Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

Overall, President Trump continues to enjoy a positive approval in the Sunshine state at 45% and 43% disapproval. He continues to be very popular in the GOP with a 66 percentage point lead in a potential primary against two Republican rivals, Trump garners 80% of the vote (n=488, +/-4.4 %).

(But he loses to everyone but Biden, whom he ties. At this point he needs more than 45% approval in Florida  to win it. As usual I give the caveat: The Florida Republican Party can practically ensure that the state goes to Trump if it is the deciding state in a federal election (Presidency 2000, perhaps the Senate race in 2018), so Florida will not decide the election for a Democrat. Wisconsin, Iowa, or perhaps Arizona will, in which case Florida will go with the winner).  

In view of the criteria that I had of deciding that a tie or a near-tie in approval is offset if Trump is winning or tied against everyone, I treat this as barely advantageous for the Democrat. I am trying to predict the result of the election.  

Trump job performance: 48% approve of how he is doing as prez, 49% disapprove. In Dec, it was 47% approve, 50% disapprove. In Jan 2019, it was 44% approve, 52% disapprove. #mulawpoll

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Civiqs, Jan. 11-14, 1464 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Remove Trump?  Yes 49 (-1), No 48 (+1)

2020: Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 44 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

Civiqs, Jan. 11-14, 1464 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Remove Trump?  Yes 49 (-1), No 48 (+1)

2020: Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 44 (nc)

For someone who has the usual advantage of incumbency (four of the last five incumbent Presidents were re-elected) he has much else going badly for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nice visualization:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1217929031305310216

[Badger]

Nice visualization:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1217929031305310216

God dammit Ohio....

[Inmate Trump]

What is it that Ohioans like about him?

[Pericles]

Nice visualization:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1217929031305310216

In the Electoral College, applying that map(with ME-02 for Trump and NE-02 against him), Trump gets 182 EV to 356 for the Dem. Utah probably doesn’t vote Dem though so 350 EV for the Dem seems like the realistic ceiling, with a lot of close states.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Nice visualization:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1217929031305310216

In the Electoral College, applying that ma(with ME-02 for Trump and NE-02 against him), Trump gets 182 EV to 356 for the Dem. Utah probably doesn’t vote Dem though so 350 EV for the Dem seems like the realistic ceiling, with a lot of close states.

Sounds about right.

It's a pretty high ceiling because it is, of course, important to bear in mind that there is likely a non-negligible sect of those who disapprove of President Trump that will still vote for him. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is an interesting article from 538 regarding an alternative method of measuring Trump's approval.  Instead of simple approval/disapproval, this survey asks whether the respondent views Trump more or less favorably than each of several other Republicans.

Before the midterms, Trump’s favorability rating was statistically indistinguishable from Pence’s, and only Palin was rated less favorably. Following impeachment, Trump was even lower relative to the other Republicans we asked about. Not only is he the least popular president to run for reelection since Gerald Ford according to polls asking the standard presidential approval question, but in our measure, he is now also rated less favorably than his vice president.
...
But the bottom line is that the president appears even more unpopular than previously thought, and more disliked than the standard presidential approval question is able to reveal. Although the electoral implications of Trump’s unpopularity and impeachment remain to be seen, the data we do have isn’t promising for Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is an interesting article from 538 regarding an alternative method of measuring Trump's approval.  Instead of simple approval/disapproval, this survey asks whether the respondent views Trump more or less favorably than each of several other Republicans.

Before the midterms, Trump’s favorability rating was statistically indistinguishable from Pence’s, and only Palin was rated less favorably. Following impeachment, Trump was even lower relative to the other Republicans we asked about. Not only is he the least popular president to run for reelection since Gerald Ford according to polls asking the standard presidential approval question, but in our measure, he is now also rated less favorably than his vice president.
...
But the bottom line is that the president appears even more unpopular than previously thought, and more disliked than the standard presidential approval question is able to reveal. Although the electoral implications of Trump’s unpopularity and impeachment remain to be seen, the data we do have isn’t promising for Trump.

I like what I read there, but as always, I am going to take it with a grain of salt. Penn Quaker Girl's signature seems to have much to spare, which we will all need going through this election year and scrutinizing all of the data it gives us.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

What is it that Ohioans like about him?

Demographics. Ohio has a higher concentration of non-college educated White people and White working class voters (both groups have trended toward the GOP nationwide) and the big cities of Ohio (Columbus, Cleveland & Cincinnati) are not enough to outweigh the rural & exurban areas of Ohio.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What is it that Ohioans like about him?

Demographics. Ohio has a higher concentration of non-college educated White people and White working class voters (both groups have trended toward the GOP nationwide) and the big cities of Ohio (Columbus, Cleveland & Cincinnati) are not enough to outweigh the rural & exurban areas of Ohio.

I'm old enough to remember when Cincinnati was America's right-wing dumping ground. Now it's a model of progress.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Nice visualization:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1217929031305310216

In the Electoral College, applying that map(with ME-02 for Trump and NE-02 against him), Trump gets 182 EV to 356 for the Dem. Utah probably doesn’t vote Dem though so 350 EV for the Dem seems like the realistic ceiling, with a lot of close states.

You could drive all the way from Miami to the Canadian border, and Seattle to Denver without ever leaving a blue state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Jan. 2-15, 1014 adults (1-month change)

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Remove Trump?  Yes 46 (nc), No 51 (nc)

Though public opinion currently tilts against removing Trump from office, more want to see the Senate remove him than wanted the same for Bill Clinton after he was impeached by the House in 1998. In several polls conducted in January and early February 1999, an average of 33% of Americans were in favor of the Senate convicting Clinton and removing him from office, while 63% were opposed.

The president's own party is about as opposed to impeachment for Trump as the Democratic Party was for Clinton; but the opposition party and political independents are more strongly aligned against Trump than they were against Clinton.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia: AJC/UGA, Jan. 6-15, 1025 RV

NOTE: beginning with this poll, UGA is now weighting by education (previously it was weighting only by race, age, and sex).  As such, this poll result is not comparable to previous AJC/UGA polls.

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 35
Strongly disapprove 42

2020: Plan to vote for Trump 44, against him 47

Has Trump committed an impeachable offense? Yes 45, No 50

Regarding removal, I don't like the way this question is framed: "At the end of the impeachment process, what do you think should happen to President Trump? Should he be removed from office by the Senate, or should the voters be allowed to decide his fate in the 2020 election?"

Remove 38, voters decide 58

Favorability numbers:

Donald Trump 47/50
Brian Kemp 55/35 (Kemp job approval: 60/31)
David Perdue 52/30 (Perdue job approval: 51/28)
Kelly Loeffler 23/20
Doug Collins 35/18

Joe Biden 35/57
Bernie Sanders 36/58
Elizabeth Warren 31/55
Pete Buttigieg 22/49

I'm glad they've started weighting by education, but these numbers seem a little too R-friendly to me.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm glad they've started weighting by education, but these numbers seem a little too R-friendly to me.

Possibly slightly, but if they were not weighting by education before, their results were almost certainly previously too D-friendly.

They have Trump approval at 51-48, which is not far out of line with his winning by 5 points in 2016. It might be a slight overestimate, but it might not be.

The Dem favorabilities do look low, i.e.:

Joe Biden 35/57
Bernie Sanders 36/58
Elizabeth Warren 31/55
Pete Buttigieg 22/49

However, it is GA very early in the cycle and in the midst of the Presidential primary. For example, if you polled RFKfan I would speculate that he would probably say he has negative favorability for Bernie Sanders (because he is thinking in primary terms, not GE terms). But if Sanders won the GE, he would almost certainly vote for Sanders, and would likely say he had a favorable opinion of Sanders at that point (with brain switched to GE mode). (I don't mean to ascribe this necessarily to RFKfan, just using it as a hypothetical example).

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1219367076135161857?s=21

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the CNN poll.  Jan. 16-19, 1156 adults including 1051 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 44

Remove Trump?  Yes 51 (+6), No 45 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 45

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+4), No 47 (-1)

[Cinemark]

Here's the CNN poll.  Jan. 16-19, 1156 adults including 1051 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 44

Remove Trump?  Yes 51 (+6), No 45 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 45

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+4), No 47 (-1)

I cant seem to find the separate RV numbers in the CNN poll, what page are they on?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the CNN poll.  Jan. 16-19, 1156 adults including 1051 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 44

Remove Trump?  Yes 51 (+6), No 45 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 45

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+4), No 47 (-1)

I cant seem to find the separate RV numbers in the CNN poll, what page are they on?

You have to pull them out of the crosstabs for each question (the crosstabs are at the end of the release).  That's why I didn't go back to last month's poll to get the changes...more work than I'm in the mood to do.

[Cinemark]

Here's the CNN poll.  Jan. 16-19, 1156 adults including 1051 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 44

Remove Trump?  Yes 51 (+6), No 45 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 45

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+4), No 47 (-1)

I cant seem to find the separate RV numbers in the CNN poll, what page are they on?

You have to pull them out of the crosstabs for each question (the crosstabs are at the end of the release).  That's why I didn't go back to last month's poll to get the changes...more work than I'm in the mood to do.

Found it.

Approve 45(+1)
Disapprove 51(-1)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1219367076135161857?s=21

Aka the exact same # it was on 538's tracker on Election Day 2018. Not much has changed.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1219367076135161857?s=21

Aka the exact same # it was on 538's tracker on Election Day 2018. Not much has changed.

My interpretation: the electorate of November will be little different from that of 2018. Democrats will win what Hillary Clinton got in 2016 and PA, MI, WI, IA, AZ, ME-02, and NE-02 with Florida and North Carolina iffy.     

[emailking]

More details on the Trump thing.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1219332022826606592

[Cinemark]

He's not even at 51% on Rasmussen right now.