2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[kireev]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points. Yet the modeled request/return ballots look a lot like the polling ID.

There is no way these numbers are right just based on the geography of returned ballots.

[kireev]

Hays County is super high at 14,014 for day 1

Wow, that's 20% of the 2016 total vote

[kireev]

Maricopa
New update:
All: 169739  Dem: 78333  Rep: 53436 Other: 37970
Dem: 46.1  Rep: 31.5 Other: 22.4

Is that good for Dems or expected?

Yes. The largest lead Ds ever had in AZ early vote return in 2016 was about 7k. If AZ Ds maintain a lead, that will be a good sign.


https://mobile.twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1311763867903553536

Very nice!
Do we have similar data for 2018?

[kireev]

=it's pretty clear the majority of voters in Milwaukee county will vote on election day.=

I actually don't think so. 45% of registered voters in Milwaukee county requested mail ballots. And we have in-person early vote is coming up.

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

I did no realize there was such a significant turnout difference between democrats and republicans in FL 2016...  Do we have the numbers for 2018?

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

I did no realize there was such a significant turnout difference between democrats and republicans in FL 2016...  Do we have the numbers for 2018?

Not sure but I think the common wisdom in Florida is that republicans can only win if democratic turnout is lower than theirs.  Biden seems likely to win Florida independents so that’s probably especially true this year.

I found this:  Tampa Bay largely mirrored the rest of Florida. Republicans’ turnout rate was about 68 percent, compared to 60 percent for Democrats. https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/12/21/florida-republicans-turnout-beat-democrats-except-among-young-voters/

I could not find data for FL, but from the article it's pretty clear that even in 2018 republicans had a several points higher turnout than democrats.

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1317448995569094656

This makes me optimistic about Florida...

I did no realize there was such a significant turnout difference between democrats and republicans in FL 2016...  Do we have the numbers for 2018?

Not sure but I think the common wisdom in Florida is that republicans can only win if democratic turnout is lower than theirs.  Biden seems likely to win Florida independents so that’s probably especially true this year.

I found this:  Tampa Bay largely mirrored the rest of Florida. Republicans’ turnout rate was about 68 percent, compared to 60 percent for Democrats. https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/12/21/florida-republicans-turnout-beat-democrats-except-among-young-voters/

I could not find data for FL, but from the article it's pretty clear that even in 2018 republicans had a several points higher turnout than the democrats.

Right that’s why I don’t buy that this huge Democratic early turnout doesn’t matter.  Democrats are by and large lower propensity voters banking big votes is a very good thing.

I would also say it does matter. It does not guarantee Biden's victory, but it's a sign of high democratic enthusiasm.

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317497769964244992

Early vote rate seems slower in Harris County today compared to weekdays over past week (usually had around 34k-35k at noon report, but this tweet says 11 am so maybe this is slightly outdated?) but still fairly strong.

Come on it's Saturday. People get up and do things later on Saturdays compared to weekdays.

[kireev]

https://twitter.com/Andy_Eads/status/1318364228982628352

Denton County, TX up to 62.2% of 2016 turnout.

Could we see 100% of 2016 in Denton before the early voting period is over?

I'd say if it's at 62.2% now then it's almost inevitable.

[kireev]

=- Republican need a really very big turnout on election day and even that may not be enough for them.=

In IA voters requested 783K mail ballots, which is about 50% of the 2016 turnout. In 2020 turnout is going to be higher, so mail in votes are going to be maybe around 45% of the total votes or so? Republicans can easily close that gap on the election day. The problem is that Rep turnout in 2016 was 87%, Dem 80% and no party 69%. (I am comparing the numbers in this article https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/13/analysis-trumps-iowa-victory-fueled-republican-turnout-independents/96496834/ to the voter registration numbers in November of 2016 https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CoNov16.pdf).  Almost 7 point difference in turnout between Republicans and Democrats - that's pretty big. Republicans can definitely catch up on the election day - and they probably will. But at this point it does not look like there is going to be a 7 point difference in turnout between Dems and Reps.

[kireev]

The WA Secretary of State website has pretty cool statistics, which compares the 2020 and 2016 turnout rates in WA.

https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx

So as of now 14 days before the election the turnout rate is 17.6% and at the same point in 2016 it was only 6.2%! Some counties are at almost 0%, so it's just a mail delay or reporting issue, and other counties are at over 30% and even over 40%. And this is just 4-5 days or so after people started receiving their ballots in the mail!

[kireev]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

May I remind you that the REP turnout in 2016 was 7 points higher than DEM turnout in 2016! We actually discussed that here several days ago. Yes, REPs may and probably will eventually catch up to DEMs in FL, but it's still going to be a big improvement for DEMs compared to 2016.

[kireev]

Michael McDonald tweeted on Nov 1st, 2016, just a week before the election,  that DEM advantage in CO was 2.6% after just over a million votes. https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793477147964899328
We are at  1,237,892   votes 13 days before the election and DEM advantage is 16 points. The difference is pretty huge.

[kireev]

Michael McDonald tweeted on Nov 1st, 2016, just a week before the election,  that DEM advantage in CO was 2.6% after just over a million votes. https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793477147964899328
We are at  1,237,892   votes 13 days before the election and DEM advantage is 16 points. The difference is pretty huge.

Neither Hillary, nor Biden were/are going to lose Colorado.

True. But it shows higher voter enthusiasm on the democratic side (and I cautiously say it also hints at Biden's double digit win in CO), and that the turnout is going to be higher this time - but that we also knew before.

[kireev]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

Thanks God Texas does not have party registration - Atlas would be freaking out all day long