2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A little confused by 390; what are the western and eastern borders [qm]

[minionofmidas]

A little confused by 390; what are the western and eastern borders [qm]

Meh. It's what happens when they feel they need to split a Stadtbezirk into two postal precincts, and there isn't a ready split. And the one they settle on is still noticeably suboptimal. And the Stadtbezirk in question contains lots of industrial and agricultural and recreational land as well as an overgrown ex-village.
Still enables us to provide exact results for slightly smaller units, but we don't gain much as a result... in this case, lumping some territory at the north (geographic north. Feels like northeast on the ground, of course, as you think of Wilhelmshöher, the main artery, as a east-west road...) and some in the east, and that weird little block of residential country away from the main part of Seckbach near the Unfallklinik. It hardly matters how you draw the boundary exactly once that idea is understood.

No but seriously, towards the east Wilhelmshöher continues to the Bergen boundary, so your confusion confuses me*. Towards the west just draw a continuation of Arolser. That's not quite there, but nobody cares, I think.

*Ah, I see. Hits Vilbeler just barely on Seckbach land. Just from visual memory, I think the precinct boundary continues southward on Vilbeler. Not that it matters. You'll meet similar problems in Bergen-Enkheim... the official precinct map doesn't actually show that northeastern rural country at all! Though you can guess what precinct farms out there must be voting in. Anyways, you'll need to sort of extend Riedstraße eastward. That's what it looks like on the precinct map, too. Again, not that anyone lives there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sort of like this then [qm]

[minionofmidas]

(slaps head)

I just understood the source of the confusion - it's either with the confusing way Hofhaus and Auerfeld are marked on the online map, or with the confusing way they're marked on the printed precinct map I used, or just my stupidity. I'd need to check that printed map again to tell which, although I *think* it's the first of these.

This will perfectly do, of course, but the border's a little messed-up in the center.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This will perfectly do, of course, but the border's a little messed-up in the center.

Which way should I nudge it?

[minionofmidas]

This will perfectly do, of course, but the border's a little messed-up in the center.

Which way should I nudge it?

That eastern continuation of Auerfeld, see that? That's part of Hofhaus, not of Auerfeld (or possibly I just wrote the description under that mistaken assumption). And that's all I was referring to when I wrote of "Hofhaus", ie west of that Auerfeld should be the line.
In other words, the darker areas northwestern hump needs to be much flatter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Testing for errors, to an extent. Turnout map next. Will probably do two seats of party maps; left and right.

[minionofmidas]

RIP Mr Hazell. No errors of any kind that I can spot without checking, though I think you meant "sets", not "seats". The very light shades of green and blue are hard to tell apart, though.

[minionofmidas]

Greens just selected their list for the Euro's this weekend.

Ex-MP Werner Schulz surprisingly secures the No. 8 spot. Good man that, Schulz.

 

In the 1998 campaign, Greens were hurt by a bold Parteitag call for a massive increase in petrol taxes that was summarized by the media as "5 Marks per litre of petrol". When it looked as if Schulz had narrowly lost his seat (second place on the Saxony state list) as a result - he pulled through in the end - Schulz joked "now I call for 5 litres of wine per Mark!"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks oddly like an older, sans glasses, version of my Dad.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some of the patterns there are... to use a word used earlier... stark...

[minionofmidas]

Some of the patterns there are... to use a word used earlier... stark...

Of course, 2008's are only slightly less so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's behind the really stark division in Unterliederbach though [qm]. Oh, and is the very high turnout area in the Ostend a yuppy colony or something [qm]

[minionofmidas]

What's behind the really stark division in Unterliederbach though [qm].

Estateland (though the older, northern part of it is nice-ish) vs the posh part of Höchst, basically. Although I don't know the western side of Unterliederbach nearly well enough to comment really.

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Nope. Got some pretty old money overlooking the Ostpark there. The area, or rather much of it (and a couple of streets east of it, too. This is country I know quite well, having grown up on the road that divides 282 and 252... though near the western end of that line) is not all that unlike the Holzhausenviertel or the posh bits of the Dornbusch. Except much smaller in area. Should definitely be viewed as a survival, though, rather than a yuppie colony - all over the southern halves of 251 (except the zoo itself, of course) and 252 must have been posh country before the war destroyed much of it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nope. Got some pretty old money overlooking the Ostpark there. The area, or rather much of it (and a couple of streets east of it, too. This is country I know quite well, having grown up on the road that divides 282 and 252... though near the western end of that line) is not all that unlike the Holzhausenviertel or the posh bits of the Dornbusch. Except much smaller in area. Should definitely be viewed as a survival, though, rather than a yuppie colony - all over the southern halves of 251 (except the zoo itself, of course) and 252 must have been posh country before the war destroyed much of it.

Oooh; hadn't thought of that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Keys are the same as for the Frankfurt party maps posted earlier, with one exception; I've added an extra shade for the FDP (28%) and also lowered the 27% shade to 25% in order to make some patterns clearer.

Bigger version in gallery. Work has also just started on the Left maps (up tomorrow, hopefully).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Keys are also the same as on the earlier maps (slightly; SPD 12 extended lower a bit because of one part of Westend).

A bigger version can be found in the Gallery.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks, beautiful!

Now that they're up I feel free to point out the error in the Dornbusch E division that I only noticed when the turnout thing came up. It's my fault, anyhow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now that they're up I feel free to point out the error in the Dornbusch E division that I only noticed when the turnout thing came up. It's my fault, anyhow.

Meh. Oh well.

I might try a left v right map later.

[minionofmidas]

Just read that Germany is switching from Hare-Niemeyer to Sainte-Lague, for both Euros and Federals.

[Hash]

Just read that Germany is switching from Hare-Niemeyer to Sainte-Lague, for both Euros and Federals.

Could that have a large effect on seat allocations in the next elections? Or just a matter of one or two seats more or less for a party?

[minionofmidas]

Just read that Germany is switching from Hare-Niemeyer to Sainte-Lague, for both Euros and Federals.

Could that have a large effect on seat allocations in the next elections? Or just a matter of one or two seats more or less for a party?

The next elections? You mean the Euros? A seat, max. Basically.
The Federal elections? Trickier question. Given that we
first, calculate party's national seat total
then, distribute these seats to the states
then, let parties keep any direct seats beyond the resulting figure, there might be all sorts of weird knock-on effects. I might do the math for the last federal elections.

[minionofmidas]

Anyways, the current procedure has actually been found unconstitutional, but they have until 2011 to fix things. (On a side note, the verdict includes language that leaves no doubt the judges didn't know what they were doing, exactly. Reminds me of Atlasia...)

[minionofmidas]

Lmao. It doesn't change anything at all.

[Tender Branson]

The latest average of federal opinion polls by Emnid, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and GMS:

CDU/CSU: 35.8%
SPD: 24.5%
FDP: 15.3%
Left: 10.5%
Greens: 10.5%
Others: 3.4%

Majority for CDU/CSU/FDP.