel to most European countries without any restrictions starting June 16th - but Portugal was not among them.

That was also reported in Portugal and created discomfort in the government and in us all a bit, but, I don't think anyone could blame them now. The situation in Lisbon isn't good and the whole story of the "Portuguese miracle" went down the drain. In 10 days, or so, the rhetoric changed in Portugal.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Government furious after some EU countries banned the entry of Portuguese citizens now threatens to answer in the same way:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1273724754818719754

Government threatens to retaliate against countries that prevent entry of Portuguese citizens

Countries like Denmark and Austria prevent the Portuguese from entering their territory because of the pandemic. The Government criticizes this position and admits reciprocity in that decision.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed this Thursday that the decision of some member states of the European Union to prohibit the entry of Portuguese was taken "contrary to the decisions taken by the European Union", arguing that Portugal has more cases for having carried out " much more tests than most European countries ”. The Government's threat is to apply the “principle of reciprocity”, that is, to prohibit the citizens of these countries from entering national territory.

This reaction comes after more EU countries are forbidding the entry of Portuguese citizens:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1273678302956474368

Covid-19: Portuguese banned from entering or restricted entry in ten European countries

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1275103212245266432

Portugal plans to tighten restrictions in some municipalities around Lisbon as the government tries to contain new clusters of the coronavirus outbreak in the city’s outskirts.

Stricter rules will come into force at midnight, Prime Minister Antonio Costa said on Monday after meeting the mayors of Loures, Odivelas, Sintra and Amadora. “There will also be a greater police presence in these municipalities,” he said.

Gatherings will now be limited to 10 people, down from 20 previously, and the government will approve rules on fines for individuals taking part in group gatherings. No drinking in public places will be allowed and stores in these areas will need to close by 8 p.m., Costa said.

Portugal reported 259 new coronavirus cases on Monday, and now has 12,310 active cases, Secretary of State for Health Antonio Lacerda Sales said at a press conference in Lisbon. Daily new cases have ranged between 192 and 421 in June, and the additional infections have mostly been recorded in the greater Lisbon region where authorities have increased testing after new clusters were identified.

[Mike88]

Portugal update: (24 June)

Total cases: 40,104 (+367)
Active cases: 12,478 (+110)
Deaths: 1,543 (+3)
Recoveries: 26,083 (+254)
Patients in ICU: 73 (+1)
Patients hospitalized: 429 (-12)

Total cases by region: (change from yesterday)

17,527 Lisbon and Tagus Valley (+302)
17,339 North (+10)
  4,042 Center (+28)
     552 Algarve (+16)
     406 Alentejo (+9)
     146 Azores (+2)
       92 Madeira (nc)

1,102,066 tests conducted since March 1st.

Politicians also met for a meeting with specialists, and things didn't go that well:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1275847586818252804

Meeting at Infarmed. Experts contradict Costa's speech that tests explain everything

The prime minister sought to confirm that the increase in cases in Lisbon and the Tagus Valley is due to an increase in tests. Epidemiologists have withdrawn this thesis, safeguarded that it does not explain the whole reality and said that the problem is real. Second wave contagion hypothesis exists.

António Costa appeared at the fortnightly meeting of Infarmed, which brings together specialists, distinguished figures of State and party leaders, willing to prove the thesis that the increase in cases in the region of Lisbon and the Tagus Valley was due to the increase in testing capacity, an an argument that the Government, in several voices, has used to criticize the reservations raised by other European countries. But the epidemiologists present raised reservations about this argument: the increase in tests does not justify all cases. The problem is real, the average number of hospitalized patients has increased, the number of people in intensive care as well and the region may be starting a second wave of contagions.

At the end of the meeting, what was noticed is that a new political moment began: the pandemic and the data itself became a cause for partisan struggle: PSD, CDS, Bloco and PAN criticized in the end, with a different speech from the President of the Republic regarding the content of the meeting. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa kept the line he drew, always at the side of the Government: at the top of power there can be no public disagreement about the pandemic.

“The experts ended up denying the prime minister. In an elegant way, but they did it ”, tells the Expresso source who was present at the meeting. “The environment was not the best after the interventions by Baltazar Nunes [National School of Public Health] and Rita Sá Machado [Directorate-General for Health]”, notes another source. “He tried to put the hypothesis in an almost affirmative way. But it ended up upset, ”says another participant.

(...)

There was another issue taken up by epidemiologists: there is, in fact, a decrease in the number of tests carried out in the last 15 days, which experts attributed to the holiday period. A fact that reinforces the news advanced Tuesday by Jornal de Negócios: according to official data released by health authorities the average number of diagnostic tests for covid-19 performed daily has fallen 24% since the beginning of the reopening of the economy, on May 4. More: Portugal is currently doing an average of 1 test per 1,000 inhabitants, but on 18 May it was doing 1.5 tests per 1,000 inhabitants.

The Prime Minister did not hide any disgust with the lack of available data and even criticized information on testing, namely the fact that the Ricardo Jorge Institute only compiles data from the NHS and not from private laboratories - which many companies mainly construction companies had appealed.

(...)

[Mike88]

19 parishes in the Lisbon area, with a total of 700,000 inhabitants, will go back into confinement to stop the spread of the virus in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1276261391339528193

LISBON (Reuters) - People in several parts of Greater Lisbon will have to go back to staying at home from next week as Portuguese authorities deal with a worrying wave of coronavirus on the city’s outskirts, the government announced on Thursday.

Those living in the affected areas of the capital - a total of 19 civil parishes that do not include downtown Lisbon - will be allowed to leave home only to buy essential goods such as food or medication, and to travel to and from work.

“The only effective way to control the pandemic is to stay home whenever possible, keep physical distance at all times and always maintain protection and hygiene standards,” Prime Minister Antonio Costa told a news conference.

The measure will be in place from July 1 until July 14 and it will then be reviewed, according to a government document.

In the designated 19 areas, there will be a limit of five people for gatherings, compared to 10 in Greater Lisbon as a whole and 20 for the rest of the nation.

Thursday’s announcement came after the government introduced restrictions on Tuesday that included an order for most commercial spaces in Greater Lisbon, excluding restaurants, to shut at 8 p.m. each day.

(...)

[Mike88]

Total cases, worldwide, surpassed the 10 million mark today.

The US, Brazil, Russia and India now gather more than 50% of all cases worldwide.

On the good side, more than 54% of all cases are recovered, 5,450,817, and the fatality rate is drooping and is now bellow 5% and continuing a downturn trend.

[Mike88]

UK's choice of excluding Portugal from the safe tourist air bridges is creating furious reactions from the government. Costa tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/antoniocostapm/status/1279118619511791622

The foreign minister has also accused the UK of an "absurd" and "unjust" decision with absolutely no rationality citting the examples of Madeira and Azores, which have basically no cases.

[Mike88]

Madeira and the Azores are being exempted from the FCO's "do not travel except essential list", but not the quarantine list.

Also, he's using the total cases, not the current level. Portugal's current case rate is close to 50 per 100,000 whereas as the UK's is around 30.

https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/#1_introduction

Yes, Madeira and Azores are being exempted, but the minister is criticizing the quarantine, I believe. Nonetheless, this is what the government is saying, but you are right about the numbers. The issue is that expectations were so high around here a few weeks ago and Costa and his government seem to have lost control of the situation.

[Mike88]

Also there are riots happening in Serbia due to the response of the government towards the pandemic

In the news here I heard they are  protesting also against corruption, the decreasing quality of democracy and some even chanted "Kosovo is part of Serbia".

[Mike88]

The slow burn of cases continues in Portugal.

17 July update:

Active cases: 13,605 (-5)
Total cases: 48,077 (+312)
Recoveries: 32,790 (+314)
Deaths: 1,682 (+3)
Hospitalizations: 447 (-29)
ICU cases: 67 (-5)

1,413,519 tests conducted so far.