Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Any reason for the recent Podemos spike?

Emotional  appeal , effective campaign, good performance in debates, the  effect oficial regional alliances , mistakes made  by rivals... we  have a volatile scenario and  many undecided voters , so any event in the campaign may   change the parties fortunes in one way or another ...

[Velasco]

Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?

Interestingly, Tomato leader Alberto Garzón has a good approval rate and his rallies are crowded. However, his popularity does not guarantee a good price for the product in the market.

The difference between failure and success is number 5 (seats required to form a parliamentary group).

Maybe Aubergines didn't want to bundle heir wares with Tomatoes, because of electoral marketing strategy. According to that, they wanted to pick in the Strawberry grounds and Tomatoes didn't a lot to help.

[Velasco]

MEANWHILE  Rajoy's attacker seems to be a relative of his wife. Some kind of domestic squabble?

I don't  think so. That distant relative of Rajoy' s wife is just a brainless teenager. Sadly, the incident  helps PP. On the other hand , the conservative party is making a good campaign that has achieved a little miracle humanizing  Rajoy.

lol what is this:

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I love Spain, I really do; but it really has a weird attitude sometimes.
Meanwhile:

C's candidate in Cantabria proclaims that "abortion is a form of violence". Ok then.

Rajoy's marvelous response when asked about corruption allegations :  "What does that have to do with the economy?" Indeed.

My MP apparently made a deep observation about Spanish politics to a journalist: "When Nick Clegg saw the documents, he told me Cameron […] would only have lasted 'a few hours' after the publication of something that big", he writes: "But in Spain, British or North American democratic habits are conspicuously absent".

PP targets .... hipsters? https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=W_VQbsuRXl4

That article is really weird, but  I don't judge  the attitude of Americans according to what  Rush  Limbaugh  says .

The statements of that C's candidate and some stances on gender violence suggest that maybe oranges don't fit  exactly in the 'social liberal' label .

Rajoy's response speaks for itself and reflects a mentality. Shame.

Funnily enough the bearded guy in the video is not really a hipster but  a PP  councilor  devotee of the Virgin  of El  Rocío  and bullfighting aficionado.

[Velasco]

Market prices in Andorra today:

Water 26.6 (111-115 stands )

Strawberries 20.8 (82-86)

Aubergines 20.1 (70-74)

Oranges  15.5  (47-51)

Tomatoes  4.4 (2-4)

[Velasco]

Tonight's last report from Andorra:

Water 26.6 (112-116)

Aubergines 21.4  (80-84)

Strawberries 20.1 (76-80)

Oranges 15.3  (45-49)

Tomatoes 4 (1-3)

[Velasco]

Options:
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)

Do Bildu take their seats in the Cortes?

Apart from the Canarian Coalition, who may or may not take a seat, none of the remaining nationalist parties are likely to find a PP/C arrangement palatable.

Yes , Bildu MPs will  take their seats.

No way. Only CC could support such arrangement. It'd be a PP minority government in any case.

Booths closed in the Canaries at 8:00 GMT. From now on, official results will appear in the Interior website.

LOL Convergencia 

[Velasco]

Yes . En Comu Podem is Podemos , ICV , EUiA (IU) and Barcelona en Comu.

[Velasco]

Count at 25%:

PP 125 seats , PSOE 96,  Podemos 63, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, UP (IU) 2

As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?

Ciudadanos is right of the centre and won 't support such arrangement because Podemos is in favour of holding a referendum in Catalonia.

[Velasco]

Seats with count at 42.7%

PP 122, PSOE 98, Podemos 70, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, IU 2

[Velasco]

I still think PSOE and Podemos could gather enough support with Catalan (and Basque ?) nationalists to form government on promises of referendum(s). It's the only shot at an absolute majority, anyway. I don't think PSOE+Podemos+C's is manageable.

No. I don't see Pedro Sánchez leading a very weak government propped up by Catalan separatists on the promise of a referendum in Catalonia . That would tear PSOE apart  and  Andalusian premier Susana Díaz  would never allow such a move .

Right now, I can hardly see a way to prevent another election within a few months.

[Velasco]

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA.

WTF !!!

[Velasco]

Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.

[Velasco]

All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

[Velasco]

https://team.cartodb.com/u/piensaenpixel/viz/2016460c-a7c5-11e5-90ff-0e98b61680bf/embed_map


Very nice map, very detailed.

Good find, thank you

 .

What's exactly the role of the Senate?

The most extended opinion is that our Senate is a rather useless legislative body .Anyway, search for the "Spanish Senate " entry in the Wikipedia for further details on its role and organization.

I apologize  for the bad ortography in my previous post. I don't know how to change the configuration of the fycking device that I'm using.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez, who is under big pressure from all sides including his own party, faced PSOE barons this morning. "Territorial integrity of Spain is not up for debate":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/28/inenglish/1451310221_233637.html

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Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias met Mariano Rajoy at La Moncloa. Afterwards Iglesias told reporters that he is "massively dissapointed" with Pedro Sánchez. Mr Iglesias won't give up on the issue of the referendum in Catalonia -that is unacceptable for the socialists, especially for 'barons' like Susana Díaz- and demands that PSOE takes a position on a number of social measures that Podemos wants to implement.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/28/inenglish/1451308259_640441.html

On a side note, I find some demagoguery in the way that referendum proposal is depicted by naysayers. PP, PSOE and C's spokepersons say that Podemos aims to break Spain, even though Mr Iglesias stated he would campaign against independence in case the consultation was to take place. On the other hand it's likely that Pablo Iglesias aims a new election in which his party could grow at the expense of the Spanish socialists (and PP at the expense of C's), hence some people think that he says referendum is not negotiable because he kows it's a condition PSOE cannot accept. In any case Podemos could not give up without alienating regional allies, especially the Catalan and namely Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau.  

Mariano Rajoy met with Albert Rivera. The front man of Ciudadanos stated that his party will abstain in Rajoy's investiture and demands that socialists do the same, allowing PP leader to continue as PM in a second vote. Rivera would like  an entente PP-PSOE-C's in order to provide stability, enact some reforms and preserve the integrity of Spain. This option seems to be very popular in some media (yesterday I read Mario Vargas Llosa supporting it).

[Velasco]

Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Catalan separatists never disappoint me

[Velasco]

Artur Mas wil not step down:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/04/inenglish/1451909580_715089.html

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[Velasco]

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

There's another factor that makes a difference between Catalunya Sí que es Pot and En Comú Podem, that is the engagement Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú in the general election. Actually, the main reference of the 'alternative left' in Catalonia is the Mayoress of Barcelona and not Pablo Iglesias. I haven't found polls for the Catalan elections conducted after December 20. In case the ECP alliance is going to be replicated in an early election to take place in March, with Colau taking a starring role, results could be a bit different. Another important factor would be a breakdown of the Junts pel Sí alliance.

[Velasco]

I think that poll doesn't reflect the state of public opinion at this moment. Anyway, I never trusted NC Report and La Razón

[Velasco]

d) will Iceta manage to win a majority for the PSC with his amazing dance moves? I'm sure he's been practising

Ah, welcome to Polònia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWabXIPGmJI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjYHUGIJ4wM

[Velasco]

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

It's a bit more complicated than that. Catalonia has a long tradition of dual behaviour in elections, as it was pointed before, so there are few places in Spain where general and regional elections are so different contests. However, the deadlock is not only located in Madrid. The procés is reaching a dead end in the last few days both because of its unrealistic goals (despite separatists lost the 'plebiscite' by a narrow margin) and the absurd vaudeville starred by the stubborn Artur Mas and the CUP, embroiled in never-ending assemblies. The ERC can be a winner in this situation, because it places itself in the centrality of the separatist spectrum. Anyway, vote switches in Catalonia are multidirectional and there are grey areas inbetween separatists and unionists. For instance, the CUP itself collected voters from ERC (disaffected with the dealings with Artur Mas) in the last regional election. As well it collected votes from the 'radical' left, helped by the ambiguous positioning of Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú (some members called to vote for the CSP, others for the CUP). Now that the two souls in the CUP (the separatist and the radical leftist) have collided on Artur Mas, who knows. The CUP didn't run in the general election: according to polls, 32% switched to En Comú Podem and 25% to ERC.     

[Velasco]

Artur Mas: "On Monday I will sign the decree calling new elections". Another headline: "Catalan presidency is not a fish auction"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/05/inenglish/1451989708_020302.html

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[Velasco]

Podemos wins the overseas vote. Turnout was only 4.7%, mainly because of the difficulties with the voto rogado ("requested vote") system. In previous elections, before that system was implemented, turnout used to be 30% or so. The uneven turnout figures by region are worth mentioning. For instance, in the Canaries 4.2% of the overseas roll requested to vote but votes cast were only 1%. Apparently mail service malfunction in countries like Cuba and Venezuela is connected with extremely low turnouts in Galicia and the Canary Islands. Anyway, results (interactive map by constituency through the link):

Podemos 23,908 votes (27.04%)

PP 20,492 (23.17%)

PSOE 14,885 (16.84%)

C's 14,465 (16.36%)

IU 3,406 (3.85%)

http://ctxt.es/es/20160106/Politica/3617/voto-rogado-elecciones-participacion-Espa%C3%B1a-Elecciones-20D-

Results by region:

http://www.espanaexterior.com/upload/archivo/680-votoceragenerales20d2015.pdf

[Velasco]

The opening session of the new parliament is taking place this morning.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/13/inenglish/1452673886_901645.html

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Live coverage in Spanish

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/13/media/1452667694_891503.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM

[Velasco]

New year's polls

Metroscopia / El País (Jan 17)
PP 29%, Podemos 22.5%, PSOE 21.1%, C's 16.6%, IU-UP 3.2%, Others 7.6%

Invymark / La Sexta (Jan 16)
PP 30.8%, Podemos 21.6%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 12.6%, IU-UP 3.5%, Others 10.7%

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

It's not as difficult as it sounds. Puigdemont is aware that it's hard to get enough popular support for the UDI, but hopes that a majority passes a new constitution that would give them enough legitimacy to proclaim independence.   

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/15/inenglish/1452846497_004745.html

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