The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[GaussLaw]

How is 25% enough?

I'm not doubting you Miles as you seem like an NC/LA expert, but how do you know if the votes in are representative enough of the other 75%?

[GaussLaw]

Also, New Hanover (Wilmington) is almost all out.

How is 25% enough?

I'm not doubting you Miles as you seem like an NC/LA expert, but how do you know if the votes in are representative enough of the other 75%?

Huh?

Never mind since AP called it, but I was just wondering how people are able to tell with 25% of the results in whether a victory is guaranteed.

[GaussLaw]

I wonder what a Purdue vs. Kingston runoff will look like. I'd imagine Purdue will be slamming Kingston as a Washington insider, but what will Kingston's strategy be?

Kingston could run as the traditional conservative Southerner in the race, but that probably wouldn't help him make inroads in North Georgia.

Simple:

"David Perude is a big-government liberal who wants to raise taxes(he said that revenue had to go up) and supports Obama's Common Core Agenda.  Don't let a liberal multimillionaire take Georgia's US Senate seat.  Instead, choose conservative Jack Kingston, ranked as the most conservative candidate by the National Journal."

EDIT:  Note in reality Perdue = Kingston on policy.  But Kingston's attacks on Perdue will be the same that they were before the runoff.

[GaussLaw]

This is relieving......

It's pretty amazing how distinct different regions of Mississippi are and their characteristics/voting.

If you ask an average person about Mississippi, they'd probably think it was just 1 big trailer park essentially.

[GaussLaw]

Guys, looking at the county map it appears that the area right North of Mississippi's coastal counties is uber-pro-McDaniel.  According to region maps this is still considered the "coastal" region of Mississippi, so why is Cochran (and other establishment GOPers) so weak here?

[GaussLaw]

Guys, looking at the county map it appears that the area right North of Mississippi's coastal counties is uber-pro-McDaniel.  According to region maps this is still considered the "coastal" region of Mississippi, so why is Cochran (and other establishment GOPers) so weak here?

I've always considered these places more like the Pine Belt than the Coast.  It makes sense to me that McDaniel would post large margins here. 

Most populous county in the north with still no results is Pontotoc, which should post a pretty solid margin for Cochran - he was born there. 

That's the odd thing though; it appears that Cochran's doing fine in the pine belt based on the region maps I see since the map looks like Pine Belt begins around Jasper County and goes North, and Cochran dominates the central to northern region of the Pine Belt.  Gingrich, the "anti-establishment" 2014 candidate, also did really well in Southern Pine Belt/Northern coastal region, but not in central to northern pine belt.  Is there a reason for this "redneck rectangle"(in jest) of green counties on the NYT map? I get McDaniel lives there, but the pattern seems to have lasted longer than that.

[GaussLaw]

Here's what I don't get about Ernst.

How did she manage to get both massive tea party support and massive establishment (US Chamber of Commerce + Marco Rubio) support?  Are castration ads really that effective to GOP donors?

[GaussLaw]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

Pray for Rankin

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I actually feel sorry for Cochran. First the whole scandal, now a decades-old career possibly coming to an end.

I have little sympathy for him. I line up with Cochran somewhat more so than McDaniel, but if he wanted to hold on to his seat without the fight that he is in right now, he should have been more proactive. He seemed to lack understanding of the Tea Party before McDaniel showed up as a threat.

Yeah, Cochran saying he didn't know much about the tea party and his Obamacare is awesome gaffe may have cost him the election.

Why, redneck rectangle, why? (the area from George to Smith County) 

Ugh

Cochran did well in the delta; he did well in the coast.  He did well in NE Mississippi.  His only real weak spots are NW Mississippi and the Redneck Rectangle.  But thanks to Jones County's crazy turnout, that might be enough for McDaniel.

[GaussLaw]

This is insane.

There will probably be more total votes in JONES COUNTY than Hinds in Mississippi, home to the biggest city in the state.

Un-freaking-believable.

[GaussLaw]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Musgrove only ran 2 points ahead of Obama in 2008.  I'm not holding my breath for a Childers win.

[GaussLaw]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Musgrove only ran 2 points ahead of Obama in 2008.  I'm not holding my breath for a Childers win.

And Childers ran, what, 25?, points ahead of Obama in 2008?

Fair point, but Childers sure didn't do well in 2010, and I don't see him going to 2008 levels.  Also, Senate elections are easier to nationalize than House races.  After all, MS Senate races became GOP long before MS House.

[GaussLaw]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

Well, it is possible that both Akin and Mourdock could have won in Mississippi. That wouldn't be a good thing by any stretch, but still, it could happen...

Mourdock would easily have won Mississippi since he only lost Indiana by 6.

Akin, not so much.........

[GaussLaw]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

Well, it is possible that both Akin and Mourdock could have won in Mississippi. That wouldn't be a good thing by any stretch, but still, it could happen...

Mourdock would easily have won Mississippi since he only lost Indiana by 6.

Akin, not so much.........

Mississippi was only about 1 point more Republican than Indiana in 2012.

(And now I'm done playing devil's advocate. I realize Childers has a tough road ahead. But McDaniel will definitely make another major gaffe or 2, and this photo scandal's not going away.)

But when you account for elasticity differences, the difference expands.  Also, midterm turnout in MS vs. Presidential turnout for Indiana.  That easily makes up the 5 point difference(as MS is 1 point mroe GOP).  Also, the % of people who identify as conservative is among the nation's highest in MS, not so in Indiana.  

I agree, 2 gaffes and McDaniel's finished.  

But now, he'd win by 8-10 points I think.

EDIT:  I see what you're saying though.  Dems should invest money here just so the GOP has to as well.  But this is no better than an OR-SEN for Republicans.

[GaussLaw]

I wonder if conservatives will now cite Jones County as a reason for the GOP to move further to the right by saying something about how being crazy will unlock all the "missing" white voters or something

(It's a crazy argument, I know, but I could see it given how huge that turnout was)

[GaussLaw]

If it goes to a runoff, will Dems/indies be able to vote in it?

Not if we didn't vote in it today. I voted in the Democratic primary today for Childers, so I won't be able to vote in the runoff.

Voting in the primary is a prerequisite to voting in the runoff?

What?

[GaussLaw]

Could Thad win the runoff?

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AP gives Palazzo the check.

Pro-Cochran groups are considering whether to dial back. Henry Barbour suggesting they'll try attacking the outside groups supporting McDaniel.

They need to be putting more resources into the primary, not fewer.  A divisive primary is much easier to recover from than having a dreadful candidate like "Mamacita" McDaniel.

But McDaniel seems inevitable, so for the GOP, they're best off getting used to it.

[GaussLaw]

AOSHQHDD has another call for Amash. He's hovering at 56-57%.

Glorious news.

[GaussLaw]

Wolf is doing quite well in Johnson County.

Perhaps suburban Republicans aren't always more moderate than rural ones.  Saw the same pattern in Idaho-GOV.