Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!
I don’t think you understand what Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight does. They are just reporting and aggregating polls right now. Not making any kind of judgments on what they mean. (Their poll ratings give you a better indication on which polls are most trustworthy.) When the real model comes out, that will be closer to an actual prediction/forecast, but you still have to understand polls are just a snapshot in time and the odds do not imply any sort of guarantee the candidate ahead will win. Just saying what the current probability is given available information.
