Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

Does Blue & White have a decent chance of even holding where it is now in a repeat election, or, now that the novelty is gone, are a lot of its voters going to go back to older parties?

They are still the main opposition, so the type of voters that were open to them before are still going to be accessible for B&W. There hasn't been enough time for anyone else to rise or B&W to loose the 'movement' effect I feel. They also have the April results to point to for proof of viability electorally and as policy-wise.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does Blue & White have a decent chance of even holding where it is now in a repeat election, or, now that the novelty is gone, are a lot of its voters going to go back to older parties?

I would imagine that the elections would be run along similar lines, although probably with a much-boosted Arab participation. But we're seeing now how razor-thin the right wing victory in April really was. A few seats either way and you have a revolution or total consolidation of power.

Labor will likely elect a new leader, and that could change the dynamic of the center-left. But I would imagine that Blue and White actually is even more likely to stay at 35 seats than the Likud, who couldn't possibly exceed their April vote unless Kulanu or Bennet or Zehut merged with the Likud, which is unlikely.

[Umengus]

Does Blue & White have a decent chance of even holding where it is now in a repeat election, or, now that the novelty is gone, are a lot of its voters going to go back to older parties?

I would imagine that the elections would be run along similar lines, although probably with a much-boosted Arab participation. But we're seeing now how razor-thin the right wing victory in April really was. A few seats either way and you have a revolution or total consolidation of power.

Labor will likely elect a new leader, and that could change the dynamic of the center-left. But I would imagine that Blue and White actually is even more likely to stay at 35 seats than the Likud, who couldn't possibly exceed their April vote unless Kulanu or Bennet or Zehut merged with the Likud, which is unlikely.

-why likud couldn't possibly exceed their april vote ? why likud voters would vote differently now ?

-the right wasted so much votes due to threshold last time. That could change.

[Hnv1]

A second election is something we hadn't seen yet and voters behavior would be completely unexpected. Also most parties are virtually in massive deficit over the last ones, Labor and Meretz would be forced to run in a joint list. B&W I would suspect hold the same weight. But Likud will grow stronger as Kachlon will merge with it and the New Right won't contest this one.

But again this is uncharted waters.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does Blue & White have a decent chance of even holding where it is now in a repeat election, or, now that the novelty is gone, are a lot of its voters going to go back to older parties?

I would imagine that the elections would be run along similar lines, although probably with a much-boosted Arab participation. But we're seeing now how razor-thin the right wing victory in April really was. A few seats either way and you have a revolution or total consolidation of power.

Labor will likely elect a new leader, and that could change the dynamic of the center-left. But I would imagine that Blue and White actually is even more likely to stay at 35 seats than the Likud, who couldn't possibly exceed their April vote unless Kulanu or Bennet or Zehut merged with the Likud, which is unlikely.

-why likud couldn't possibly exceed their april vote ? why likud voters would vote differently now ?

-the right wasted so much votes due to threshold last time. That could change.

Likud jumped to 35 mandates by gobbling up every right wing vote possible, outside the most ideologically entrenched in the settler parties. He almost squeezed Kulanu out, just as he did the New Right and Zehut. He even won Haredi votes, and a large number of settler votes. None of these are natural Likud voters. So just to get back to 35 mandates the Likud would have to not only maintain its base firing on all cylinders, but it would have to once again dominate the entire right wing electorate.

I think it's totally possible that the smaller right wing parties get across the threshold next time and that the right ends up with more than 65 mandates. But that will help with a weakened Likud.

Also, Netanyahu promised before the last election to not pursue an immunity law. Right after the election we then spent most of the last two months talking exactly that, which was finally given up due to internal opposition in the Likud. Of even 3 percent of voters flip due to opposition to the immunity law, that's a huge difference in terms of the overall makeup of the next Knesset.

[Walmart_shopper]

It is sounding at this point from various media reports that if the Haredim climb down from the Eucalyptus then elections can be avoided, but barring that everyone believes that new elections will be called. There is even talk about those new elections being called as soon as tomorrow.

While it seems unbelievable to me that the Haredim would actually pass up the sweet deal they have now for new elections, they don't appear ready to compromise at all (ergo, new elections are likely). I actually wonder if the immunity law is part of this calculation. Both Haredi party leaders and Bibi will be indicted within the next year, all on very serious (prison-worthy charges.A broad immunity law covering Bibi and all MKs would need at least 70 votes to pass (given internal opposition in the Likud, and broad public opposition). New elections may be all that's left to keep these people out of jail.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Likud claims to be working furiously towards an agreement between Liberman and the Haredim, noting that both sides have already agreed about the majority of issues surrounding religion and state and even the thorny
 draft law. Plenty of people still believe that the coalition crisis is a ruse and that within a couple days all parties will announce an agreement and the hard work of obliterating whatever democracy existed in Israel will continue in earnest. Maybe that's true, but Netanyahu also announced today that in the event of new elections Kulanu would run with the Likud on a joint list. Maybe it's just me but I actually think that could hurt the right. I don't think it will automatically add Kulanu's four mandates to the Likud in a totally reciprocal way. I'd it only adds, say, two mandates, then the Likud is boosted to 37, but the right loses mandates overall.

Blue and White said that they would oppose any motion to go straight to new elections and would try to get a crack at forming a coalition themselves instead. It's not clear whether that would sink any motion to dissolve the Knesset. It would be darkly ironic if Blue and White's political game-playing prevented new elections and in some meaningful way for ed the formation of a far right government. There are already 60 votes, and probably 65 with Liberman, against any other head of government. While the law does allow a new person to form the government if Netanyahu fails, it will be a ridiculous formality that will simply push new elections off by several weeks. If Gantz and company want to form a new government themselves then they should go to elections and campaign like a true oppositional party, take meaningful and bold positions on pressing issues, and actually try to win an election instead of hoping to ride some fictional anti-Bibi wave to a fictional victory.

[Hnv1]

The Likud claims to be working furiously towards an agreement between Liberman and the Haredim, noting that both sides have already agreed about the majority of issues surrounding religion and state and even the thorny
 draft law. Plenty of people still believe that the coalition crisis is a ruse and that within a couple days all parties will announce an agreement and the hard work of obliterating whatever democracy existed in Israel will continue in earnest.. Aybe that's true, but Netanyahu also announced today that in the event of new elections Kulanu would run with the Likud on a joint list. Maybe it's just me but I actually think that could hurt the right. I don't think it will automatically add Kulanu's four mandates to the Likud in a totally reciprocal way. I'd it only adds, say, two mandates, then the Likud is boosted to 37, but the right loses mandates overall.

Money money money.

Most parties are in bad financial state, another election will see the New Right sit this one out and most of those votes will drift to Bibi. I also doubt Zehut could run again

[Hnv1]

Likud are planning to vote on dissolution of the Knesset by Wednesday to avoid the option that the president will give the option to form a government to someone else. I wonder if they'll have the majority (technically 60 is not enough), and I wonder if the SC could stop it (they are basically overriding the rules of the Basic Law).

Anyhow, it's confirmed Kulano will run together with Likud (which means they are probably merging anyhow).

[DavidB.]

Likud are planning to vote on dissolution of the Knesset by Wednesday to avoid the option that the president will give the option to form a government to someone else. I wonder if they'll have the majority (technically 60 is not enough), and I wonder if the SC could stop it (they are basically overriding the rules of the Basic Law).

Anyhow, it's confirmed Kulano will run together with Likud (which means they are probably merging anyhow).

I've remained skeptical all this time (deadlines in Israeli politics are always met at the latest hour) - do you think this snap election is actually happening now?

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud are planning to vote on dissolution of the Knesset by Wednesday to avoid the option that the president will give the option to form a government to someone else. I wonder if they'll have the majority (technically 60 is not enough), and I wonder if the SC could stop it (they are basically overriding the rules of the Basic Law).

Anyhow, it's confirmed Kulano will run together with Likud (which means they are probably merging anyhow).

I've remained skeptical all this time (deadlines in Israeli politics are always met at the latest hour) - do you think this snap election is actually happening now?

A bill has been filed to dissolve the Knesset tomorrow. All of this might be a gimmick, but what's not a joke is how badly Liberman wants to get rid of Netanyahu once and for all. Here's his chance to possibly do so and do it on an issue that has enormous public support (stopping Haredi influence on politics and draft-dodging). Take from that what you want.

[Oryxslayer]

Likud are planning to vote on dissolution of the Knesset by Wednesday to avoid the option that the president will give the option to form a government to someone else. I wonder if they'll have the majority (technically 60 is not enough), and I wonder if the SC could stop it (they are basically overriding the rules of the Basic Law).

Anyhow, it's confirmed Kulano will run together with Likud (which means they are probably merging anyhow).

I've remained skeptical all this time (deadlines in Israeli politics are always met at the latest hour) - do you think this snap election is actually happening now?

I think Lieberman has committed to this play. He sees the low opinion of the Haredi parties by the rest of the nation, and the potential dominance of Likud (+Kulanu, and ruled by Bibi) if the current parliament forms a all-right govt, and recognizes that if new elections are called on his terms than he has an opportunity to surge, picking up anti-Haredi voters fr Likud.

[Hnv1]

Likud are planning to vote on dissolution of the Knesset by Wednesday to avoid the option that the president will give the option to form a government to someone else. I wonder if they'll have the majority (technically 60 is not enough), and I wonder if the SC could stop it (they are basically overriding the rules of the Basic Law).

Anyhow, it's confirmed Kulano will run together with Likud (which means they are probably merging anyhow).

I've remained skeptical all this time (deadlines in Israeli politics are always met at the latest hour) - do you think this snap election is actually happening now?

"It's raining but I don't believe it's raining"

this is how I feel, we're going into gear but I still can't believe this absurdity will happen. That's too much of a gamble for everybody, surely someone will have to chicken out.

Anyway Liberman has all the cards now. If he opposes the the dissolution bill the president can give someone else the option to form a government, I'm almost certain Bibi will feint if that happens

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud are planning to vote on dissolution of the Knesset by Wednesday to avoid the option that the president will give the option to form a government to someone else. I wonder if they'll have the majority (technically 60 is not enough), and I wonder if the SC could stop it (they are basically overriding the rules of the Basic Law).

Anyhow, it's confirmed Kulano will run together with Likud (which means they are probably merging anyhow).

I've remained skeptical all this time (deadlines in Israeli politics are always met at the latest hour) - do you think this snap election is actually happening now?

"It's raining but I don't believe it's raining"

this is how I feel, we're going into gear but I still can't believe this absurdity will happen. That's too much of a gamble for everybody, surely someone will have to chicken out.

Anyway Liberman has all the cards now. If he opposes the the dissolution bill the president can give someone else the option to form a government, I'm almost certain Bibi will feint if that happens

Hadash Taal announced their support for the dissolution bill, so that should be enough to pass it. The Likud says they're pushing for new elections precisely to prevent another persson getting the chance to form a coalition, and I suspect that pretty much everyone except for Blue and White would be happy to go to elections at this point (and frankly I think Blue and White is foolish to oppose them).

Liberman remains firmly perched atop the Eucalyptus, but if there is a hill worth dying on in Israeli politics secularism is pretty much the strongest hill you can possibly choose, so he's in a very good place politically.

[Hnv1]

Likud are planning to vote on dissolution of the Knesset by Wednesday to avoid the option that the president will give the option to form a government to someone else. I wonder if they'll have the majority (technically 60 is not enough), and I wonder if the SC could stop it (they are basically overriding the rules of the Basic Law).

Anyhow, it's confirmed Kulano will run together with Likud (which means they are probably merging anyhow).

I've remained skeptical all this time (deadlines in Israeli politics are always met at the latest hour) - do you think this snap election is actually happening now?

"It's raining but I don't believe it's raining"

this is how I feel, we're going into gear but I still can't believe this absurdity will happen. That's too much of a gamble for everybody, surely someone will have to chicken out.

Anyway Liberman has all the cards now. If he opposes the the dissolution bill the president can give someone else the option to form a government, I'm almost certain Bibi will feint if that happens

Hadash Taal announced their support for the dissolution bill, so that should be enough to pass it. The Likud says they're pushing for new elections precisely to prevent another persson getting the chance to form a coalition, and I suspect that pretty much everyone except for Blue and White would be happy to go to elections at this point (and frankly I think Blue and White is foolish to oppose them).

Liberman remains firmly perched atop the Eucalyptus, but if there is a hill worth dying on in Israeli politics secularism is pretty much the strongest hill you can possibly choose, so he's in a very good place politically.

No one has any reason to want a second election when you can't predict the voters behavior. Turnout will be a massive issue, and there will be unpredictable upshot to bothering voters twice in a year. The average David doesn't like politics too much and having 9 months of non stop politics will annoy him. And don't forget there will be an incapacitated interim government meanwhile. If there's a war in Gaza in the summer we'll have an interim cabinet consisting of Bibi by himself, Shaked and Bennet will not have the legitimacy to take part.

Everybody's playing with fire here.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud are planning to vote on dissolution of the Knesset by Wednesday to avoid the option that the president will give the option to form a government to someone else. I wonder if they'll have the majority (technically 60 is not enough), and I wonder if the SC could stop it (they are basically overriding the rules of the Basic Law).

Anyhow, it's confirmed Kulano will run together with Likud (which means they are probably merging anyhow).

I've remained skeptical all this time (deadlines in Israeli politics are always met at the latest hour) - do you think this snap election is actually happening now?

"It's raining but I don't believe it's raining"

this is how I feel, we're going into gear but I still can't believe this absurdity will happen. That's too much of a gamble for everybody, surely someone will have to chicken out.

Anyway Liberman has all the cards now. If he opposes the the dissolution bill the president can give someone else the option to form a government, I'm almost certain Bibi will feint if that happens

Hadash Taal announced their support for the dissolution bill, so that should be enough to pass it. The Likud says they're pushing for new elections precisely to prevent another persson getting the chance to form a coalition, and I suspect that pretty much everyone except for Blue and White would be happy to go to elections at this point (and frankly I think Blue and White is foolish to oppose them).

Liberman remains firmly perched atop the Eucalyptus, but if there is a hill worth dying on in Israeli politics secularism is pretty much the strongest hill you can possibly choose, so he's in a very good place politically.

No one has any reason to want a second election when you can't predict the voters behavior. Turnout will be a massive issue, and there will be unpredictable upshot to bothering voters twice in a year. The average David doesn't like politics too much and having 9 months of non stop politics will annoy him. And don't forget there will be an incapacitated interim government meanwhile. If there's a war in Gaza in the summer we'll have an interim cabinet consisting of Bibi by himself, Shaked and Bennet will not have the legitimacy to take part.

Everybody's playing with fire here.

No, I actually think that most parties don't actually have much to lose, especially with the threat of existentially shattering legislation being proposed. Which is exactly why the opposition, who has literally nothing left to lose, would support elections. It's not like Labor could do worse than April. Arab parties want new elections because their April turnout was their floor and the ceiling is quite a bit higher. And if there is one group that never gets tired of politics, it's the Haredim, who literally believe that their vote is a divine mandate. So the only party who is playing with fire is Likud, and more specifically Netanyahu. The risk to his power and even freedom is enormous. But that's why Liberman can't help himself here.  Liberman has stuck the knife in at last and he's probably enjoying every moment of this. Why would he let go?

[Walmart_shopper]

It's hard to see new elections being avoided at this point. Netanyahu had floated a new draft law that he summoned  party leaders to discuss tonight. Liberman says he isn't coming and has nothing to discuss. So that seems to be that.

So many moving parts here. The alleged Lapid-Liberman meeting in Vienna. Bibi's 3 month extension for his indictment hearing, which will now take place in October AFTER new elections in September. It's hard to know who is orchestrating what, exactly, but this whole thing feels pretty scripted.

[Hnv1]

It's hard to see new elections being avoided at this point. Netanyahu had floated a new draft law that he summoned  party leaders to discuss tonight. Liberman says he isn't coming and has nothing to discuss. So that seems to be that.

So many moving parts here. The alleged Lapid-Liberman meeting in Vienna. Bibi's 3 month extension for his indictment hearing, which will now take place in October AFTER new elections in September. It's hard to know who is orchestrating what, exactly, but this whole thing feels pretty scripted.

Liberman is surely not acting because he cares so much about the draft law, but I still can't see the plan here. If it was to get Bibi out why not announce that you're going to vote against the dissolution and put pressure on everyone in the opposition to object to it and force Bibi out of office like that. What the end game here for him with a new election cycle? YB aren't going to be bigger than 6

[Walmart_shopper]

It's hard to see new elections being avoided at this point. Netanyahu had floated a new draft law that he summoned  party leaders to discuss tonight. Liberman says he isn't coming and has nothing to discuss. So that seems to be that.

So many moving parts here. The alleged Lapid-Liberman meeting in Vienna. Bibi's 3 month extension for his indictment hearing, which will now take place in October AFTER new elections in September. It's hard to know who is orchestrating what, exactly, but this whole thing feels pretty scripted.

Liberman is surely not acting because he cares so much about the draft law, but I still can't see the plan here. If it was to get Bibi out why not announce that you're going to vote against the dissolution and put pressure on everyone in the opposition to object to it and force Bibi out of office like that. What the end game here for him with a new election cycle? YB aren't going to be bigger than 6

I can't really figure it out, either. It's possible that seeing that he didn't have enough support for his immunity law Bibi decided to try again for a 70+ MK coalition.  That's my only hunch. At this point the entirety of the political system is already revolving around Bibi's looming prison sentence, so why not a new election on whether he ought to serve that sentence? Or maybe Liberman simply wants a shot at taking Bibi out that doesn't hinge on 60 seats (a fifth of which are Arab parties). If Blue and White win the next election he can feel better about demanding a new Likudnik pm or recommending Gantz to the president.

[Walmart_shopper]

Today the Knesset will vote on the first of three readings for a bill to dissolve the Knesset and go to elections. It should pass easily and will be supported  by Liberman, who is basically set against any possible compromise at this point. New elections will likely be at the end of August

Naftali Bennett announced that the New Right will run,in the new elections and it is unclear whether that will include Ayelet Shaked, who was rumored to be considering running with Liberman but has since denied those rumors. The Arab parties are likely to once again run as a joint list, which would probably instantly net a few extra mandates for the left. They ate meeting tonight to formalize that.

[Hnv1]

They should be held legally accountable for wasting so much public money.

Beats me where NR will get the money for another run, but I feel they will pass this time around

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Truly this is the Age of Banter.

[DavidB.]

Apparently YB wants to postpone the vote on dissolving the Knesset till tomorrow. A negotiating tactic after all?

[Walmart_shopper]

They should be held legally accountable for wasting so much public money.

Beats me where NR will get the money for another run, but I feel they will pass this time around

I'm fine with it.

[Walmart_shopper]

Apparently YB wants to postpone the vote on dissolving the Knesset till tomorrow. A negotiating tactic after all?

The Knesset is voting right now for the dissolution bill. It requires a third reading, so this isn't the end, but there is no delay.

Update: the dissolution bill passed.