Two areas to watch in terms of Liberal vulnerability in Ontario:
York Region: These weren't blowouts like in Peel and Ajax/Pickering; it was mostly narrow Liberal victories and the Conservatives got more than 40% of the vote virtually everywhere. The PCs under Ford got over 50% of the vote in York Region. It seems to have emerged as the most Conservative of the GTA suburban regions; even a pretty xenophobic Tory campaign in 2015 didn't take them out of contention. Of course Scheer doesn't have the "hometown advantage" here that Ford sort of did (most of the money for the Fords municipal campaigns came from Vaughan).
The Bay of Quinte area: More "liberal" than Eastern Ontario east of Kingston, the Liberals narrowly won Northumberland and Hastings-L&A and won Bay of Quinte by a surprisingly big margin. But these could fall back to the Tories with just a slight wearing off of the 2015 red wave.
As a BoQ resident, i dont really see it.
Incumbent MP Neil Ellis was a popular mayor of Belleville before he ran for MP and there's nothing to suggest he's in jeopardy. Unless of course the nationally environment breaks heavy towards the Tories which i also doubt.
there is one x factor in this race however: The CPC candidate for our riding is a well liked radio host and political lightweight named Tim Durkin.
and who is the MPP for Bay of Quinte? Todd Smith, a former well liked radio host and political lightweight.
