MN (MinnPost/Change Research): Biden +5

[TheLaRocca]

lol I told you all the Midwest would be closer then you think.

Arizona will vote to the left of Minnesota.

[TheLaRocca]

lol I told you all the Midwest would be closer then you think.

Arizona will vote to the left of Minnesota.

Garbage take. If Biden wins MN by 5 he's losing AZ. I doubt he wins MN by just 5 though.

lol no.

Arizona has vastly more favorable demographics. They voted like 5% apart in 2016 and since then AZ has only trended left well Minnesota has only trended right.

Minnesota was 2% to the left of Michigan. I have no clue were the hell “Minnesota is as liberal as Rhode Island” is coming from

[TheLaRocca]

lol I told you all the Midwest would be closer then you think.

Arizona will vote to the left of Minnesota.

Garbage take. If Biden wins MN by 5 he's losing AZ. I doubt he wins MN by just 5 though.

lol no.

Arizona has vastly more favorable demographics. They voted like 5% apart in 2016 and since then AZ has only trended left well Minnesota has only trended right.

Minnesota was 2% to the left of Michigan. I have no clue were the hell “Minnesota is as liberal as Rhode Island” is coming from

Who said MN is as liberal as RI? I think I'll go with the state that elected Dems to every statewide office in 2016 by very decent margins being more likely to vote further left than AZ.

The old “Walter Mondale won the state so NO Republican can win it” routine.

Seem to remember democrats sweeping MN in 2014 and almost losing it in 2016

[TheLaRocca]

So much energy exhausted over a Change Research poll. Edit: doomers are better off zeroing in on the IBD/TIPP tracker which is far less junky than this survey.

IBD had Romney and trump winning the PV lol. And at this time had the GOP slightly behind in the midterms tho they did shift left at the end.

This poll is fine.

[TheLaRocca]

First off, this is Change research, which is a bit iffy at best

Either way, Biden is doing 3% better than Clinton according to this poll, which has been one of his less great polls in the state. If MI, WI, and PA were to also shift just 3%, or even just 1% to the left, assuming everything else stays the same as 2016, Biden wins.

Yeah I don't get why people can't understand this lol.

[TheLaRocca]

I am in Minnesota and I can tell you it will be close.   Certainly within 5 points.   

Biden has the edge with the Twin Cities metro and Trump would have to eat into those margins to have a chance of actually winning.

My guess is Biden ends up taking MN by 3-4 points but a Trump surge is not completely out of the question.

I've said 51-47 or 51-46 Biden for like a year on Minnesota. I expect it to vote 3-4% to the right of the nation.

[TheLaRocca]

Calm down everyone, Biden will win between seven and nine points here at least. Smith too should perform relatively similarly.

lol no