🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[oldtimer]

I’m cheering for Leventis to get back in to Parliament.

No one is cheering for him in Greece.

Leventis was an odd political crusader (a crusade to make himself elected) who was known only because he had his own TV station with his own TV show, where he simply commented on politics and current affairs and talked to voters on the phone in an verbally abusing style.

At some point some disaffected voters said why not, and voted for him only to regret it.

Once in parliament he did nothing but empty vague rhetoric while playing boring political games.

His MP's where a general embarrassment who sold themselves to other parties immediately only to disappear from politics because no one votes for such blatant sell outs.

This makes it all the more hilarious that he once got elected.

If you are 30 years on TV and 30 years on the ballot ranting about politics you might get elected, but you have to rant a lot and loudly:

[oldtimer]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_for_the_Reconstruction_of_the_Communist_Party_of_Greece

Remember these guys? Bet they feel vindicated these days.

They have the reputation in Greece of being a CIA front, most small leftist parties in greece probably have more Secret Agents as members than actual voters.

Only the Greek Communist Party has a large enough base and ruthless Stalinism to prevent large scale infliltration by the intelligence community, however no one has any interest in doing so thanks to the 1974 deal.

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In exchange for legalization and public sector jobs for all it's members, the Communists were to prevent revolutions from occuring, such as the one in 2011.

Here is a map of the Universe of the Greek left with all it's splinters, satellites, planets, ect.

https://ecoleft.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/cf84cebf-cf84ceb1cf81ceb1cf87cf8eceb4ceb5cf82-cf83cf8dcebccf80ceb1cebd-cf84ceb7cf82-ceb5cebbcebbceb7cebdceb9cebaceaecf82-ceb1cf81ceb9.jpg

[oldtimer]

SUMMARY OF CAMPAIGN WEEK 2:

After the Tit for Tat scandals of Week 1, the stench this week is of a different smell.


Government Moves:

3rd increase in the minimum wage.

Food ration coupons for the Easter holidays.

The government did a promotion of the old Helinicon project.

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The now more than a decade old $10 billion construction project by troubled real estate company Lamda, that progresses at snails pace.

The project never made sense, because why would Arabs invest in Athens and not Dubai ?

(Lamda might be a financial ticking bomb, that the greek banks have propped up with loans for years. According to the press some of those banks are now cutting their links to the project due to spiralling costs, endless construction delays, interest rates, and lack of foreign interest.)

The government also announced a further change to the electoral law (the 3rd in 3 years).

The new change is mostly about increasing the size of the court that controls the process from 5 to 10,  in order to increase the governing N.D. majority on the court and make sure that Mitsotakis can ban any opposition party he likes.


Opposition Moves

The Opposition (apart from centrist PASOK) denounced the further change in the electoral law just before the election, and the increased power Mitsotakis will have in the judiciary.

The Vice President of the greek Supreme Civil and Criminal Court also denounced the efforts of Mitsotakis to expand his control of the judiciary. The government replied to the judges that only it has the power to make law, not the judges.


Scandal of the Week

A 5th assasination attempt against the little 12 year old girl that is the center of the great Kolonos Child Prostitution Sex Scandal.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1208050/12-year-old-kolonos-sex-trafficking-victim-suffers-knife-attack-according-to-her-lawyers/

Warning, might be too horrible for those under aged 18:

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She was sold by a medium level ND Athens party official, to be raped by 232 men over a period of 2 years.

https://greekherald.com.au/news/horrific-act-greek-police-identify-man-accused-of-repeatedly-raping-12-year-old-girl/

https://en.rua.gr/2022/10/12/president-of-the-prostitutes-union-h-mihos-from-the-ruling-nd-sold-12-year-old-politicians-along-with-other-underage-girls/

The local police naturally avoided investigating the case or even arrest the culprit, until
the local precinct Captain (who was best pals with the Perpetrator) was replaced, but there is still procrastination by the authorities in investigating the case.

It doesn't help the public image of Mitsotakis that the culprit was well connected and well known to the local Athens politics, (to the point he received large government contracts) and Mitsotakis's associations to a number of people caught in sex scandals with minors.

Hence why some in the press has portayed him as a modern Caligula.
(I won't go further in the press allegations about Mitsotakis himself, they are too salacious even by greek standards, though these days you never know)

Once again I haven't seen a greek government this desperate to retain power since the 1989 elections.

[oldtimer]

And people think the answer to that is to bump the actual victim off??

How utterly sick.

Standard practice for 3rd world countries if you want to prevent a testimony (or Los Angeles circa 1975, which Athens reminds me of, if you make a movie about 1970's southern california this is the place to recreate it).

And I refrain from opening a general thread about Greece just to post the reports of the greek press about local crime, no matter how big the case, if it doesn't affect politics.

But high crime rates do affect the local economy and the international reputation of a country.

[oldtimer]

I forgot to mention that the entire opposition has agreed that in the event of a coalition government, Mitsotakis will not be the PM.
PASOK has gravitated to naming it's ex-leader Vangelis Venizelos as PM.

Mitsotakis has ruled out anyone but himself, and threatened with repeated elections (the bulgarian scenario) until his party has the majority.

[oldtimer]

That scandal involving the ND politician is just WTF. No words to describe it.

About coalitions, are you saying that if there's an Opposition majority, the most likely scenario, the leader of the biggest party in Opposition, Tsipras, will not be PM also? And, if the opposition is able to propose a majority alternative to ND, can Mitsotakis even block it?

It's obvious at this point that PASOK will name Venizelos as PM in the event neither Tsipras or Mitsotakis has a majority, Tsipras will go for it at least temporarily.

But for that to happen you need the government to lose the case of the right to ban parties, which would ensure than ND will not have a majority in a second election (funny enough Venizelos is the biggest supporter of banning parties).

As for the scandal, yeah, I never believed any of the rumours in the press but after the arrest of that greek Supreme Court judge I now say you never know, and that child sex trafficing scandal reinforces it.

[oldtimer]

I did not have "Mitsotakis is taken down by ND being implicated in a child sex trafficking scandal of near-Epstein proportions" on my bingo card. I'm morbidly intrigued to see how this plays out, with all due respect to the victim.

I doubt he will go down just from that.

There was a time last Autumn when the rallying cry of the opposition was that ND where the party of child rapists, because there where too many cases and rumours about the ND party in the past few years.

However ND support is as tribal as any other greek party, it's difficult to squeeze it bellow 33% without a tribal alternative being presented and pushed by the media.

It would need Oligarchs like the Cretan Familias (who control almost all TV stations) to pull the plug on ND by temporarily supporting the opposition, but there is no sign of that so far. The main block is that the Mitsotakis family is part of the Familias too.

[oldtimer]

The senior judge that critisized the government yesterday over it's continuous last minute changes of the electoral law was forced to resign.
The governing ND party now gets to appoint his replacement.

[oldtimer]

Parliament voted to ban National Party – Greeks from the elections. Supreme Court will decide its fate on 5 May:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1645899904148033536

Every few weeks they change the election law.

The problem is the notion that a government by simple majority can do those things and at the very last minute just before the election, in order to blatantly try to lower the threshold for it's own majority.

[oldtimer]

Don't take everything oldtimer writes at face value. He is obviously a leftist who opposes the current government and prone to exaggeration and dramatization.

I'm always well sourced on controversial issues:

https://en.rua.gr/2023/04/10/supreme-court-vice-president-resigns-over-pressure-to-ban-party-greeks/

" Tzanerikos publicly opposed the new amendment, calling it government interference in the judiciary. He called it “unprecedented […] and direct interference in the work of the Supreme Court.” "

As for the specific accusations against me by you:

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I understand your complaints, but my summaries have to be summaries or else it would take thousands of words per day, so I have to condence things to something approaching a news flash.
If you want I can write something long and fun about Greek scandals again.

As for the accusation that I'm a leftist sympathizer, anyone on this forum can be accused of that on something, at least those not Republican.
It's too broad of a term for me to address it.

[oldtimer]

Don't take everything oldtimer writes at face value. He is obviously a leftist who opposes the current government and prone to exaggeration and dramatization.

I'm always well sourced on controversial issues:

https://en.rua.gr/2023/04/10/supreme-court-vice-president-resigns-over-pressure-to-ban-party-greeks/

" Tzanerikos publicly opposed the new amendment, calling it government interference in the judiciary. He called it “unprecedented […] and direct interference in the work of the Supreme Court.” "

As for the specific accusations against me by you:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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I understand your complaints, but my summaries have to be summaries or else it would take thousands of words per day, so I have to condence things to something approaching a news flash.
If you want I can write something long and fun about Greek scandals again.

As for the accusation that I'm a leftist sympathizer, anyone on this forum can be accused of that on something, at least those not Republican.
It's too broad of a term for me to address it.

You tried to link the case of the 12-year old rape victim with ND. Your credibility is less than zero.

I post the sources on greek controversies for all to read, if you are not satisfied you can always post your own sources.

Greek scandals are not top secret, they are been published by greek newspapers all the time.

[oldtimer]

I post the sources on greek controversies for all to read, if you are not satisfied you can always post your own sources.

Greek scandals are not top secret, they have been published by greek newspapers all the time.

Saying that Mitsotakis had "connections" with many of the people who raped the girl is not facts, it's you editorializing and lying.
There was also a member of SYRIZA's central committee among her "clients" but I don't see you mentioning that Tsipras had connections too.

This is my quote that you missquoted :

"It doesn't help the public image of Mitsotakis that the culprit was well connected and well known to the local Athens politics, (to the point he received large government contracts) and Mitsotakis's associations to a number of people caught in sex scandals with minors."

And this is my source since you requested specifics:

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/238094/former-conservative-mp-convicted-of-paying-minors-for-sex/

"Former New Democracy lawmaker Nikos Georgiadis received a 28-month suspended prison sentence on Tuesday and was fined 20,000 euros after being found guilty by an Athens court of repeatedly paying minors for sex."

As to who that person was:

https://vouliwatch.gr/news/article/ektos-grammateias-politikoy-shediasmoy-o-nikos-georgiadis

That article is in greek but it refers him as "Secretary of Political Planning" and "close aid of Mr.Mitsotakis".

So as you see my quote is fairly on the money as a brief description of the situation.

Don't dare me to repost an entire greek sunday newspaper's worth of sourced material just to make you back down, I'm not in to obscure internet feuds, and they are too heavy.
Literally they weigh a good 5-6 pounds with all the extra magazines, they can break a window if you threw them.

And please post your own sources if you are not satisfied with my own.

[oldtimer]

The senior judge that critisized the government yesterday over it's continuous last minute changes of the electoral law was forced to resign.
The governing ND party now gets to appoint his replacement.

What do these last-minute changes consist of?

Instead of litigating the objectivity of the poster who made this claim, it would have been nice if someone could have actually discussed the specific claims involved by, you know, answering my question.

Here is basically a quick summary:

It expands the size of the court that decides the function of the election process from 5 to 10 (temporarily down to 9 after the most recent resignation on Monday of a dissenting judge), defacto increasing the governing party's majority on the court.

The problem is the way and the time that it is done (by simple majority and at the last day in session of the parliament), hence the protests by the opposition and some in the judiciary.

In a soccer match analogy, it's like one team picking the referees just before the match starts.

[oldtimer]

I post the sources on greek controversies for all to read, if you are not satisfied you can always post your own sources.

Greek scandals are not top secret, they have been published by greek newspapers all the time.

Saying that Mitsotakis had "connections" with many of the people who raped the girl is not facts, it's you editorializing and lying.
There was also a member of SYRIZA's central committee among her "clients" but I don't see you mentioning that Tsipras had connections too.

This is my quote that you missquoted :

"It doesn't help the public image of Mitsotakis that the culprit was well connected and well known to the local Athens politics, (to the point he received large government contracts) and Mitsotakis's associations to a number of people caught in sex scandals with minors."

And this is my source since you requested specifics:

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/238094/former-conservative-mp-convicted-of-paying-minors-for-sex/

"Former New Democracy lawmaker Nikos Georgiadis received a 28-month suspended prison sentence on Tuesday and was fined 20,000 euros after being found guilty by an Athens court of repeatedly paying minors for sex."

As to who that person was:

https://vouliwatch.gr/news/article/ektos-grammateias-politikoy-shediasmoy-o-nikos-georgiadis

That article is in greek but it refers him as "Secretary of Political Planning" and "close aid of Mr.Mitsotakis".

So as you see my quote is fairly on the money as a brief description of the situation.

Don't dare me to repost an entire greek sunday newspaper's worth of sourced material just to make you back down, I'm not in to obscure internet feuds, and they are too heavy.
Literally they weigh a good 5-6 pounds with all the extra magazines, they can break a window if you threw them.

And please post your own sources if you are not satisfied with my own.

Georgiadis had no ties with Mitsotakis since 2016 when he was first arrested. To use his name in context with the totally irrelevant 2022 case, and then try to use this non-existent connection as proof that Mitsotakis and ND are knowingly harboring pedophiles, is an odious tactic used by online SYRIZA trolls in a naked attempt to exploit a human tragedy for political purposes.

Here we go again:

And by the way "fushta" means "skirt" in greek.

[oldtimer]

Ok, some ground rules in order to not derail this thread:

Anyone can post news stories about scandals, cases, whatever, but, try to always post a link or a twitter/facebook post of the story from a media outlet/newspaper with a general summary of the story, added with quotes if that's necessary. That way it can be verified and confirmed.

I agree.

[oldtimer]

Summary of Week 3:

Apart from the judicial battles on Monday and Tuesday, nothing due to Easter Holidays.

The Oligarchs where busy about control of the Greek Football Federation:

https://www.vavel.com/en/international-football/2023/04/11/1143441-a-corruption-ring-in-greece-what-is-happening-in-greek-football.html

Though the official statements where milder than the ones 2 weeks ago when they threw skirts at each other:

Also an increase in electricity bills has been announced for May, an average increase of 72% due to an increase in fixed transmision charges of 752.7% (I couldn't find an english translation so it's in greek) :

https://www.newsbomb.gr/oikonomia/story/1415771/nees-megales-afksiseis-apo-1i-maiou-sta-pagia-tou-ilektrikoy-reymatos-analytika-paradeigmata

However most people wont receive their bloated power bills until after the election of May 21st.

[oldtimer]

What governing coalition is most likely with ND coming in 1st place, but losing their majority? Greece is one of the countries that have little experience with coalition govts. SYRIZA governed with the right populist ANEL before; ND with the Social Dems after the 2012 election.

In the first elections any coalition that gets around 47% of the vote.
Most likely a Tsipras-PASOK-Varoufakis coalition.

In subsequent elections, in case the first election isn't rerun for legal issues (there is always a possibility of a screw up with the courts), 1st party around 38%, coalitions with 1st party 40% (could be lower if "The Greeks" are banned). Mitsotakis-PASOK or Mitsotakis-Velopoulos are the probable coalitions.

Right now newspaper estimates converge on the folowing:

Mitsotakis 33-34%
Tsipras 30-31%
PASOK 11-12%
Communists 5-6%
Velopoulos 5-6%
Varoufakis 4-5%

Bonus "The Greeks" party (will know on May 4th if they are banned) 4-5%

All others way bellow the 3% threshold to enter parliament.

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

Unlike in 2012, small parties are already small and non-squeezable, with the exception of PASOK which may be squeezed a bit, everyone already is running on core supporters.

[oldtimer]

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

And Tsipras? Is he willing to accept PM Venizelos instead of himself?

He hasn't been a categorical No as Mitsotakis has.

The problem for Venizelos being PM in a center-left coalition is his aggresive personal style, and his policy baggage from the 2011-2015 period.
He almost led PASOK out of Parliament, so he is not a popular figure to say the least.

Other potential names that I have read or heard, in case Venizelos isn't acceptable to the non-PASOK center left:

Giannis Stournaras, relatively unpopular ex-finance minister and current central banker, has stayed quiet since the Tsipras U-Turn of 2015, his term expires next year.

Nikos Alivizatos, front-man legal scholar for various centrist groups, always very outspoken  and confrontational in public.

None of them ideal solutions when they need someone who isn't strongly minded and has no political baggage, a figurehead as plain as white toast to keep everyone happy.

Ideally, Costas Skandalidis comes to mind, but no one has mentioned him even as a rumour.

[oldtimer]

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

And Tsipras? Is he willing to accept PM Venizelos instead of himself?

He hasn't been a categorical No as Mitsotakis has.

The problem for Venizelos being PM in a center-left coalition is his aggresive personal style, and his policy baggage from the 2011-2015 period.
He almost led PASOK out of Parliament, so he is not a popular figure to say the least.

Other potential names that I have read or heard, in case Venizelos isn't acceptable to the non-PASOK center left:

Giannis Stournaras, relatively unpopular ex-finance minister and current central banker, has stayed quiet since the Tsipras U-Turn of 2015, his term expires next year.

Nikos Alivizatos, front-man legal scholar for various centrist groups, always very outspoken  and confrontational in public.

None of them ideal solutions when they need someone who isn't strongly minded and has no political baggage, a figurehead as plain as white toast to keep everyone happy.

Ideally, Costas Skandalidis comes to mind, but no one has mentioned him even as a rumour.

From what I understand from your perspective, another election is much more likely than anything else. We'll see what happens.

Also, have parties already presented their campaign slogans and posters? That is always a fun thing to watch.

If the Center-Left has 151 seats after the 1st election they will probably form a government.

In a 2nd election they will all lose a lot of seats, and all will be in a worse negotiating position vs Mitsotakis.

That is a big incentive.

And unlike in Portugal, the Office of the Presidency in Greece is just a "cosmetic flower pot", that is also unpopular, so it plays no role. (most greeks I suspect would gladly vote to abolish it, to save money and avoid embarrassment)

[oldtimer]

If the Center-Left has 151 seats after the 1st election they will probably form a government.

In a 2nd election they will all lose a lot of seats, and all will be in a worse negotiating position vs Mitsotakis.

That is a big incentive.

And unlike in Portugal, the Office of the Presidency in Greece is just a "cosmetic flower pot", that is also unpopular, so it plays no role. (most greeks I suspect would gladly vote to abolish it, to save money and avoid embarrassment)

I see. Well, to be honest, and to not derail this topic with "Portugalization", after an election, the President here has little power in reality. He nominates a PM "based on the election results", but Parliament can always force him to pick another PM, just look what happened in late 2015. Adding to the fact that the law forbids any dissolution of Parliament six months after the swearing in of a new one, plus, "Presidential appointed governments" are basically impossible in the current system, so in a deadlock situation, the country would get a lame duck government for more than half a year. But, I understand what you mean.

In Greece the President has no legal power or authority to do anything, it's elected by parliament by plurality, so the public have no say either and no one cares, it's not even popular.

So it's just a waste of money and time, if it's abolished no one would notice or shed tears.

The President of UNESCO has more authority and popularity in Greece due to all the antiquities.

[oldtimer]

I’m surprised PASOK are keen on Venizelos, didn’t he basically quit in 2019?

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/241152/venizelos-quits-socialist-kinal/

I guess they need someone popular with the oligarchy who could push ND to ditch Mitsotakis

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The evolution of the oligarchy in greece is a long story, ND mostly aligns with the Shipping Oligarchs who are the only survivors from the domestic economic crisis, PASOK mostly aligned with the interests of Banking and Construction Oligarchs who wiped themselves out, by supporting the very economic policies that led to their own demise

 But that comes at the cost of popularity among voters.

[oldtimer]

Demographically/socially, what is PASOK's voter base like these days?

New Money and Old People.

A bit like the modern Democrats, but since there are far less people in Greece who became rich in the past 30 years without losing their fortunes in the crash, their level of support is far far lower.

Especially since the Finance and Entertainment sectors practically no longer exist, all those advertising executives and bankers that where their vanguard are gone.

So their average voter I would guess would be a 70 year old retired senior civil servant.

[oldtimer]

Summary of Week 4 of the Campaign:

1.Hearthrob Actor and SYRIZA MEP Alex Georgoulis was suspended after the ex-girfriend of the Leader of PASOK accused him of raping her 3 years ago.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/athens-on-fire-as-mep-faces-rape-accusations/

https://en.protothema.gr/pasoks-eleni-chronopoulou-her-serious-accusations-against-georgoulis-bring-turmoil-to-the-greek-political-scene/

There is a potential love triangle, so I'm not going any further.

3 out of 21 Greek MEP's have been arrested or suspended in the past 6 months.


2. "The Greeks" party dissolved after it was considered that the ban by Mitsotakis will be upheld by the new judges, instead another party might absorb them at the risk of Mitsotakis banning them too.


3. The Velopoulos party lost 2 of it's MP's after Velopoulos himself make public the rumours that Mitsotakis was bribing 3 of his MP's to support him after the elections.

Two of those MP's that he named left his party today, perhaps to join Mitsotakis a bit earlier than planned.

He also hinted that an MP from PASOK (probably Andreas Loverdos) will also join Mitsotakis.

(I couldn't find an english version, so it's in greek)

https://www.kathimerini.gr/politics/562385101/ektos-ellinikis-lysis-aikaterini-alexopoyloy-kai-antonis-mylonakis-meta-tis-aitiaseis-peri-apostasias/

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The buying and selling of MP's is (allegedly) frequent in Greece, here is an alleged (alleged only because the greek courts fudge ) attempt in 2014 in order for then PM Samaras to obtain enough MP's to prevent a 2015 early election, it's in greek but it has a 1 hour recorded video of the attempt.

https://www.zougla.gr/politiki/article/to-video-pou-den-ide-to-fos-tis-dimosiotitas

Here is a publication in english of the case, without videos though:

https://www.tovima.gr/2014/12/22/international/apostolopoulos-denies-involvement-in-attempted-haikalis-bribery/

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/165666/parliaments-ethics-panel-mulls-haikalis-bribery-claims-copies-video-for-party-leaders-update/

13 MP's (a record at that time) switched their allegiance to Samaras in that effort, but he still fell short.

Mitsotakis himself is not inexperienced in those things, his father became PM and was toppled by the same practices in 1990 and 1993.

[oldtimer]

Yeah, I would assume that the current PASOK voter base is basically elderly, that is still reminiscent of the "glory days" of Andreas governments.

Also, is this having any impact in the campaign?:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1647993762667274246

Lots of pre-election fire and fury by the parties, an impact however probably not:

1.There are very few swing voters in Greece during an election campaign, most people have already decided months ago.

2.That MEP has a loyal female fanbase that is already out to defend him.

3.The potential love triangle with the Leader of PASOK complicates things.

4.SYRIZA makes the argument of why did the accusation of a rape 3 years ago happen now, which will be convincing enough for their voters.

Anything that gets published from now on will probably only move the neddle 1% here or there, so it's mostly for gossip.

[oldtimer]

Wait, the woman in question is Eleni Chronopoulou, right? She was Nikos Androulakis ex-girlfriend? I'm not finding that anywhere.

I think his private sex life is protected by european data protection laws since he is an MEP, local greek newspapers have published it though.

Androulakis has guarded his private life very well, most people don't know that he even has a family, so the list of his past girlfriends are probably only available to journalists.