Austrian Parliamentary Election - 28/09/2008

[Verily]

Please, SPO voters, loan some votes to the LIF!

[Tender Branson]

Please, SPO voters, loan some votes to the LIF!

Your prayers worked (for now) ...

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:

SPÖ - 28%
ÖVP - 27%
FPÖ - 17%
Greens - 12%
BZÖ - 6%
LIF - 4%
FRITZ - 3%
Others - 3%

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/OGM poll:

SPÖ - 29%
ÖVP - 27%
FPÖ - 17%
Greens - 12%
BZÖ - 7%
LIF - 4%

FRITZ - 2%
Others - 2%

[Hash]

How do you explain what happened to Fritz-Citizens' Forum? From 7% to 2%?

[Tender Branson]

How do you explain what happened to Fritz-Citizens' Forum? From 7% to 2%?

No money, no organization, no representation. Maybe the polls are just underestimating him, like they did before the 2008 Tyrol State elections, but it will be really hard for them to cross 4%.

[Tender Branson]

New GGMK/Bezirksblätter poll with a sample of 2.408 Austrians:

SPÖ: 30% (-5.3)
ÖVP: 27% (-7.3)
FPÖ: 18% (+7.0)
Greens: 11% (-0.1)
BZÖ: 6% (+1.9)
FRITZ: 4% (+4.0)

LIF: 3% (+3.0)
Others (KPÖ, DC, RETTÖ): 1% (-3.2)

[Tender Branson]

New GGMK/Bezirksblätter poll with a sample of 2.408 Austrians

I also read in the "Bezirksblatt" of my county that they also polled 4 states.

The result for Salzburg was:

SPÖ - 29% (+0.5)
ÖVP - 28% (-11.2)
FPÖ - 18% (+5.7)
Greens - 12% (-0.5)
BZÖ - 4% (+0.9)
LIF - 4% (+4.0)
FRITZ - 4% (+4.0)
Others - 1% (-3.4)

The results for Burgenland:

SPÖ - 44% (-1.0)
ÖVP - 33% (-3.1)
FPÖ - 11% (+2.3)
Greens - 5% (-0.8 )
BZÖ - 3% (+1.3)
LIF - 2% (+2.0)
FRITZ - 1% (+1.0)
Others - 1% (-1.7)

The results for Lower Austria:

SPÖ - 35% (-1.2)
ÖVP - 32% (-7.2)
FPÖ - 17% (+7.4)
Greens - 7% (-2.0)
BZÖ - 3% (+0.7)
FRITZ - 3% (+3.0)
LIF - 2% (+2.0)
Others - 1% (-2.7)

The results for Tyrol:

ÖVP - 34% (-9.8 )
FRITZ - 19% (+19.0)
SPÖ - 17% (-6.2)
FPÖ - 14% (+3.2)
Greens - 12% (-1.0)
Others - 4% (-5.2)

[Tender Branson]

Latest Profil/OGM poll:

SPÖ: 28% (-7)
ÖVP: 26% (-8)
FPÖ: 18% (+7)
Greens: 12% (+1)
BZÖ: 8% (+4)
LIF: 4% (+4)

FRITZ: 2% (+2)
Others (KPÖ, RETTÖ, DC): 2% (-3)

[Tender Branson]

The final number of eligible voters:

6.332.931 (3.301.424 women, 3.031.507 men)

The latest Kurier/Integral poll:



The latest Salzburg State Poll by IGF:

[Хahar 🤔]

The FPÖ numbers disappoint me.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ numbers disappoint me.

They are stagnating, because the BZÖ is gaining due to Jörg Haider. If they were united (18%+7%), they would fight for 1st place.

[Хahar 🤔]

The FPÖ numbers disappoint me.

They are stagnating, because the BZÖ is gaining due to Jörg Haider. If they were united (18%+7%), they would fight for 1st place.

Which is very scary.

What are the differences? Is it personality-based?

[minionofmidas]

The FPÖ numbers disappoint me.

They are stagnating, because the BZÖ is gaining due to Jörg Haider. If they were united (18%+7%), they would fight for 1st place.

Which is very scary.

What are the differences? Is it personality-based?

Almost entirely.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ numbers disappoint me.

They are stagnating, because the BZÖ is gaining due to Jörg Haider. If they were united (18%+7%), they would fight for 1st place.

Which is very scary.

What are the differences? Is it personality-based?

Almost entirely.

Their positions on the issues are more or less identical, with exceptions when it comes to abolishing the draft and creating an all-voluntary army (FPÖ: against, BZÖ: for). The BZÖ is also for free child care slots, the FPÖ is opposed. The FPÖ favors abolishing tuition fees and the BZÖ is against. The BZÖ is also against military engagement of the Austrian army in EU missions, like in Chad - the FPÖ is for it. When it comes to foreigners, their policies are almost the same. And then there's the fact that Haider and Strache hate each other.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24/Gallup poll:

SPÖ: 28%
ÖVP: 26%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 12%
BZÖ: 8%
LIF: 4%

FRITZ: 3%
Others (KPÖ, RETTÖ, DC): 2%

...

Latest NEWS/Market poll:

SPÖ: 29%
ÖVP: 26%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 11%
BZÖ: 6%
LIF: 3%

FRITZ: 2%
Others (KPÖ, RETTÖ, DC): 3%

[Tender Branson]

Latest Profil/OGM poll:

SPÖ: 29%
ÖVP: 26%
FPÖ: 18%
Greens: 11%
BZÖ: 8%
LIF: 4%

Others (FRITZ, KPÖ, RETTÖ, DC): 4%

...

No majority for SPÖ-Greens-LIF, SPÖ-FPÖ or ÖVP-FPÖ.

Only possible coalition => Grand Coalition.

[Tender Branson]

The Greens and the LIF are currently in a self-destruct mode, because of militant animal rights activists and one of the LIF's frontrunners admitted lobbying for EADS, who sent us the unpopular Eurofighters.

[Tender Branson]

The latest Ö24/Gallup poll breakdown by state:



The fact that the 3 Center-Right parties are currently even with the 2 Center-Left parties in Vienna is amazing, if true.

Also the fact that the ÖVP gets destroyed in the historical battleground and show-me state of Upper Austria (OÖ).

It's also funny that Carinthia (Kärnten) is turning into some kind of Austrian Alabama (BZÖ+ÖVP+FPÖ at 64%).

[Dan the Roman]

The Greens and the LIF are currently in a self-destruct mode, because of militant animal rights activists and one of the LIF's frontrunners admitted lobbying for EADS, who sent us the unpopular Eurofighters.

Whats the chance LIF won't get in. If they fail don't you reduce the numbers you need for a majority, at least to the point where OVP-FPO becomes possible?

[Tender Branson]

The Greens and the LIF are currently in a self-destruct mode, because of militant animal rights activists and one of the LIF's frontrunners admitted lobbying for EADS, who sent us the unpopular Eurofighters.

Whats the chance LIF won't get in. If they fail don't you reduce the numbers you need for a majority, at least to the point where OVP-FPO becomes possible?

The lobbying impact will be seen in the next few polls. But I can't see the LIF getting above 4% anymore. Also FRITZ will remain at 3%, because they don't have the ressources or the infrastructure to run a serious campaign outside of Tirol. That leaves the KPÖ, The Christian Party and Save Austria with another 2%. So, 92% will be the base for mandates and about 46-47% will be the majority in parliament then. Because the ÖVP currently has the support of only 26% and the FPÖ can't get higher than 18%, a coalition between both is unrealistic. Not to mention that moderate Willy Molterer from the ÖVP will hardly enter a coalition with the radical HC Strache of the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

TIME article by Bethany Bell and Andrew Purvis:

Austria's Far Right on the Rise


Leader of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria,
Heinz-Christian Strache, speaks to supporters in
Neusiedl Am See.

Nestled in the vineyards and rolling uplands east of Vienna, the town of Neusiedl am See is celebrated for its wine taverns, fine fish restaurants and water sports. Geraniums peak from window boxes; the cobblestone streets are meticulously swept clean each morning. The only thing the casual visitor might find mildly unnerving is the squawk of storks from their huge nests on the old town's chimney tops.

But for Austrian far-right politician Heinz-Christian Strache, Neusiedl am See is ripe for revolution. Speaking on a recent sun-drenched evening in the picture-book town square, he shouted and railed against the European Union, rising food prices, and the danger posed by "criminal immigrants." "Anyone who comes here and doesn't work, and becomes a criminal, will be deported!" warns the blue-eyed politico, a dental technician by training, dressed in an elegant brown linen designer jacket, to loud cheers from the gathering crowd and a blast of his own rap song, "Viva H.C.!" from towering speakers.

Strache is leader of Austria's far-right Freedom Party, which together with an offshoot far-right party known as the Alliance for the Future of Austria is expected to win up to a quarter of the vote in general elections scheduled for September 28. That would be the best result for the anti-immigrant far right in Austria since the same Freedom Party, then led by the charismatic Jörg Haider, won nearly 28% of the vote back in 1999, triggering a wave of European indignation that culminated in E.U.-imposed sanctions. Haider split from the Freedom Party and now leads the Alliance.

It's not clear whether either far-right party would be invited to form part of Vienna's next government. The mainstream Social Democrats and the conservative People's Party (each currently polling around 30%, depending on the survey) are still expected to come in first and second. But the popularity of both the traditional parties has plummeted to historic lows. And whatever the shape of the next government, it will be under mounting pressure to pursue the kind of anti-European Union and anti-immigrant policies that the populist right favors, says Thomas Hofer, a political consultant and a former editor at the newsmagazine Profil. "The right wing in Austria is on the rise again," he says.

The irony in that rise is that Austria has rarely had it so good. Growth and investment have easily outpaced the E.U. average for years; banks are profiting from new markets in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The capital Vienna, flush with tax revenues, looks almost imperial again. Much of the country's prosperity is a direct consequence of one of the far right's most cherished bugbears: the E.U.'s expansion towards the east.

So it's not economic woes that are pushing voters to the right; in part it's immigration, which has long been an emotive issue for Austrians. Austria's location in the heart of Central Europe has made it a favored destination for several generations of migrants, from Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968 and, most recently, the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Against this modern reality stands Austria's relish of its historical role as a bulwark against eastern encroachments. The repulse of the Ottoman Empire's army from Vienna in 1683, when Muslim hordes were feared to be on the verge of overrunning Europe, is still widely commemorated. At the same time, Austrians are among the most euro-skeptic populations on the Continent. Just 28%, in a recent survey, said that they had a positive view of the E.U., a lower percentage even than in Britain. The sanctions imposed on Austria by the E.U. after Haider's strong showing in 1999 seem to have triggered an abiding sense of spite towards Brussels among large swaths of the population.

Meanwhile, Austria's mainstream parties, which have shared power in grand coalitions for most of the post-war period, are running out of steam. The latest partnership lasted less than two years before collapsing in acrimony in July, triggering this month's vote. An un-charismatic Social Democratic chancellor, Alfred Gusenbauer, failed to push through a single major policy initiative in the face of opposition from his ostensible governing partners in the conservative People's Party, which was looking for any excuse to break up the marriage. The final straw appears to have been Gusenbauer's promise, in a letter to a mass-market tabloid, that the Social Democrats would not approve any future E.U. treaty amendments without a popular referendum, a measure that the pro-E.U. conservatives said they could not accept. The latest polls say that a paltry 15% of Austrians want to see another grand coalition after this month's vote.

All of which is great news for leaders like Strache. The far right, says Hofer, "has been surprisingly good at connecting globalization, inflation and European issues to migration. It's not logical or fact-based, but they are talented politicians who are serving their target groups. These are well-crafted messages." In terms of actual policy, Strache has promised little except some programs to monitor immigrants who have been convicted of a crime with implanted chips and a call to deport "immigrant criminals." Crime levels in Austria, though rising, are still among the lowest in Europe.

The old days of Austria's far right, in which politicians, including Haider, commended Adolf Hitler's employment programs or spoke sympathetically to groups of former Wehrmacht officers, are over. Instead, Strache, 39, is presenting himself as a rebel and an outsider.

This produces some jarring juxtapositions. Though he has built his career on dire warnings about the dangers of foreigners, Strache poses on his website as Che Guevara, donning the rebel's trademark beret and highlighting the last three letters of his name for anyone who misses the point. He praises Venezuela's left-wing demagogue Hugo Chavez and, in his campaign rap "Viva HC!", chants "Yes-We-Can" (in English), a reference to the campaign slogan of Barack Obama. That's an odd choice given that Strache is urging that some African immigrants be deported. "Austria! First!" he sings, backed by an unsettling crowd chant. "Our Homeland! Our people! Our culture! Our language! Is what I stand for, HC Strache!"

Strache's supporters are enthusiastic. "Patriotism is very important for me," says one, who gave his name as Geza, a 24-year-old law student. "It is the basis for tackling all other issues." Geza worries that "we are losing our national sovereignty." Of Strache he says: "He speaks to us, the youth. He is not afraid to talk about sensitive issues and he doesn't throw sand in our eyes." Karl, a pensioner in his 70s, complains that "the Blacks (the conservative People's Party) are kapitalistische Schweine. And the Reds (Social Democrats) are just the same. Strache is a super man." Maybe. Some campaign literature from the Freedom Party even depicts Strache literally as a super hero, blue jump suit and all, hovering in the sky to protects Austrians from the alleged cynical manipulations of the Social Democrats who supposedly are admitting immigrants just to get their votes. Austria's far right seems to be quite good at telling stories. But as a political phenomenon they are all too real.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1842189,00.html

[minionofmidas]

Carinthia has been... special... since at least WWII.

Mind you, it used to be an FPÖ stronghold with a very weak ÖVP way back when, with the SPÖ polling approximately their national numbers but always the strongest party as a result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Carinthia has been... special... since at least WWII.

Any reason for that [qm]

[Tender Branson]

Carinthia has been... special... since at least WWII.

Any reason for that [qm]

Mainly because most of the former FPÖ voters in the 50s and early 60s were won over by the emerging Bruno Kreisky in the 70s. That's when the FPÖ's share went down to 10% between 1970-80 and the SPÖ jumped to 56%.

Then Jörg Haider came and the SPÖ subsided from a People's Party to a party with now 19% (! ?), with the BZÖ taking the status of a People's Party.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/wahlen/wahldownloads/NRW_06/NRW_06_Ergebnisse_1945_Ktn.pdf

[minionofmidas]

I think he meant reasons for the pre-Kreisky state of affairs. Which is sort of harder.
The language/"race" issue plays a role of course, but that can't be all.