Fox News: Biden+9 in MI, +13 in MN, +11 in PA

[wbrocks67]

Wow, so Monmouth was onto something in PA. Also gives credence to the congressional polls that were showing Biden double digits ahead of Clinton 2016.

Also, this gives credence to the Biden +16 (I think?) poll out of MN a month or two ago

[wbrocks67]

Can't be. Nate Silver told me that Biden's national polling average has collapsed to 7 points, and these states are not suddenly 2-5 points left of the national average. Sorry guys!

I don’t think you understand what Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight does. They are just reporting and aggregating polls right now. Not making any kind of judgments on what they mean. (Their poll ratings give you a better indication on which polls are most trustworthy.) When the real model comes out, that will be closer to an actual prediction/forecast, but you still have to understand polls are just a snapshot in time and the odds do not imply any sort of guarantee the candidate ahead will win. Just saying what the current probability is given available information.

No, I think he's talking about Nate's tweets. Silver was certainly trying to be pessimistic about Biden the other day, even saying that his "TX polls are meh" despite Biden literally *leading* in Texas right now.

[wbrocks67]

Wow @ the favorabilities and the "extremely interested" parts.

MICHIGAN
“Among the 53 percent who are extremely interested”, Biden up 10% (53-43)
Trump job approval: 45/54 (-9) was -4 in April
Whitmer job approval: 64/33 (+31)
Biden fav: 53/42 (+11)
Trump fav: 44/54 (-10)

MINNESOTA
“Among voters who are extremely interested in the election”, Biden up 27% (61-34)
Walz job approval: 65/30 (+35)
Trump job approval: 42/57 (-15)
Biden fav: 53/43 (+10)
Trump fav: 40/58 (-18)

PENNSYLVANIA
“Among voters who are extremely interested in the election”, Biden up 15% (55-40)
Wolf job approval: 63%
Biden fav: 55/43 (+12)
Trump fav: 42/56 (-14)

[wbrocks67]

If Biden actually wins by 11 in Pennsylvania, it would be hard to not see him win Ohio as well.

Has Fox released an Ohio poll yet? It'd be interesting to see what the numbers are with this. Also those Minnesota numbers, with all the talk of the protests scaring white suburban voters.

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1286433602151096320