WI - Marquette Law: Evers underwater

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

tilt/lean r

Alright Solid let's not be too hasty it's a yr before an Election and Johnson Approvals are bad too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree. If the election was today, the generic R would win by about 10 points as they won Virginia by 2 and lost New Jersey by 1.

Johnson is below 50 percent To y Where would not lose by 10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R.

o
Overreaction to the Election results the race isn't for a ye

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin was always going to be an incredibly tough hold, especially given Evers' very lackluster performance in 2018 history and the strength of the WIGOP, Tilt R is fair for now, but Evers was always going to have an uphill battle from the moment that Biden won.

Biden is leading in WI, by 4 pts and you still believe D's are gonna win FL after polls show D's down 12 and 19 pta

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Starting to wonder if every statewide election in a state that wasn't Biden by double digits in 2020 is gone in 2022?

News flash Johnson is below 50% and Biden is leading by 4 in WI, it's a 384 blue wall that includes WI, PA and MI, Rs haven't won WI for a generation they just won it during the Walker and Ryan generation, it's never gone

It has 12% Blk, IA is gone with 2% blk


You only pick out the R parts of polls you never pick out D parts and Johnson isn't at 50%, I noticed that about you

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Starting to wonder if every statewide election in a state that wasn't Biden by double digits in 2020 is gone in 2022?

Again, people are extrapolating way too much from VA and NJ (esp given other circumstances in NJ).

PA and GA would suggest otherwise.

Oh wow local races in Georgia are clearly a much better indicator of the midterms than VA.

I mean none of those states are actually particularly like Wisconsin. I know it’s semi in vogue on this forum to treat GA like its own microcosm and everything else as a unified bloc but assuming linearity between these two Governor elections (a year apart!) is a tad ridiculous.

I think Virginia mostly just confirmed other peoples priors about a bad year coming up for Democrats. Maybe just a mildly R leaning year but a wave is also possible. Its hard to see Evers survive either such event. Obviously this poll is bad due to no Kleefisch.  Its pretty sad when a user is bringing up local municipal races as proof of a nationwide indicator. At that point one might as well argue the year will be R+70 because Republicans won a race in Seattle.

We are gonna have higher turnout than 2021 and we didn't have Fed candidates running in 2021 WI is a D plus 2 state according to Cook standards everything isn't about VA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R

Evers was not a good governor, Wisconsin Democrats should ask him to retire and look for someone who can hold the seat.

No it's not Biden is at 49% Approval and if he winds up at 50/45 we win WI, OA and MI, D's wind up exactly at their Prez Approvals and we won.WI in 2020

Biden doesn't have to be at 503 until Nov not Jan 22