Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
Canis:
Governor
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Senate
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If Sununu runs for Senate NH gov moves to Tilt D and NH sen moves to tossup if he doesn't NH sen moves to safe D
MT Treasurer:
Likely: Not competitive at this point, but has the potential to become competitive
Lean: Competitive but one party has an advantage
Tilt: Competitive but one party has a slight advantage
Toss-up : The most competitive races which either party has a good chance of winning
SENATE
GOVERNOR
RussFeingoldWasRobbed:
Senate
Safe D
CA
CO
CT
HI
MD- Likely D with Hogan
IL- Likely D without Duckworth
OR- Likely D without Wyden
VT- Lean D with Scott and not leahy, Likely D with both
Tilt D
NH(Tossup w/Sununu, Lean D without)
Tossup
AZ
GA
NV
PA
Tilt R
NC
Lean R
WI
Likely R
AK
FL
Govs
Safe D
CA
CO
IL
HI
MD(Open)(FLIP)
NJ
NY
VA
Likely D
CT- Lean D without Lamont
OR
RI
Lean D
ME
MN
NM
NV
Tilt D
KS
MI
PTU
AZ
GA
PA
WI
Lean R
AK
Likely R
FL- DeSantis
Safe R
MA- Likely D without Baker
NH- Tossup without Sununu
VT- Likely D without Scott
ElectionsGuy:
I'm just going to do Senate for now because Governor races can be very difficult to predict early on.
Early 2022 Senate Ratings
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To start off, I'm going to take what we've learned about 2020 results and assume a Lean GOP environment, not even a GOP wave as that's too premature, but history suggests at least a Lean R environment is likely.
1. Arizona (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Odds are, Kelly will get a better opponent than McSally in a state where Republicans already (very narrowly) won the congressional vote in 2020. He is highly vulnerable in a Lean R environment, after only winning by 2-3 against McSally in 2020, but he did overperform both Biden and House Dems which is why I think it's a toss-up and not Lean R. ~60% chance it flips GOP
2. Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt R): As a state that votes to the left of Arizona, one might wonder why I'm rating it the same way. A few reasons, 1) Cortez-Masto performed like an average Democrat in 2016 2) The state has been trending Republican over the past few cycles (In 2018 and 2020 Democrats underperformed the national swing) 3) She's vulnerable to a turnout drop with younger voters and minorities that could disproportionately hurt Democrats. However, it still remains to be seen whether GOP can keep their gains with Latinos and certain Asians and if they can nominate a good candidate. ~55% chance it flips GOP
3. Pennsylvania (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Largely due to Toomey's retirement, and the fact that this state has been consistently slightly less GOP than Wisconsin in 2018 and 2020. But, GOP already winning the House vote in 2020 doesn't bode well for Democrats in a Lean R environment. ~65% chance it stays GOP
4. New Hampshire (Lean D): In 2020, there was a decent swing to the left in New Hampshire, however, Hassan is highly vulnerable depending on the opponent she gets. If it's Sununu, this race changes drastically. This is a state that can swing double digits in 2 years pretty easily. But she starts out with a small advantage as an incumbent in a state that leans towards her party. ~70% chance it stays Dem
5. Georgia (Lean R): This rating assumes Loeffler wins since that is my prediction right now. If not, I will change it to toss-up but tilt R. Definitely a toss-up otherwise but Republicans should be able to win narrowly in an R-leaning environment, even Loefller who is subpar. It just remains to be seen if the trends can overpower the environment. I lean towards no, as usually the opposition party claws back with some previous defections in favorable midterms. ~70% chance it stays GOP.
6. North Carolina (Lean R): Burr retiring is actually good for the party but the candidate could be anybody. But, anybody should be able to keep or outperform the margins done by Republicans in 2020. ~75% chance it stays GOP
7. Wisconsin (Lean R): It remains to be determined if Johnson runs for re-election, but assuming he does he should be able to win on the environment alone. He's polarizing and "controversial" but he's won before when he was declared dead against the rerun of Feingold and should be able to win considering Republicans already won the congressional vote by 3% in 2020. ~80% chance it stays GOP.
8. Alaska (Likely R): There is a good chance of silly nonsense happening with Murkowski in her primary, as it always seems to happen, but there is a minimal chance that it has enough positive impact for Democrats in the general. But the state has been trending Democratic. ~90% chance it stays GOP.
9. Florida (Likely R): Rubio already overperformed for a Republican in 2016 against a 'rising star' opponent. He should have no problem winning easily in 2020 with the trends of the last few cycles. ~95% chance it stays GOP
10. Colorado (Likely D): In what would've been a competitive race cycles ago, Colorado posted the 2nd strongest Dem swing of any state in 2020, and is one of the most college-educated states in the nation. It flipping is now a longshot that can only be done if absolutely everything goes right for Republicans. Bennet should be able to do better than he did even in 2016. ~95% chance it stays Dem
Everything else is safe, or if it does become non-safe it'll be very likely. It'll be interesting to look back and see how accurate this assessment is. I've looked back at my early 2018 guesses and they were okay but had some glaring misses (like Heitkamp easily winning in early 2017). I think these should be more accurate as these senate elections have become all too predictable.
Xing:
Senate:
Safe D: CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, MD, NY, OR, VT, WA
Likely D: None
Lean D: NV
Toss-Up: AZ, PA
Lean R: GA (moves to Toss-Up if Warnock wins), NH (moves to Toss-Up or possibly Lean D if Sununu doesn't run), NC, WI
Likely R: FL
Safe R: AL, AK, AR, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MO, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT
Governor:
Safe D: CA, HI, NY, VA
Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, NM, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NV
Toss-Up: AZ, GA, KS, MI, NH (moves to Safe R if Sununu runs), PA, WI
Lean R: FL
Likely R: AK, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, IA, MA (moves to Likely D if Baker doesn't run) NE, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, VT (moves to Lean D if Scott doesn't run), WY
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