Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[CascadianIndy]

Wroth noting that in the 338canada federal simulator (not the most accurate thing considering you can't input provincial crosstabs), if you give the PPC just 2.8%, Bernier wins Beauce, not to mention how the seat's now a tossup and he's only 1.5% behind the Tory candidate for the seat!


With the wonky AR provincial breakdowns (18% for Other in Alberta and 16% in Saskatchewan, I feel like we might be underestimating the PPC/Mavs a bit here, along with the CPC. Maybe the non-response bias issue from the US carried over here as well? Just my two cents.

[CascadianIndy]

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2021/07/political-landscape-on-verge-of-potential-election/

New EKOS poll didn't show the NDP at 2nd place result that Frank Graves rumoured could happen on Twitter, but does show other interesting things.

Topline:
LPC 35.2
CPC 27.7
NDP 18.5
GPC 5.2
BQ 5.6
PPC 4.5

Most notable is the PPC leapfrogging the Bloc and the Greens in support. The Bloc number is probably an outlier, but I can absolutely buy the PPC getting more votes than the Greens in the next election, even if they win zero ridings.

[CascadianIndy]

New polls from Angus Reid and Mainstreet Research, both of which show the mythical poll tightening.
https://angusreid.org/federal-leaders-ability-favourability/

AR:

LPC: 33%
CPC: 30%
NDP: 21%
BQ: 7%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 3%

Mainstreet:

LPC: 34%
CPC: 32%
NDP: 16%
GPC: 5%
BQ: 5%



Personally, I expect the results of the election to be around the numbers in the AR poll.

[CascadianIndy]

New Leger poll is out! Despite the healthy 7-point lead on the surface, the crosstabs are a little weird with the Tories apparently only 5 points behind the Liberals in Ontario? Regardless, here's the topline:

LPC 36
CPC 29
NDP 20
BQC 7
GPC 4
PPC 3

Jamming those numbers into 338canada's federal simulator gets you a Lib majority of 8, while it's even closer with TCTC showing the Liberals barely making it at 175/338.

Link to the full results are here if anybody would like to peruse them!

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Legers-North-American-Tracker-August-2nd-2021_v2.pdf

[CascadianIndy]

Two new polls today, one from Angus Reid and another from Abacus. While the two might look somewhat normal in comparison to recent polls in the past few weeks, the Abacus regionals are explosive.

Regardless, here are the toplines!

AR:

LPC 35
CPC 30
NDP 19
BQ 7
GPC 3
PPC 3

Abacus:
LPC 37
CPC 25
NDP 20
BQ 8
GPC 6
PPC 2

Both of these have a Liberal majority, albeit being a slim one. What's really eye-popping are the Abacus regionals in the Prairies.

Saskytoba:
CPC 35
LPC 31
NDP 22

Alberta
CPC 38
NDP 29
LPC 22

I'm not sure what drugs Abacus was on, but I want some of them. These numbers would have the NDP breaking through in Edmonton, gaining Griesbach, Manning, Riverbend, and West. Notley is carrying so much water for the feds I'm shocked her back hasn't broken yet.

[CascadianIndy]

In some other news, Elections Canada has finally released the shapefiles and related data for the boundaries of both advance polls and polling districts.

2021 Canadian Riding Boundaries Resources Link: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/47a0f098-7445-41bb-a147-41686b692887


2021 Canadian Advanced Poll Boundaries Resources Link: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/34a8484d-5a00-4e34-a235-75881141385e

2021 Canadian Polling Districts Resources Link: https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/0ed37cd6-d831-4183-bf43-b05e29570298

[CascadianIndy]

At this rate though, I wouldn't be surprised if BC United is totally annihilated come next election.

Oh yeah BCU is toast. At best they'll hang around as a minor party for well-off Vancouverites who are too rich to vote NDP but too "woke" to vote Conservative. You know, the mythical "fiscally conservative, socially progressive" voter.

I don't know about that. Small subsamples, but the Angus Reid poll that came out in February showed B.C United in second place in the Interior/North behind the NDP with the B.C Conservatives a fairly distant third. 10 of the 16 B.C United MLAs who are running again are in the Interior/North including well known and generally well liked/well respected MLAs like Shirley Bond, Mike Bernier, Peter Milobar and Todd Stone.

For what it's worth, that was a misprint - the BC Conservatives are still in a solid second place in the Interior. It's only a slight drop for them and a slight rise for the NDP (from 35 to 32 for the former, and from 37 to 42 for the latter).

Still want to hear how you think BC United's incumbents will make a difference though out there - I'm not too familiar with that neck of the woods.

[CascadianIndy]

For what it's worth, here's where I think the state of the race is right now: https://twitter.com/Cadeyrnn/status/1770856146443583745?t=6xsnPySW7NXbxu_McbRK7A...