Predict the 43rd Canadian federal election, 2019

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP are reduced to one or two seats in Québec (Caron might survive? maybe REB?), but make enough advances in the GTA and Vancouver that it isn't a total loss. BQ and its associated independents all lose for good.

The NDP will lose its rural seats yes, but where's the evidence they would lose their seats in Montreal? Boulerice will in the very least keep his seat. The Plateau is very, very left wing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Can someone explain to me why people think the NDP are collapsing in Quebec? Why would that happen?

Because Quebecers are racist. Socially progressive racists.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see the Liberals winning many of those seats.

Maybe one or both of the Barrie seats. It will also depend on if some popular incumbents retire. Milton, Niagara Falls and Brantford-Brant are all possible pickups if their incumbents don't run for re-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see the Liberals winning many of those seats.

Maybe one or both of the Barrie seats. It will also depend on if some popular incumbents retire. Milton, Niagara Falls and Brantford-Brant are all possible pickups if their incumbents don't run for re-election.

For especially Oshawa, Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Sarnia-Lambton it also depends on how well the NDP does.

The Liberals won't win any of those seats. The latter two have become true blue SW rurban ridings, while Oshawa suffers from divided non-Tory loyalties. The NDP will futilely target it again. 

[Hatman 🍁]

If Singh is still leader, the NDP will have a good chance (and will put a lot of resources) into winning Brampton North, Brampton Centre, and probably Brampton West and Brampton South too.