Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Holmes]

Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

They were going to herd with the rest of the polls but then they saw the SurveyMonkey poll and malfunctioned.

[Holmes]

Arkansas Yankee keeps bringing up Ted Kennedy but the last post of the previous megathread is him saying he would just watch as someone strangles Gloria Allred.

So...

[Holmes]

So we have Survey Monkey saying "Jones should win, but..." and Gravis saying "Moore should win, but...". How one should interpret this is beyond me.

Isn't Survey monkey trash tho

Mixed bag. Some correct calls last year and some big misses.

[Holmes]

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Interesting. I wonder how Jefferson looks. I think Virginia spoiled us when we were able to see the absentee numbers in every county.

[Holmes]

Stupid sh**t like that picture is annoying because it propagates the lie that Trump has no support even in his best areas, which might cause some people to just sit on their ass and do nothing.

[Holmes]

Lyman says this.

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Dothan up is good for Moore but I'm feeling like Etowah won't come out in big numbers for him.

[Holmes]

Moore won Etowah county in 2012 but it gave him some pretty weak numbers, especially for his home base. Since then, with the allegations, I would keep a close eye on that one Tuesday.

[Holmes]

I’m in Gadsden right now.. a lot more signs are out today for both candidates. Jones still has more than Moore.

Our those lawn signs or signs just on public property?

Both

Who has more signs at the mall?

[Holmes]

Let's just all agree on the term "kiddy diddler" ok? Also Ted Kennedy.

[Holmes]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

I've had Missouri 2012 at the back of my mind for a while too.

[Holmes]

I feel like the fact that Moore is not on the campaign trail at all his final week (and barely was before) and that Jones is touring the state and commanding the airwaves and digital ads is underrated. Moore isn't giving people a reason to vote for him.

[Holmes]

I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

[Holmes]

I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Or just...you know...not show up to vote at all.

Yes, there are more than two options.

[Holmes]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

[Holmes]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

If Moore really did win by 5,000 votes I would be so disappointed.

[Holmes]

I posted it on the first page of this thread. The comment about blacks not voting Republican because they are stupid was rather saddening.

Yeah and Obama caused the racial division in Alabama.

[Holmes]

I've heard through the grapevines from someone who was in the know about VA polls before they released that there's a good poll for Jones releasing tomorrow. Could be the Emerson one?

[Holmes]

Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.

[Holmes]

Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.

Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

I don't know. I said everything I heard.

[Holmes]

Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.

Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

Hey marty, it was Fox after all.

[Holmes]

SurveyMonkey was a mixed bag last year.

[Holmes]

It sucks that 2014 was uncontested, I would've loved to see a swig map.

[Holmes]

When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

Apparently never.

Emerson, Fox and Change...

[Holmes]

Virginia probably spoiled us when it comes to hourly turnout reports. I get the feeling that we won't be getting many official turnout numbers today from county clerks.

But it might be for the best because it caused some people to go a little crazy last month.

[Holmes]

Don't read much into these anecdotal turnout bits, reminds me of how people were declaring Hillary the winner based off of high morning turnout in cities

Why go back so far? People were saying Northam landslide last month two hours after the polls opened based on turnout reports, then SW VA started to catch up and it started raining in NoVA and Northam was finished.