Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers:
Just to note the 291/47 haven't been cracked since 2016 Benghazi Hillary and Spoiler Gary Johnson and Nate Silver 538 is the 278 blue wall, it's not my methodology, it's his
MATTROSE94:
Republicans easily win all Democratic held Senate seats except Hawaii, California, Oregon, New York, and Washington.
NewYorkExpress:
Quote from: MATTROSE94 on December 10, 2020, 11:39:02 PM
Republicans easily win all Democratic held Senate seats except Hawaii, California, Oregon, New York, and Washington.
Honestly, if you're predicting that strong a Republican wave, I'd give them Washington and Oregon too.
MATTROSE94:
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on December 11, 2020, 12:45:17 AM
Quote from: MATTROSE94 on December 10, 2020, 11:39:02 PM
Republicans easily win all Democratic held Senate seats except Hawaii, California, Oregon, New York, and Washington.
Honestly, if you're predicting that strong a Republican wave, I'd give them Washington and Oregon too.
Ron Wyden is a strong incumbent who survived in tough years for the Democrats, so he should be ok in 2022 (though he probably only wins by 10% against Greg Walden). Also, I don’t have Washington voting Republican until Ron DeSantis’ landslide reelection bid against AOC in 2028, so it remains in Democratic hands in 2022, albeit by a reduced margin when compared to past elections. The New York Senate seat I think could be interesting in 2028, as New York probably narrowly votes for Ron DeSantis for reelection in 2028.
NewYorkExpress:
I'm also not going to bother with Governor's ratings, but I'm willing to share my Senate ratings.
Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Lean R (though I'd be surprised if Lisa Murkowski ends up running.)
Arizona: Lean R(flip)
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Lean D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Lean R
Georgia: Lean R (possible flip if Warnock wins next month)
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Indiana: Likely R (I could drop it to lean R if Pete Buttigeig jumps in)
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R (Though if Laura Kelly runs here instead of for reelection as Governor, I can put Kansas at Lean R at worst)
Kentucky: Safe R
Louisiana: Safe R
Maryland: Safe D (though if Larry Hogan actually runs, I'd have it as Likely D)
Missouri: Likely R
Nevada: Tossup
New Hampshire: Tossup (if Chris Sunnunu follows through and runs, it's Likely R)
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean R
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Tossup
South Carolina: Lean R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D (though if Phil Scott runs, it's Likely D, and if Scott runs and Pat Leahy doesn't, it's Lean D )
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Tossup
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