Abortion rights amendment will be on FL ballot this year

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, looks like it was 4/3, with both of the non-DeSantis appointees in the 4.  The initiative to legalize recreational marijuana was approved 5/2 and it appears they also ruled 6/1 that under existing law, there is no right to abortion in the Florida constitution, which means the 6 week ban takes effect until/unless it is repealed by the amendment vote.

[Skill and Chance]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida.  

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

[Skill and Chance]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes, and it won't given how radical it is. Florida would become the Southeast Hub for Abortions with this crap.

Would they be reasonable enough to come back with a 12 or 15 week referendum in 2026?  If so, that would likely get 60%. 

[Skill and Chance]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida.  

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

Florida Republicans are not as conservative on this issue as you think they are.

IDK, they need a result left of Michigan, though

[Skill and Chance]

It needs 60% to pass though right?

Yes.  Thus far, the pro-choice position has been held under 60% in every 2020 or 2016 Trump-won state that had a referendum since Dobbs.  Kansas came closest at 59.1%, but pro-choice had the relative advantage of being a no vote on that referendum.  A no vote will be the pro-life position in Florida. 

Thus far, pro-choice has exceeded 60% in only Vermont (77%) and California (67%).  It was between 56-57% in both Ohio and Michigan as the yes vote.  Given the large Hispanic and relatively large white Evangelical population in Florida, I don't think it's reasonable they vote <7% right of California on this!

Florida Republicans are not as conservative on this issue as you think they are.

Skill & Chance makes a reasonable Point here. Florida isn't VT or CA. If they can't even get 60 % in Kansas there is no reason to believe they will hit 60 % in FL.

Florida isn't Kansas.

Kansas is the upside argument for pro-choice on this referendum, their best performance in the nation relative to Biden 2020 #'s.  The downside argument would actually be California, oddly enough.  It's the only other heavily Hispanic state to have one of these so far, and it was by far the weakest overperformance of Biden- 63% Biden vs. 67% pro-choice (interestingly enough this was mainly because it only ran approximately even with Biden in L.A. County).  I would say that North Florida alone means white people in Florida are obviously less pro-choice than white people in California?

[Skill and Chance]

The biggest issue for this passing is the panhandle. If you look at the Bill Nelson 2012 map, I expect those counties to vote for it. But the panhandle is basically Alabama in an otherwise moderate state.

The closest comparison we have for rural ancestral Dems is Kentucky.  Pro-choice generally outran Trump by 10%+ in those counties.  Other than Jefferson and maybe Madison, none of the North Florida rural counties are remotely close anymore, though.  Maybe it wins Escambia?  Actually, that might be a statewide win condition for it? 

[Skill and Chance]

MCIMaps went fairly deep into these issues (or as deep as you can go with limited advance warning) in his newsletter today. He has his own biases but the Tallahassee operative does cover some of the questions people are posing here.

Hmmm.. so an amendment to put an abortion ban in the state constitution got 45% in 2012.  That seems like a good starting point.  How net pro-choice do we believe people who have registered to vote in FL since 2012 are?  And how big do we think the No advantage is on referendum like this?

[Skill and Chance]

MCIMaps went fairly deep into these issues (or as deep as you can go with limited advance warning) in his newsletter today. He has his own biases but the Tallahassee operative does cover some of the questions people are posing here.

Hmmm.. so an amendment to put an abortion ban in the state constitution got 45% in 2012.  That seems like a good starting point.  How net pro-choice do we believe people who have registered to vote in FL since 2012 are?  And how big do we think the No advantage is on referendum like this?

FYI, the referendum was banning state funding for abortion and revising language around the right to privacy in the state constitution pertaining to abortion; it wasn't a ban. It's pretty easy to imagine people who don't want state funding for abortion and who aren't that comfortable with it, but who don't want the current legal status in FL.

You're right, I should have clarified that.  However, it did include there is no right to abortion in the state constitution language like the referendum in Kentucky in 2022 where pro-life was yes.  And of course any policy changes beyond maybe the government funding would have been preempted by Roe/Casey back then.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1776980775105159377

Well, they lost.

I’m pro choice but trying to skew elections with ballot initiatives because your party itself is wholly unelectable is scummy af

Interesting view.  I'm pro-life and pro-referendum.  I think it's really not a good look to make up a reason to keep something off the ballot on a technicality.  I also suspect this is the abortion amendment that will finally be defeated.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1778401672831647958

IMO the most notable thing here is that only 57% believe a 6 week abortion limit is "too strict" and only 43% believe a 15 week abortion limit is "too strict."  The amendment with a roughly 24 week viability limit needs 60% to pass and they can't even find 60% opposition to a 6 week limit!

[Skill and Chance]

If this fails, won't they just come back in 2026 with a 12 or 15 week referendum?  Or would the activists consider that an unacceptable compromise?