CO-PPP: Obama, with 50% disapproval, leads Romney by 7, others by more

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Perry

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

[pbrower2a]

This sample is too democratic I believe. Not that it matters because I can't see ibama losing CO

Yep. Even by a registered voter model they nicely got themselves an excess of D's.

It is too early to figure who will be the registered voters of 2012. Democrats and their political associates will do everything possible to register as many new voters as possible in Colorado and elsewhere -- as in 2008. I am satisfied that the McCain-Obama gap is a fair representation of the likely split.

[pbrower2a]

It is too early to figure who will be the registered voters of 2012. Democrats and their political associates will do everything possible to register as many new voters as possible in Colorado and elsewhere -- as in 2008. I am satisfied that the McCain-Obama gap is a fair representation of the likely split.

Voter registration figures are readily available. The fact that some choose to ignore them is more a sign of the bias of the ignorer than reality.

So people who voted for President Obama are moving out of Colorado? To what states? I can accept that explanation of Pennsylvania drifting R, with what used to be liberal Pennsylvanians moving to Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia and voting there.

 

[pbrower2a]

Without Colorado, and assuming nothing crazy like Rs winning MI or NJ or WI, the Republican candidate will need one of

- IA + NV
- VA
- PA

And those are all really, really tough.

Add Ohio, which is far from a slam dunk for Republicans.

[pbrower2a]

I'm surprised at how fast and how much Colorado has moved to the Democrats. It has become the opposite of West Virginia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._States_by_Education_attainment

I'm not making any kind of snarky point about the electorate, but this is predictive of how social issues, broadly defined, can trump economic issues.

It could also be that people in hock for student loans are more likely to be liberals on economic issues because as debtors they are the ones who might have to surrender the "pound of flesh".  This may be much of the explanation for Democrats getting the young-adult vote in recent years. Creditors (even if they are simply net savers with a small insurance policy, bank accounts, or bonds) tend to be conservatives and debtors tend to be liberals.