MN (MinnPost/Change Research): Biden +5

[VAR]

1021 LV, MoE: 3.1%

Biden 49%
Trump 44%

Favorabilities:
Biden: 46/50 (-4)
Trump: 44/53 (-9)

https://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2020/10/minnpost-poll-finds-close-race-between-biden-and-trump-in-minnesota/

[redjohn]

Not sure how this pollster is rated, but this is much closer than I'd like to see.

[EJ24]

Biden will win Minnesota by 7-10%.

[redjohn]

Biden will win Minnesota by 7-10%.

If he's winning nationally, yes. Biden+5 would be a very poor margin. I've expected him to win by 8 or more.

[TheLaRocca]

lol I told you all the Midwest would be closer then you think.

Arizona will vote to the left of Minnesota.

[redjohn]

lol I told you all the Midwest would be closer then you think.

Arizona will vote to the left of Minnesota.

Garbage take. If Biden wins MN by 5 he's losing AZ. I doubt he wins MN by just 5 though.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s Zoloft time.

[Dumbo]

Obama / Romney  2012
RCP average was Obama + 5,2

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not sure how this pollster is rated, but this is much closer than I'd like to see.

Change Research is not a very good pollster; 538 rates them as C-.  They tend to be all over the place.

[MillennialModerate]

Not sure how this pollster is rated, but this is much closer than I'd like to see.

C- (538)

[TheLaRocca]

lol I told you all the Midwest would be closer then you think.

Arizona will vote to the left of Minnesota.

Garbage take. If Biden wins MN by 5 he's losing AZ. I doubt he wins MN by just 5 though.

lol no.

Arizona has vastly more favorable demographics. They voted like 5% apart in 2016 and since then AZ has only trended left well Minnesota has only trended right.

Minnesota was 2% to the left of Michigan. I have no clue were the hell “Minnesota is as liberal as Rhode Island” is coming from

[Gass3268]

Not sure how this pollster is rated, but this is much closer than I'd like to see.

Change Research is cheap so a lot of groups with not a ton of money use them for their polling.

[redjohn]

lol I told you all the Midwest would be closer then you think.

Arizona will vote to the left of Minnesota.

Garbage take. If Biden wins MN by 5 he's losing AZ. I doubt he wins MN by just 5 though.

lol no.

Arizona has vastly more favorable demographics. They voted like 5% apart in 2016 and since then AZ has only trended left well Minnesota has only trended right.

Minnesota was 2% to the left of Michigan. I have no clue were the hell “Minnesota is as liberal as Rhode Island” is coming from

Who said MN is as liberal as RI? I think I'll go with the state that elected Dems to every statewide office in 2016 by very decent margins being more likely to vote further left than AZ.

[Ljube]

Not sure how this pollster is rated, but this is much closer than I'd like to see.

Change Research is not a very good pollster; 538 rates them as C-.  They tend to be all over the place.

Yes, terrible pollster.

What would help us more to estimate the state of the race in Minnesota is a poll of Duluth (8th congressional district).

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The midwest is going to trend R this election, but Biden is still going to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I am not sure how Ohio and Iowa will turn out. Midwesterners seem to love Trump's tough guy persona.

[forza nocta]

Do we know the dates for this?

[Eraserhead]

I'm pretty sure Change Research isn't even a real pollster.

They're also Democratic hacks so no idea why they spit these numbers out though.

[Buzz]

Obama / Romney  2012
RCP average was Obama + 5,2

What exactly does that have to do with this?  Trump was down by a larger amount in the average and only lost the state by a little over a point.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

The polls today are all over the place. Probably a better sign (for the integrity of the polls themselves if nothing else) than herding would be.

[Gass3268]

I'm pretty sure Change Research isn't even a real pollster.

They're also Democratic hacks so no idea why they spit these numbers out though.

They are real, but they use online ad clicks to get respondents.

[It’s so Joever]

The midwest is going to trend R this election, but Biden is still going to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I am not sure how Ohio and Iowa will turn out. Midwesterners seem to love Trump's tough guy persona.

We should be tough guy on them and end their subsidies.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

The midwest is going to trend R this election, but Biden is still going to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I am not sure how Ohio and Iowa will turn out. Midwesterners seem to love Trump's tough guy persona.

We should be tough guy on them and end their subsidies.

That's a great idea! Let's use national policy to punish states that are trending away from us and still have a lot of electoral votes and competitive House districts! Surely that'll bring those rubes back into the fold!

Seriously, shut up.

[It’s so Joever]

The midwest is going to trend R this election, but Biden is still going to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I am not sure how Ohio and Iowa will turn out. Midwesterners seem to love Trump's tough guy persona.

We should be tough guy on them and end their subsidies.

That's a great idea! Let's use national policy to punish states that are trending away from us and still have a lot of electoral votes and competitive House districts! Surely that'll bring those rubes back into the fold!

Seriously, shut up.

I really should have put /s at the end.

[TheLaRocca]

lol I told you all the Midwest would be closer then you think.

Arizona will vote to the left of Minnesota.

Garbage take. If Biden wins MN by 5 he's losing AZ. I doubt he wins MN by just 5 though.

lol no.

Arizona has vastly more favorable demographics. They voted like 5% apart in 2016 and since then AZ has only trended left well Minnesota has only trended right.

Minnesota was 2% to the left of Michigan. I have no clue were the hell “Minnesota is as liberal as Rhode Island” is coming from

Who said MN is as liberal as RI? I think I'll go with the state that elected Dems to every statewide office in 2016 by very decent margins being more likely to vote further left than AZ.

The old “Walter Mondale won the state so NO Republican can win it” routine.

Seem to remember democrats sweeping MN in 2014 and almost losing it in 2016

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So much energy exhausted over a Change Research poll. Edit: doomers are better off zeroing in on the IBD/TIPP tracker which is far less junky than this survey.