Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?

[bagelman]

Bump

Well, with almost all the votes counted, Mississippi really stands out compared to other states:

>Contrary to the consensus in this poll, it has both swung AND trended right for two consecutive cycles now. In 2012, it voted R by 11 points (15 points to the right of the nation), in 2016, it voted R by 18 points (20 points to the right of the nation) and now in 2020, it appears to have voted R by around 20 points (~25 points to the right of the nation).

>Turnout has also decreased for two consecutive cycles now (especially surprising in 2020 when almost every state saw massive turnout increases). 2020 might have 100k (~8%) less votes cast than 2012 even though the population stayed more or less the same.

What can explain these?

There are still votes left to be counted in Mississipi...Biden will likely reduce the margin once after total count is finished

Will it be by enough to reduce the R trend or eliminate the R swing?