Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Oryxslayer]

Curiously, in an election with two deeply disliked candidates, the share of invalid/blank ballots is on the same level of previous elections, much lower than in the 1st round, and even lower compared with other election like 2006, for example.

And turnout is higher than in round 1. The rate of non-voting is lower than all exits predicted.

I think this can firmly be blamed on an increase in the polarization of the campaign. Its a long-proven part of voter behavior theory that turnout increases with partisan polarization. The various events during the last week of the campaign seem to have heightened the sense of fear and urgency that precipitate said turnout increases. This is the case no matter how liked or disliked a candidate, cause they simply become a vehicle to stop the other side(s).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Maybe there not that disliked in big parts of the population as some people have suggested. Is a symptom of the disconnection in LatAm between the elite and the rest of the population.

Or maybe it was a vote against the other side, like "I cannot spoil my ballot and let the other side win".

Anecdotally this seems like a lot of what it was. But it’s true that at least Castillo isn’t as disliked as some people think - in IEP polls at least he always had a significantly higher amount of people voting for him and not just against Fujimori than Fujimori had for her.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Yep, when stakes are very high, even if both candidates are hated, I suspect people are less likely to spoil their ballot. They will probably vote on financial interests.

[seb_pard]

Maybe there not that disliked in big parts of the population as some people have suggested. Is a symptom of the disconnection in LatAm between the elite and the rest of the population.

Or maybe it was a vote against the other side, like "I cannot spoil my ballot and let the other side win".

Yeah totally and in this election there are a lot of people that voted that way, but I think there is some excitement in some groups (particularly poor people) on Castillo's candidacy. Regarding Fujimori, well, her father has a cult following. And I believe many analysts have overlooked that.

Also I think in some way Peru is experiencing a realignment in this election

[Dereich]

Uh oh Fujimori is going to have to call in another coup favor from the Yanquis.

Why bother when Congress will impeach and remove Castillo within the year anyway?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Uh oh Fujimori is going to have to call in another coup favor from the Yanquis.

Why bother when Congress will impeach and remove Castillo within the year anyway?

My favorite part of the Castillo presidency will be Keiko never being the first woman president.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

This election is so close that it could go to penalties.

[seb_pard]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

Its from Arica which is a border town - might as well be part of Peru!

Except this result is still surprising - Humala only received 23% of the vote in Arica in 2011. There were far fewer eligible voters then so I wonder if many Peruvian migrants settled there recently.

Peruvian population in Chile doubles from 2010 to 2019, so you can expect higher vote across all the country.

Very good results for Castillo indeed, but I would say that we can expect more favorable vote for Fujimori in Santiago and Central Chile, as in that part an important share of the Peruvian community are professionals and middle/upper class Peruvians that will probably vote for Fujimori. I believe most of Peruvians in the north are mainly from poorer communities, but we shall see.

Nevertheless we can expect something similar to Argentina (although better for Castillo)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Anyone have any insight into the outstanding vote? Still nothing from the US.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Anyone have any insight into the outstanding vote? Still nothing from the US.

Peru 98% in and 50.235% to 49.765% for Castillo. Remaining areas Castillo but not monolithically from what I can tell. So probably 50.3% for Castillo.

That means Fujimori needs 70% of the expat vote on current turnout. Right now she is on 62% but that will increase when America comes in. So it really is down to the wire. My hunch is Castillo though.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Anyone have any insight into the outstanding vote? Still nothing from the US.

Peru 98% in and 50.235% to 49.765% for Castillo. Remaining areas Castillo but not monolithically from what I can tell. So probably 50.3% for Castillo.

That means Fujimori needs 70% of the expat vote on current turnout. Right now she is on 62% but that will increase when America comes in. So it really is down to the wire. My hunch is Castillo though.

Thanks for the breakdown.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Not to count my crabs before they rave but at this point I feel like Keiko loses by the skin of the skin of her teeth, just like against PPK.

[PSOL]

Outside of NYC, I expect most Peruvian Americans to be small business owners and rich expats, who are a prime anti-Castillo democratic. Hypothetically Fujimori could get 60-80k votes wiping off Castillo’s lead in Peru.

This is Turkey 2018 all over again where the diaspora vote, the majority disconnected from the reality inside the country, decides to cast a fate of endless despair and suffering on the homeland.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

This is Turkey 2018 all over again where the diaspora vote, the majority disconnected from the reality inside the country, decides to cast a fate of endless despair and suffering on the homeland.

Oh believe me they are casting their votes for akp so they can have a cheap holiday in Turkey with their euro-based salaries.

[Red Velvet]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

More similar to Bolivia than Argentina then.

Are Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil the only American countries that have Fujimori with less than 60%? Besides Cuba of course, where Castillo won.

EDIT: Wait, just saw that it is actually CASTILLO winning in Chile, I probably read that wrong because didn’t thought it was possible lmao

So Cuba and Chile are the only American countries that picked Castillo and join Russia, Norway and Sweden in the world as a whole (only a few counted from Chile though).

There are some quite good amount of Chilean votes so that could be what Castillo needs to prevent likely US Keiko vote from closing the gap in her favor.

[Red Velvet]

Anyone have any insight into the outstanding vote? Still nothing from the US.

Whoever wins, I predict there will be DRAMA over these US votes dumped at the last possible time lmao

There’s still some Peru vote to come in though, they’re just over 98%. So Castillo will probably reach 50,3 or 50,4 overall before that.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I've seen enough.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Anyone know how San Isidro voted in the first round? (88% Fujimori in second...)

[Oryxslayer]

Here's something that I hope will help guide analysis. Blue is 100% or insanely close to 100% of polling stations counted. Orange are departments with vote uncounted.

EDIT: Ucayali, the middle Amazon Province, has now reached 100%.

[Red Velvet]

Here's something that I hope will help guide analysis. Blue is 100% or insanely close to 100% of polling stations counted. Orange are departments with vote uncounted.

All Castillo vote to come in from Peru. He’ll likely reach 50,4% and then there’s all the foreign vote to come in and considering Chile is voting for Castillo with 65%, Keiko probably needs insane margins in US to compensate.

Which is possible considering Mexico and Canada are doing 75% and 76% Keiko.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Here's something that I hope will help guide analysis. Blue is 100% or insanely close to 100% of polling stations counted. Orange are departments with vote uncounted.

All Castillo vote to come in from Peru. He’ll likely reach 50,4% and then there’s all the foreign vote to come in and considering Chile is voting for Castillo with 65%, Keiko probably needs insane margins in US to compensate.

Which is possible considering Mexico and Canada are doing 75% and 76% Keiko.

That Chile vote is only ~2% of the total, though, concentrated in the far north.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If the present trend holds exactly then Castillo will squeak ahead in the Peruvian vote but lose overall thanks to the Expat votes. Peru could have an even closer election than 2016 if that actually happens.

An interesting thing I noticed, though, is that Fujimori is currently overperforming the exit poll in the Amazonian provinces (Amazonas, Loreto, Ucayali, etc). It's possible that this was a genuine polling miss but my guess is that the cities are reporting early and the (presumably pro-Castillo) jungle vote is just starting to show up. As an aside, I find it interesting how the mountain provinces have gone 80%+ for Castillo when the jungle provinces are much closer.

In other words, Castillo should probably outperform his current numbers in those provinces and he might actually accelerate his increase towards the end. So he still has a path to victory, albeit a narrow one.

and it looks like this is basically what happened, since Fujimori's lead in Ucayali and Loreto has steadily dropped as more votes have come in.

As things stand right now Castillo leads the Peruvian vote by just under 101k votes with 1.5% left to report. Meanwhile the amount of votes Fujimori could pick up from the international vote ranges  anywhere from 50k to 225k, but realistically I think Castillo almost certainly wins if his final lead in Peru is over 150k and he very likely wins if it's over 125k.

I'd say Castillo's odds of victory are over 75% but it all comes down to how pro-Castillo the outstanding jungle vote is and how pro-Fujimori the outstanding expat vote is, since in both cases they're going to be much more disproportionately one sided than the currently counted votes.

[Sestak]

If we just look proportionally it looks like there are about ~75K net votes for Castillo left in Peru. Combine with an 88K current overall margin (and 100K in Peru itself) it looks pretty much over unless what remains is much worse for Castillo or smaller batches relative to their departments.

[seb_pard]

Anyone know how San Isidro voted in the first round? (88% Fujimori in second...)

De Soto 32.5%
Lopez Aliaga 29.3%
Mendoza 8.5%
Fujimori 7.7%

(A few candidates)

Castillo 1.0%

[Geoffrey Howe]

Anyone know how San Isidro voted in the first round? (88% Fujimori in second...)

De Soto 32.5%
Lopez Aliaga 29.3%
Mendoza 8.5%
Fujimori 7.7%

(A few candidates)

Castillo 1.0%

Wow. 8% to 88%