Why current trends won’t last past 2028

[Lechasseur]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

The GOP will have to retool and there are 3 things it must do in such a retool:


- Move left on Healthcare : They should embrace a compulsory private system except with strict price regulations on providers and pharmaceuticals. So basically more of a Bismarck style system just without a Public Option

- Move to the left on Climate Change : Again you don’t need to support carbon taxes for this but be in favor of green infrastructure

- Actually do something on Housing

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

The GOP will have to retool and there are 3 things it must do in such a retool:


- Move left on Healthcare : They should embrace a compulsory private system except with strict price regulations on providers and pharmaceuticals. So basically more of a Bismarck style system just without a Public Option

- Move to the left on Climate Change : Again you don’t need to support carbon taxes for this but be in favor of green infrastructure

- Actually do something on Housing

Agreed

It will happen but how it happens is the choice the GOP makes.

Either :

-  The GOP realizes this and adapts on these issues voluntarily

- The GOP will be dragged much more left than this on these issues and a whole bunch of others kicking and screaming due to election defeats after defeats.

Yes agreed