Gallup Daily Tracking Poll Thread

[Person Man]

How sad. With numbers like those we deserve to lose in November.

Seriously. Why even have a democratic party if democrats don't even vote democratic?

[Person Man]

Barack Obama 48.5%,  257 EVs
John McCain    50.5%. 281 EVs

Swing States

Nevada 51.5-47.5
Colorado 51-48
New Mexico 52-47
Wisconsin 49.9-49.1
Minnesota 52-47
Iowa 50-49
Missouri 43-56
Michigan 49.9-48.9
Pennsylvania 48-51
Ohio 46-53
Florida 45-54
New Hampshire 50-49

[Person Man]

Barack Obama 48.5%,  257 EVs
John McCain    50.5%. 281 EVs

Swing States

Nevada 51.5-47.5
Colorado 51-48
New Mexico 52-47
Wisconsin 49.9-49.1
Minnesota 52-47
Iowa 50-49
Missouri 43-56
Michigan 49.9-48.9
Pennsylvania 48-51
Ohio 46-53
Florida 45-54
New Hampshire 50-49

That your call if 1) an election were held now and 2) on the basis of Gallup?

Dave

"yes".
...and

Virginia is 48-51.
North Carolina will be 46-53.

[Person Man]

Well, these numbers are encouraging if the Dems are this split and are still one point behind McCain. This means that if the dems run even an average campaign this year, they should win...this is of course thinking that 95% of those in the dem primaries would still vote for the generic dem and that most of the 15% that will leave the party if their nominee is not chosen can be convinced to come back. I think if the dems can get back 40% of those voters which constitute 5% of the electorate, the dems will win. If they can't do that and if they lose this election, the democrats will officially be the permanent, crisis-proof minority, regardless of how well they do in Congress. At that point it won't be unreasonable that many Dem leaders would consider a new way foward.

[Person Man]

something feels a miss...

[Person Man]

Obama finally caught McCain.

[Person Man]

Yeah. Let's see what happens. Next week will tell if this is statistical noise or Obamentum.

[Person Man]

Looks like Barrack is still tied.

[Person Man]

I wonder if this is still statistical noise...

[Person Man]

At this point, still noise.

It has been going on for a week. Unless, you can show me a scientific model, I would say this a pretty good indicator, unless of course, the Rassy non-sense is noise too... I mean, How can Obama be swept by ten points and still keep us up at night with North Carolina.

[Person Man]

It looks like "small town gate" is having a devastating impact.

I, for one, see no way for him to recover

Too early to tell what the political fallout is let alone whether it will be lasting but I pray for all our sakes Obama does recover from this

Dave

...if he even will need to...

[Person Man]

Could it also be changes in communication and demography that they are not picking up?

[Person Man]

I'm enjoying Obama's "bittergate" bump. I guess people are finally getting tired of MSM insulting their intelligence.

No sh**t.