New Jersey: Can the GOP win it in 2012?

[Dgov]

It depends alot on Christie actually.  So far the man has been running the state pretty well, and pretty conservatively too.  If in 2012 Christie has helped turn the state around, they I'd bet it flips GOP sooner than a straight 2008-vote-percentage would indicate.

The biggest reason why Christie might have a bigger impact than other governors, is because he's governing like a Conservative rather than just a Republican in a Blue state.  Douglas in VT or Lingle in HI didn't really strive to change the political direction of their states in that they both governed like Moderate/Liberal Republicans.

To summarize in a line--yes, because Christie's New Jersey is probably going to be the model for how a 2012 Republican is going to try running the country.

[Dgov]

What are his current approvals there? I know Christie's are in the 30s.

Um, no, Christie is currently in the mid-50s.  If he was in the 30s, he'd be a lame-duck already