Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

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https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

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https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1350878346918453248?s=20

The quality ads (but not much else) are coming!

Not sure who the crowd here is? There aren’t that many secular conservative voters who are moderate and non populist. Most of them are already voting Sa’ar and a fraction with Bennett. So they’re anti-Trump strategy isn’t applicable here

How do Likud match the definition of populism?

You ever saw their ads? low and shallow, cheap shots, and blaming everyone on being a radical leftist arab lover. plus the electorate is by definition populist

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Channel 12 poll
Likud 30
Saar 15
YA 14
Yamina 13
JL 10
Shas 8
UTJ 8
YB 7
Meretz 6
B&W 5
Huldai 4

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Zalicha 2.4% (who are these people?)
Smotric 1.9%
Labour 1.6%
Gesher 0.7%
JH 0.6%
Jewish Power 0.5%
Senior Citizens 0.5%
Telem 0.4%
Shelah 0.4%


Smotric’s gal won the JH primaries yesterday over Bennett’s pal so I guess now Smotric will unite his party with JH and Ben Gvir. One step closer for him to take over the national religious movement.

Huldai is on the edge. He will have to join forces with Labour and Zalicha (and possibly Shelah but he can do without him). Meretz are planning on running alone. Gesher will join Likud.

From a legal point of view it’s pivotal Gantz remains an MK.

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Channel 12 poll
Likud 30
Saar 15
YA 14
Yamina 13
JL 10
Shas 8
UTJ 8
YB 7
Meretz 6
B&W 5
Huldai 4

——————————————
Zalicha 2.4% (who are these people?)
Smotric 1.9%
Labour 1.6%
Gesher 0.7%
JH 0.6%
Jewish Power 0.5%
Senior Citizens 0.5%
Telem 0.4%
Shelah 0.4%


Smotric’s gal won the JH primaries yesterday over Bennett’s pal so I guess now Smotric will unite his party with JH and Ben Gvir. One step closer for him to take over the national religious movement.

Huldai is on the edge. He will have to join forces with Labour and Zalicha (and possibly Shelah but he can do without him). Meretz are planning on running alone. Gesher will join Likud.

From a legal point of view it’s pivotal Gantz remains an MK.

I realise Otzma may not have much of a choice, but given they got screwed out of Knesset seats in April 2019 are they going to be that eager to get back in to bed with Jewish Home and Tkuma?

No alternative, plus now there won’t be a need to accommodate JH people.

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The news in the Jewish Home is great news for Bibi. The party of fascist religious nuts & nazis will definitely join his government.

Yes, though he should thank the Haredi for it. It's not Bibi they want it's the Haredi in a conservative alliance

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Gotta respect Michaeli. This woman clawed her way through a ton of resistance. She's likely to be the last Labour leader, though

Surely her main priority should be to formally wind the party up as a separate concern.

Her main opponent is some betting magnet Peretz is running against her in order to control the assets.

I think she know the party is dead and will have to be immersed in some new political movement. Wind up of the party and its assets could take years though, the legal complexities are simply massive.

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Zalicha currently polling 1% under the threshold rules out joining forces with anybody. His rationale is clearC only as an independent party leader can he get the chancellor position in coalition talks. But he risks losing ground if he doesn’t start pushing above the threshold in polls.


The Huldai/Labour/Shelah/Telem problem remains unsolved. At least with Shelah I can be confident he drops out if he sees it won’t work

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Sunday funday:
Sami Abu Shada was elected chairman of Balad yesterday ousting current Mtanas Shada (no family connection don't be awkward). The latter will not be a part of the Balad list in any constellation then. Abu Shada was an MK, moderate figure, liberal and sat in Huldai's coalition when he was a councilman in Tel Aviv. Balad moved in 5 years from being ultra-radical to being the Arab Meretz and in some sense less radical than current Hadash makeup.
JL heads will meet today to decide on how they will run

Labour like the Roman Empire whose institutions carried on a century after it fell will hold the leadership primaries today. There are still 38k members but I'll be shocked if turnout will be higher than 20%. Michaeli is the favorite, Peretz is running this gambling magnet for the assets, the rest of the contenders are basically anonymous part for maybe Gil Beilin (son of). A swift merger with Huldai is expected. 

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Apparently some voter suppression in the Labour primary, trying to rig it against Michaeli. Doubt it works

The existence of voter suppression suggests the existence of voters which is quite staggering if true.

Results in less than an hour

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Merav won 77%-19%

Can’t see the turnout anywhere

Edit: turnout was 26%! LoL

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Ch.13 poll:
Likud - 32
Yesh Atid - 18
New Hope - 14
Joint List - 10
Yamina - 10
UTJ - 7
YB - 6
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
B&W - 4
Israelim - 4
LABOUR - 4

Number 1 rule for Israeli polling: your first number will be your best, from there it's downhill (part for Likud)

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Whats Stav Shaffir doing these days?

Taking the piss of Shmuli on Twitter. Pretty funny, she became sassy like Zehava Galon quite young

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Huldai and Michaeli disagree about who should lead the centre left list. Hopefully they work something out:

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/new-labor-leader-merav-michaeli-removing-labor-from-government-656593

Well, Huldai is losing momentum fast, and sadly for him being 2nd isn't an option after leaving his little kingdom "to be PM".

Michaeli is doing some savvy moves atm, opened the Labour primaries for everybody to vote and join (the list looks to be quite to the left), and signaling rejuvenated spirit. She also instructs Shmuli and Peretz to resign from the government (which is good publicity but completely dumb as it's an interim government and she can't force anything on them).

This circle needs to be squared within a week

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Who are the ~2.5% of Israeli voters voting for the New Economic Party?

I also wondered. From a quick research I see some young confused people who liked him in “the silver plate” and don’t care much more for politics. A myriad of boomers who think he sounds like someone who can “fix the economy”. The idiots who religiously opposed the Natural Gas production. Seemed certain to waste 80K votes but he seems to be drawing former Kulanu voters as well

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Smotric added the Sydney Powell of Israel in Simcha Rotman to his list. I am going to make a careful prediction: mergers or not I don't think Smotric is going to pass the threshold.

Joint List is officially breaking up. now it remains to be seen whether it will Ra'am alone and Hadash-Taal-Balad or some other formation.

Labour list primaries on Sunday. expect a very lefty list by Labour standards

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Smotric added the Sydney Powell of Israel in Simcha Rotman to his list. I am going to make a careful prediction: mergers or not I don't think Smotric is going to pass the threshold.

This is a lazy forced comparison to American politics. Rotman has a different opinion than the supreme court regarding the role of the judiciary, he hasn't petitioned the supreme court to cancel the results of elections based on internet conspiracies.

I wasn’t comparing the legal approaches of two lawyers from completely different legal frameworks. I compared two terrible jurists who lack basic understanding of the their respective legal frameworks and their extreme personality (well Rotman is also ignorant in political theory, and lives in an illegal Maachaz, so in a sense he’s even worse).

Rotman’s book is simply pathetic. Terrible understanding of law and flaming internet fools with fictional accounts of the SC. The right has excellent jurists, Rotman is just a populist dumb nut.

Oh and he personally physically threatened an acquaintance of mine who is a civil rights attorney (he’s quite massive IRL).

So yeah, like Powell he’s ignorant, extreme, violent, and populist.

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Soo the Joint List is officially split. Ra'am and Ta'al are both running on their own.

Ta'al will rejoin. Just upping their negotiation with Hadash atm.

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Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

Otzma got 20k votes in round 3, hardly substantial. Round 1 was the big waste in votes.

I think Zalicha burns votes from both blocs. Telem will get a pathetic showing (Ephraim Sneh style). Shelah will either join some union or quit before. So the biggest waste will probably come from the religious right again, and maybe one Arab party.

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Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

Otzma got 20k votes in round 3, hardly substantial. Round 1 was the big waste in votes.

I think Zalicha burns votes from both blocs. Telem will get a pathetic showing (Ephraim Sneh style). Shelah will either join some union or quit before. So the biggest waste will probably come from the religious right again, and maybe one Arab party.

There seem to be four center-to-left parties close to the threshold: Meretz, Labour, Blue&White and The Israelis. Do you think that there will be mergers (e.g. Labour and The Israelis)? Do you think that some might not even run (e.g. Blue&White)? Do you think that all lists that eventually run will cross the threshold? What makes you sure that they will?

Meretz aren't merging. Labour-Huldai will happen (probably with Shelah somewhere low). no one wants Gantz so I think he will run alone and will edge it in with 4 seats, enough boring people and servicemen that will vote for him.

I think all 3 lists will cross the threshold with pitiful tallies (4-5-4). 12-14 seats is a reasonable tally of their combined strength and there's no big party to do a "short squeeze" against Bibi in the end. Saar is too much to the right and too far behind Likud, everyone realizes that a coalition that will form will be without one dominant party.

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I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

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I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

The biggest names are fmr MK Omer Bar Lev, fmr MK Ram Shefa, fmr MK Nahman Shai and arguably Emily Moati and Gilad Kariv who are pretty big on leftist circles. My prediction is something like:
1. Michaeli
2. Bar Lev
3. Shefa
4. Moati (don't see a bigger woman than her running for the second spot in the top 4).

I hope Kariv can pass Shefa but that's just wishcasting.

Hnv- do you see the Israelis staying around at this point? I honestly don't see a point for Labour to merge with this list- Huldai will probably not stay around to be 2nd, and the rest of the list are even more nobodies than Labour's. I'd argue even Ya'alon recruited bigger names than Huldai. At least with Shelah it's just two people who can be placed in relatively low spots.

my careful prediction is Lazimi will finish above Moati.

Hard to tell. I think Michaeli will him and Karin Nahun a spot just to push Eran Hermoni back and have another woman. I definitely think this is the end to vanity personal parties. Huldai did an IPO, the market didn't value his stock highly, he should have took labour instead of starting a new one

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I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

The biggest names are fmr MK Omer Bar Lev, fmr MK Ram Shefa, fmr MK Nahman Shai and arguably Emily Moati and Gilad Kariv who are pretty big on leftist circles. My prediction is something like:
1. Michaeli
2. Bar Lev
3. Shefa
4. Moati (don't see a bigger woman than her running for the second spot in the top 4).

I hope Kariv can pass Shefa but that's just wishcasting.

Hnv- do you see the Israelis staying around at this point? I honestly don't see a point for Labour to merge with this list- Huldai will probably not stay around to be 2nd, and the rest of the list are even more nobodies than Labour's. I'd argue even Ya'alon recruited bigger names than Huldai. At least with Shelah it's just two people who can be placed in relatively low spots.

my careful prediction is Lazimi will finish above Moati.

Hard to tell. I think Michaeli will him and Karin Nahun a spot just to push Eran Hermoni back and have another woman. I definitely think this is the end to vanity personal parties. Huldai did an IPO, the market didn't value his stock highly, he should have took labour instead of starting a new one

Pushing out Hermoni would be good. Idk why but he annoys me.
Also really hope Moati beats Lazimi.

Moati has a lot of admirers, sadly for her most of them aren’t labour members. Lazimi has the old Peretz and Shelly camps behind her, along with some of the old guard. I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s the “second lady”.

Telem drop out. No one cares

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Labour list:
Michaeli
Bar Lev
Moati
Gilad Kariv
Efrat Reiten (not joking)
Ram Shefa

From there unrealistic spots. Michaeli can drop in 2 people in the top 10

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LABOUR PRIMARY RESULTS:
1. Omer Bar Lev
2. Emily Moati
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Rayten (attorney and former children's star)
5. Ram Shefa
6. Ibtisam Mara'ana Menuhin
7. Nachman Shai
8. Naama Lazimi

I voted for places 1-3 and 6

big contrast between 6,7, and 8 lol. Palestinian documentarian, IDF spokesman, LGBT Mizrahi activist

I’m pretty sure Lazimi is a straight woman. I know she just gave birth.

1 former colonel, 2 spokesperson for Balad, reform “Rabbi”, 4 former children starlet.

That’s a motley crew...it will be hard to find the difference with Meretz though atm. Could be a problem for both

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How did the Israelis collapse if they did collapse?

Going into an already crowded field. Huldai staying as mayor and the general discontent with party inflation that followed. I would also point to the fact that Huldai may be a stronger candidate for PM but voters realized he’s not going to be in a position to form a government in any scenario, so then what’s the point?