Australia 2022 Election

[Epaminondas]

The tightest races this election look like the reverse of 2019:
2019: Labour won 13 of 18 races within 3%
2022: Liberals win ~7 of 9 races within 3% (Moore, Menzies, Casey, Bass, Sturt, Deakin, Gilmore...)

One could have expected the winning party to dominate the close calls.

[Epaminondas]

Yes the national electoral calculus in the last 15 years has turned against the ALP. in 2007, Kevin Rudd's ALP got 43.4 of the primary vote. This election it was 32.8%

Australia's voting system is beautiful in that it allows to see further than these FPTP considerations.
Since 2007, 12 percent of the population has found it prefers Green first, then Labour second, but never Liberal. Green+ALP FP has been steady at 44% for 4 elections.

Meanwhile, where's the Coalition's hidden vein of voters after losing nearly 10% of FP since 2013? Katter's Party?

[Epaminondas]

Also stunning that with over 48% of TPP, Liberals are on track to win only 58 seats.

In raw seats, that's the lowest they have won since 1983.
In proportion (76% of a majority) it's the lowest since Robert Menzies took over the party in 1946.

Will a future path to power require them to win back all the marginals, or are there deeper trends at work favouring them?

[Epaminondas]

Has anyone a link to the closest marginals in order of closeness? Gilmore tops out this time at 0.2%.