CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Arnie Scharzenegger was a Kennedy and penetrated the Latino vote,

Yikes! Phrasing!

Looked intentional to me. I laughed

It's hilarious! But I don't know if Olawakandi has the capabilities to make a joke that good except on accident. No offense.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Caitlyn Jenner might as well be Meghan McCain-someone who appeals to absolutely no one and seems to find a way to piss off every possible type of political demographic. I don't know if she knows this, and actually thinks she can win, but if so then it truly is entirely a vanity campaign. If we're lucky she'll be a footnote in this possible election like Kanye West was in 2020, in spite of their celebrity...and relationship to Kim Kardashian.

Is our politics just going become Six Degrees of Kardashian at this point? Trump even factors into that!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Caitlyn Jenner might as well be Meghan McCain-someone who appeals to absolutely no one and seems to find a way to piss off every possible type of political demographic. I don't know if she knows this, and actually thinks she can win, but if so then it truly is entirely a vanity campaign. If we're lucky she'll be a footnote in this possible election like Kanye West was in 2020, in spite of their celebrity...and relationship to Kim Kardashian.

Is our politics just going become Six Degrees of Kardashian at this point? Trump even factors into that!

Why doesn't Jenner appeal to anyone? Explain. She was an U.S. Olympian....

She's too pro-Trump and right wing for Democrats, with trans activists thinking she is a  counterproductive spokesperson of theirs. And for Republicans she is possibly the poster-child for their paranoid fantasies of gender-bending athletes exploiting trans awareness for grandeur and prestige. She is also no longer the Bruce Jenner of their youth and they can't accept it. They are possibly too transphobic to even accept her as their "trans friend" to prove that theya ren't actually transphobic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Watch all the peace loving LGBT activists say transphobic s*** about Caitlyn Jenner now that they realized she's based and red pilled.  We don't care what you do in the bedroom, if you love America, we support you.  I hereby endorse Caitlyn Jenner for governor~!

I've seen a lot of criticism by LGBTQ+ activists towards Jenner, but none of it has ever been inconsistent. Stop projecting.

Watch all the peace loving LGBT activists say transphobic s*** about Caitlyn Jenner now that they realized she's based and red pilled.  We don't care what you do in the bedroom, if you love America, we support you.  I hereby endorse Caitlyn Jenner for governor~!

What will Gavin Newsom do without the coveted "DabbingSanta endorsement?"  At this rate, he'll never win the Random Canadian Incel vote! 

That endorsement seems pretty easy to get. Just give him some reason to think that you, as a candidate, are going to validate his dislike of things "the left" does. So, really, just be a Republican.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Talk show host Wendy Williams calls California's economy a "joke", calls Newsom a joke and endorses Steve Lodge for governor.

Lodge is a conservative man who is the fiance of Wendy's friend, former reality TV star Vicki Gunvalson of Orange County

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/real-housewives-vicki-gunvalson-fiance-run-governor

Ah yes, the coveted Wendy Williams endorsement. Newsom has no chance now!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let me remind everyone that in last year's Senate election in South Carolina, polls during the final month or two indicated that the two major candidates were headed to a photo finish. I was skeptical of those polls because they greatly contradicted the fundamentals of that state. It turns out my skepticism was well founded, as the final margin was in the double digits. Here, I suspect a similar dynamic may end up playing out - where the incumbent ends up surviving by a larger-than-expected margin due to the fundamentals of the state winning out.

I said this exact same thing in another thread. I'm only pointing it out so you don't think I'm copying your perspective. I wrote that post before I saw this one. I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks this way.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think the tide is turning. Elder is starting to get scrutinized, and as the GOP's top contender to replace Newsom I'm seeing a lot more people (well, on the internet, so take that with a block of salt) start to finally take this race seriously and compare its urgency to that of Brexit. The only real way this recall would have succeeded would have been if California Democrats were apathetic, and that may not actually be the case anymore. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

What's the deal with Elder? The guy doesn't have any real qualifications for the job and reading his political positions on Wikipedia page tells me that he's a far-right nutjob. He'd not represent a majority of Californians.

What's the deal with Elder? The guy doesn't have any real qualifications for the job and reading his political positions on Wikipedia page tells me that he's a far-right nutjob. He'd not represent a majority of Californians.

Not that Republicans have ever cared abut qualifications. Especially in California. Let's not forget that the state produced not only Reagan but also Schwarzenegger and even Sonny frigging Bono!

What's funny is that Trey and Matt likely voted for Biden and are probably voting NO on the recall. They're still libertarian bros to a degree but they are NOT the careless dudebros they were 25 years ago.

Their politics have definitely shifted in both attitude and ideology. They aren't really "above it all" anymore. Hell, they outright made an episode apologizing to Al Gore.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Why? He's too slick? I always saw him as someone who was positioning to be the new Bill Clinton/Tony Blair....slick, affable, and charming, but for some reasons it never aligned....

I always liked Newsom and never really understood the dislike for him, though I'd assume he'd lack a national base of support and that he has some brand as an elitist. What he should do or should already have done is setting more signature legislative coals to tackle problems like homelessness. Seems like he should do more of that and build up a brand to become a viable national candidate.

Newsom was likely always eying running for the presidency down the line, and Democratic insiders likely always viewed him as a rising star, but you can forget about that now! Whether you like, hate, or simply tolerate him; it's pretty obvious his tenure as Governor has been disappointing, and especially with the recall, ruined any prospects he might have had.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Why? He's too slick? I always saw him as someone who was positioning to be the new Bill Clinton/Tony Blair....slick, affable, and charming, but for some reasons it never aligned....

I always liked Newsom and never really understood the dislike for him, though I'd assume he'd lack a national base of support and that he has some brand as an elitist. What he should do or should already have done is setting more signature legislative coals to tackle problems like homelessness. Seems like he should do more of that and build up a brand to become a viable national candidate.

Newsom was likely always eying running for the presidency down the line, and Democratic insiders likely always viewed him as a rising star, but you can forget about that now! Whether you like, hate, or simply tolerate him; it's pretty obvious his tenure as Governor has been disappointing, and especially with the recall, ruined any prospects he might have had.

I don't think that there's ever been any chance of his being president (the most similar politician I can think of is Andrew Cuomo), but the idea that a frivolous recall that he could well win by a huge margin suggests that his time in office has been some kind of failure is ridiculous.

But why is the recall going to fail? It's because Democrats don't want a Republican in his position, not so much because he is popular and well-liked. That mere apathetic tolerance is why the recall ever even looked like it would succeed.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

Our idiot populace always complains about this, yet can't help themselves but to vote for it. Americans are not a thinking people.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Huge endorsement
https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1434174701182586883

Yeah, that'll help!

Seriously I think the California GOP, by pursuing this recall and making Elder the alternative, may have inadvertently rehabilitated Newsom's reputation in the state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obama is cutting an ad for Newsom, it will be airing everywhere starting tomorrow.

Harris is holding a rally for him today, Biden seemingly Monday

Oh no! The election is safe R now!

[Progressive Pessimist]

At this point it feels like anti-recall side is just trying to run up the score as much as possible.

As they should. I really don't want to deal with "Democrats in Disarray over recall election underperformance!" takes on here and in the media after the election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why or how exactly did a state race like this get nationalized? Why is this so much more nationalized  that the NJ or VA race?

It was the Republicans. They literally shot themselves in the foot. Not that they ever had a chance, but The whole thing’s been pretty funny.

Can you explain how republicans nationalized this? It seems to me that Newsom team consisntely had non California politicians all over the news.

Also you realize anyone the GOP would have had as the front runner would have been tabled all the same things they did to elder right?

I pointed this out in another thread, but in this case with Elder as the leading candidate and so prominently believing in the abolition of the minimum wage, it completely undermines the very point that the California GOP ostensibly had to establish the recall. The big criticism of California under Democratic leadership is the cost of living; and you cannot blame the average Californian, especially if they're loyal Democrats, to become galvanized against a candidate who would say that. How does it make any sense for Californians to be more financially well-off without a minimum wage? Forget Elder's personal foibles, this, plus the state's natural partisan lean, made this electoral pursuit doomed and feel like a pointless waste of time and resources.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/lara_korte/status/1436412797517131776?s=20

The modern GOP folks.

He is going to lose by double-digits, it's so absurd that Republicans are capable of believing that a margin of that size can be fabricated in one of the nation's most Democratic states.

[Progressive Pessimist]

what are you talking about?

Who? Me? You tend to not like me, so I'm just going to assume you are.

I'm expressing confusion about why Republicans can't even accept that they can lose fair and square in one of the nation's most hostile states to them. You'd think that even bulls*** conspiracies need at least some grounding, right?

[Progressive Pessimist]

what are you talking about?

Who? Me? You tend to not like me, so I'm just going to assume you are.

I'm expressing confusion about why Republicans can't even accept that they can lose fair and square in one of the nation's most hostile states to them. You'd think that even bulls*** conspiracies need at least some grounding, right?

no, not you, i'm talking about the weirdo who wandered into the thread about California and is talking about montana for some reason

Hah! Okay. Yeah, MTTreasurer has the tendency to do his schtick and find some way to slightly relate it to the topic at hand.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Posting crap like this will NOT help Republican turnout. These people are incredibly stupid.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/wayne-root-larry-elder-will-win-california-recall-electionbut-will-lose-rigged-election-just-like-trump/

"Your vote doesn't count!"

What a horrible way to speak to your voters.

I wonder how close the CAGOP could have made this race. An outright victory would have been unlikely regardless, and the CAGOP are infamous for being incompetent, but I feel they could have done a much better job during this campaign, and get a morale victory for 2022, but this didn't happen. Will the CAGOP learn anything from this?

I really hope this recall puts to bed the take of "The CA GOP aren't a terrible state party, CA is just so blue".

No, the CA GOP are a terrible & incompetent state party. They've somehow gotten even more out-of-touch & crazier with this recall than without.

Perhaps them picking up those four House districts made them cocky.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I haven't posted here since yesterday night, before we got the results; so here's what I took away from this waste of $270 million:

I predicted that the recall would fail by about 16 points. I thought this not just because of polling during the summer but also because I was under the impression that Republican turnout would return to the typical rate of when they are out of power. I never thought they had a chance to remove Newsom, even when polling for him was at its worst, but I did think the margin would be a bit weak for a California election for the reason I laid out.

Now, even though we don't know the final margin it is looking pretty safely to be in the early 20's. So with that in mind, Republicans lost their bread-and-butter advantage of higher turnout as an equalizer in statewide elections while a Democrat is President. It should have been a worse result, but Democrats turned out. I don't want to extrapolate too much about 2022, at least not until the New Jersey and Virginia elections, but I do see a positive sign for Democrats from this. I may have underestimated my fellow Democratic voters. I expected them to become complacent again and allow Republicans to have the enthusiasm edge, but that didn't happen. Democrats can indeed still be motivated to vote in off-years when a Democrat is President, and it probably is due to white college educated voters now seemingly being the new backbone of the Democratic Party and due to the national GOP's devolution into a party that cares only about its increasingly unhinged primary voters (two sides of the same coin, really). So what this tells me is that in 2022, in certain states like California at least, the anti-recall playbook can be successful. Democrats are truly as receptive to fear tactics as Republicans always were; and fear works! In our case that fear is the Trumpization of the Republican Party, and other GOP candidates being tied to the former guy. It probably isn't a good sign for our country's potential  for unity going forward, but since the things we fear are far more realistic and tangible, it's necessary and probably should have been done more in 2020. I am still not entirely convinced that this will mitigate how bad 2022 could be, but I am certainly a bit more open to it now. And I have always said from the get-go that 2022 would be very polarized and in no way as good for the GOP as 2010 and 2014 objectively were. And I think this election might back that notion up.

We'll see still. I'm Progressive Pessimist after all! But needless to say, for now, I am satisfied with this result and the hubris it exposed from the California GOP. All this because Newsom made an optics blunder. Was it worth it?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just ignore US exit polls, they're all junk.

All our polls are junk now. We have to go off of the environment and state partisanship now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Merced finally flipped to Yes

Boooo. Riverside just flipped to yes

Yes  339,496  50.04   (+0.57)
No   339,020  49.96    (-0.57)


30k VBM + 5k provisionals left to count

Dems in disarray! The California GOP returns from the dead!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't believe in fraud theories, but the extremely slow vote counting makes me doubt the integrity of this election.

Then you're just pathetically looking for any excuse possible to believe them. You're like the anti-vaxxers who are "doing their own research."

If I went by your logic, Florida counts too quickly and therefore something must be up! It's not like Republicans win here all the time!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Where did the new votes come from?

Stacey Abrams’s patented ballot printer

Thought it was Joe Biden’s ballot printer

No, no. It's George Soros'.