Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A never before heard of group of Russian dissidents calling themselves the "National Republican Army" has claimed credit for the Dugin assassination.  This seems to have convinced everyone that it was a FSB hit.

Car bombs are way more typical of actual partisans or terrorists than of the FSB. There are a million ways the FSB could have vanished Dugin or Dugina that wouldn't have made them and the entire regime look totally inept.  Putin is trying to act like everything under control, his supporters getting blown to smitheroons in Moscow completely undermines his appearance of strength.

Most likely it's a lone wolf or small cell looking for attention (since Dugin is both well known to the West and Ukrainians while being far enough from power to be unprotected), possibly with some sort of support from the SBU. Another possibility is that the "NRA" is an SBU front entirely.

Based on what I've read today, the odds of who killed Dugina

70% FSB
20% Dugin himself
5% NRA
4.95% Ukraine
0.05% Inhuman Transhumanists

So Dugin might have in fact actually sought to arrange a martyrdom for himself?

No, for his daughter

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1561334515490082817

If it was anyone else I'd find the idea crazy. But given this is Dugin we're talking about...

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Besides the fact that the FSB could have easily poisoned or simply abducted Dugin without compromising Putin's image, another point against the FSB theory is that the first person to mention the NRA wasn't some Putinist stooge but Ilya Ponomarev, a notorious pro-Ukrainian twitter troll and ex-Russian politician currently fighting with the TDF.

I guess it's not impossible that Ponomarev is some kind of Manchurian Candidate sent by Putin to promote a false flag attack. But the Ukrainians themselves obviously don't believe that and the simpler explanation is that one of the 12,000,000 Muscovites is an anti-war radical who went out and blew up Dugina's car the same way they've been blowing up rail lines and burning recruiting stations over the past several months.

[MATTROSE94]

Personally, it seems like the war is out of the news cycle, and people are growing numb to it. This is a very bad sign for Western unity, and it shows that World War III is getting more likely (since Russia is now more likely to win the war and then start invading other countries.)

Oh. If they begin the WW3, we will end it, believe me! Russia will not only lose its identity, it would be as if Russia never existed at all.

I think that Russia, China, Iran, and the other Axis of Resistance members combined could easily defeat the US and NATO in a hypothetical World War 3. Such a war would probably last about 3 months at the most. Human wave attacks (Iran), irregular warfare techniques (Russia and the Axis of Resistance members), and very large numbers of military troops (China and Iran) can take down even the most technologically advanced military forces.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561666285041336324

[The Dowager Mod]

The Manifesto.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1561682524597796867

[EastAnglianLefty]

Personally, it seems like the war is out of the news cycle, and people are growing numb to it. This is a very bad sign for Western unity, and it shows that World War III is getting more likely (since Russia is now more likely to win the war and then start invading other countries.)

Oh. If they begin the WW3, we will end it, believe me! Russia will not only lose its identity, it would be as if Russia never existed at all.

I think that Russia, China, Iran, and the other Axis of Resistance members combined could easily defeat the US and NATO in a hypothetical World War 3. Such a war would probably last about 3 months at the most. Human wave attacks (Iran), irregular warfare techniques (Russia and the Axis of Resistance members), and very large numbers of military troops (China and Iran) can take down even the most technologically advanced military forces.

This would have been a dumb take six months ago. At this point it's gone right round and is practically art.

[DINGO Joe]

Personally, it seems like the war is out of the news cycle, and people are growing numb to it. This is a very bad sign for Western unity, and it shows that World War III is getting more likely (since Russia is now more likely to win the war and then start invading other countries.)

Oh. If they begin the WW3, we will end it, believe me! Russia will not only lose its identity, it would be as if Russia never existed at all.

I think that Russia, China, Iran, and the other Axis of Resistance members combined could easily defeat the US and NATO in a hypothetical World War 3. Such a war would probably last about 3 months at the most. Human wave attacks (Iran), irregular warfare techniques (Russia and the Axis of Resistance members), and very large numbers of military troops (China and Iran) can take down even the most technologically advanced military forces.

This would have been a dumb take six months ago. At this point it's gone right round and is practically art.

Does answer the question, "What could possibly be worse than a SnowLabrador take?"

[DINGO Joe]

So, that fast working FSB has identified the Dugina assassin

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1561733431469424645

A Ukrainian who is a card carrying member of Azov who drove around Moscow in a Mini-Cooper and has since fled to Estonia with her 12 year old daughter (or possible midget assassin)

So, it's got it all--Ukraine, Azov, British, Estonians.  Still won't be convinced until FSB produces the Sims cards and Hitler portrait.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561620905809281024?s=20&t=bV2umc...

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/europe-faces-up-to-10-difficult-winters-belgian-premier-warns

"Belgian Prime Minister Warns of 10 ‘Difficult’ Winters for Europe"

Now the solution to decoupling from Russian energy will be 10 years from now?

[jaichind]

PRC source of oil imports skews toward Russia based on discounts at the expense of Middle East providers

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1561767435283451910?s=20&t=wYIOboUoZy...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561766992767483908?s=20&t=wYIObo...

[jaichind]

Liveuamap which seems to adjust maps based on Ukraine MoD announcements seems to have the Russians making advances toward Nikolaev in the Kherson front

8/20


8/22

[jaichind]

India's imports from Russia (Right Hand - Blue) seem to have increased 5 fold while PRC's imports from Russia (Left Hand - White) seem to have increased 2 fold.  So India is the big eater of Russian imports in relative terms.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Liveuamap which seems to adjust maps based on Ukraine MoD announcements seems to have the Russians making advances toward Nikolaev in the Kherson front

8/20


8/22

Liveuamap has been a bit janky and uses other sources, as it should. This was a correction rather than an advance - if you look at other maps such as those of defmon3 and deepstatemap, you can see that liveuamap merely brought its map (roughly) into line with the lines which have been on their maps for months.

[jaichind]

Liveuamap has been a bit janky and uses other sources, as it should. This was a correction rather than an advance - if you look at other maps such as those of defmon3 and deepstatemap, you can see that liveuamap merely brought its map (roughly) into line with the lines which have been on their maps for months.

That could very well be but it does seem to jive with Ukrainian sources

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3554902-in-mykolaiv-direction-enemy-conducting-offensive-battle-gaining-partial-success.html

"In the Mykolaiv direction, Russian forces are conducting an offensive battle, with partial success, in the direction of Vasylky-Blahodatne, having occupied the southern outskirts of Blahodatne, hostilities continue."

Where even Ukrainian sources say the Russians have partial success in an offensive in the region.  I totally agree that it is possible the scale of the advance is exaggerated in the maps since the old version might have underestimated the old Russian position.   After all  liveuamap  is merely the map the Ukraine high command wants the public to view where the front is with a clear need to not lose credibility along the way.

[Omega21]

Kyiv admits 9000 KIA

We can then likely assume the real losses are at least in 15,000-20,000 range.

Unfortunately not really a surprise, the Russians are churning through an ungodly amount of artillery shells. It might not translate into teritorry, but it almost always translates into losses.

Kyiv rarely comments on its own losses in the war. Now army chief Valeriy Saluschny speaks of "almost 9000 killed heroes".

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/ukraine-seit-kriegsbeginn-fast-9000-soldaten-gefallen-18261142.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/europe-faces-up-to-10-difficult-winters-belgian-premier-warns

"Belgian Prime Minister Warns of 10 ‘Difficult’ Winters for Europe"

Now the solution to decoupling from Russian energy will be 10 years from now?

Would it be overdramatic to call this period "The deindustrialization of Europe"?

Also just in:

DIW President Fratzscher warns of a permanent loss of prosperity

BERLIN (dpa-AFX) - The President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Marcel Fratzscher, sees Germany facing a long dry spell in view of rapidly rising prices and a collapse in consumer sentiment. The "price shock" is causing a permanent loss of prosperity in large parts of the population, Fratzscher told the "Spiegel". The bottom 40 percent of society is particularly affected, who spend almost their entire income on their livelihood and hardly save anything. "You will consume everything that is not absolutely essential in the future much more hesitantly or not at all," said the economist.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/diw-praesident-fratzscher-warnt-vor-permanentem-wohlstandsverlust-11646868

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561666285041336324

With the size of the explosion on the bridge, this makes sense:

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1561720969630289925?s=20&t=NjpVBAkVH...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Liveuamap has been a bit janky and uses other sources, as it should. This was a correction rather than an advance - if you look at other maps such as those of defmon3 and deepstatemap, you can see that liveuamap merely brought its map (roughly) into line with the lines which have been on their maps for months.

That could very well be but it does seem to jive with Ukrainian sources

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3554902-in-mykolaiv-direction-enemy-conducting-offensive-battle-gaining-partial-success.html

"In the Mykolaiv direction, Russian forces are conducting an offensive battle, with partial success, in the direction of Vasylky-Blahodatne, having occupied the southern outskirts of Blahodatne, hostilities continue."

Where even Ukrainian sources say the Russians have partial success in an offensive in the region.  I totally agree that it is possible the scale of the advance is exaggerated in the maps since the old version might have underestimated the old Russian position.   After all  liveuamap  is merely the map the Ukraine high command wants the public to view where the front is with a clear need to not lose credibility along the way.

Liveuamap is an open source project and they do maps for other conflicts, too - they're not directly controlled by the Ukrainian General Staff, as far as I know. I say they've always been a bit janky due to experience looking at these maps in the past (e.g. the Syrian conflict). They aren't terrible but they struggle a bit with quality control and there are a lot of unnaturally straight lines of control which don't typically reflect the geography they're approximating.

DefMon3 estimates Blahodatne is indeed contested, and he (along with other sources) have long shown the other areas as under Russian control. Loss of up to half a village does not jive with claims of suddenly losing 20+ in what would be the fastest Russian advance since the first phase of the war. The most likely reason for liveuamap's changes is that, while updating their mapping around Blahodatne, they revised their maps in nearby areas and made corrections there, too.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1561792835241889792?s=20&t=NjpVBAk...

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1561792835241889792?s=20&t=NjpVBAk...

To be fair, Russian air defence equipment is some of the best in the world.

They also have some good cruise missile tech, but fortunately for UA, low stocks of the latest & best versions.

Their failures have much more to do with their terrible, cleptocratic maintenance practices, sub-par logistics, training & organization of the ground forces, coupled with the very inflexible "top down" approach of autocratic militaries of course.

[Badger]

The scary part about the Dugina barbecue is how many Russian/pro-Russian Twitter accounts are now saying things like "It's time to take off the gloves."  I don't know what's more delusional, somehow ignoring what Russia has been doing to Ukrainian children for months, or thinking that Russia would stand a chance in any sort of confrontation with NATO.

You really need to post more often.

[Omega21]

Bulgaria says talks to resume Russian gas supplies are 'inevitable'

SOFIA, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Bulgaria's interim energy minister said it was "inevitable" that the Balkan country would discuss resuming gas deliveries with Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) that were halted in April, after the government promised to secure adequate supplies for the winter.

"Given the demands of business and the trade unions, in reality, talks with Gazprom to renew supplies are inevitable," Hristov told reporters.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/bulgaria-says-talks-needed-resume-russian-gas-supplies-2022-08-22/

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/europe-faces-up-to-10-difficult-winters-belgian-premier-warns

"Belgian Prime Minister Warns of 10 ‘Difficult’ Winters for Europe"

Now the solution to decoupling from Russian energy will be 10 years from now?

Fully reorienting Europe's energy policy is going to be the affair of a decade, sure (even 2 or 3 decades if we're talking about decarbonization). But with regards to weening ourselves off Russia, the pain is largely frontloaded. Ceteris paribus, every winter after this coming one it will be a bit easier than the previous one, as new supply routes are set up and energy prices reach a new equilibrium. Of course there are a lot of unknowns in this process, but if you're relying on Europe "cracking", you'd better hope to see concrete signs of it very soon, or it will become less and less likely.

[Person Man]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/europe-faces-up-to-10-difficult-winters-belgian-premier-warns

"Belgian Prime Minister Warns of 10 ‘Difficult’ Winters for Europe"

Now the solution to decoupling from Russian energy will be 10 years from now?

Fully reorienting Europe's energy policy is going to be the affair of a decade, sure (even 2 or 3 decades if we're talking about decarbonization). But with regards to weening ourselves off Russia, the pain is largely frontloaded. Ceteris paribus, every winter after this coming one it will be a bit easier than the previous one, as new supply routes are set up and energy prices reach a new equilibrium. Of course there are a lot of unknowns in this process, but if you're relying on Europe "cracking", you'd better hope to see concrete signs of it very soon, or it will become less and less likely.

Their freedom depends on them enduring a few cold winters.