Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[danny]

Votes are still being counted but New Right is now above the threshold.

[Oryxslayer]

Votes are still being counted but New Right is now above the threshold.

They are presently 600 votes over, if there are any more votes left...

[Walmart_shopper]

Votes are still being counted but New Right is now above the threshold.

They are presently 600 votes over, if there are any more votes left...

There are still about 20,000 overseas and soldiers votes.  So it probably depends on how much of those are overseas and how much are military.

[Walmart_shopper]

If the New Right does get in then the right bloc will have 67 votes. I don't think Netanyahu at all wants Naftali Bennet in the Knesset, but I so think it will give him some cover in coalition negotiations. The Kahanist Alliance is demanding 5hat Ben Gvir be allowed into the Knesset after they take the hugely important Education and Justice ministries.

[DavidB.]

I'm reading NR ultimately won't get in and Meretz will win a seat from UTJ, which means it's 64-56 and Netanyahu needs Kulanu.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm reading NR ultimately won't get in and Meretz will win a seat from UTJ, which means it's 64-56 and Netanyahu needs Kulanu.

This is pretty much the final result, it seems. Raam Balad also made it in, which is incredibly surprising to me. Meretz says that it was the Arab vote for them which saved the party from collapse.

Netanyahu needs Kulanu, Yisrael Beitenu, and the settlers. The last government fell apart after Liberman got sick of the Haredim and left the coalition. There's an obvious right wing majority on security issues in Israel. But at the same time the public is growing more hostile towards the Haredim (who collectively garnered less than 13 percent of the vote this week). At some point people will get so tired of the influence of religion on government and the Haredi parties that they turn on secular parties like Yisrael Beitenu and the Likud. With only 64 seats this time it's not a cozy majority and that by itself will probably make this Knesset less uniformly right wing.

[Walmart_shopper]

There is also a lot of talk about Kulanu actually merging with the Likud. Given that ideologically they are utterly indistinguishable, that seems logical. I wonder if at some point soon parts of the Likud begin to smell Bibi's blood in the water given his likely trial and form a faction behind Gideon Saar.

[Hnv1]

New Right are demanding a recount of the double envelopes. Threatening to appeal to the SC (the irony failed to reach them).

considering how small the margin is I think it would be fair to do a partial recount.

[DavidB.]

New Right are demanding a recount of the double envelopes. Threatening to appeal to the SC (the irony failed to reach them).

considering how small the margin is I think it would be fair to do a partial recount.

LOL! And I don't. It's going to be close either way, no way to know a recount is more accurate than the first count. I wanted Bennett and Shaked to do well, but they didn't and should suck it up.

The threshold really f**ked over the right this time, as expected of course. NR and Zehut actually got 6 or 7 seats together. From that point of view, 64 Knesset seats is a solid result (though not extraordinary).

With only 64 seats this time it's not a cozy majority and that by itself will probably make this Knesset less uniformly right wing.

Kulanu now having more leverage should make the government less right-wing, at least until they merge with Likud (which I expected all along).

On the other hand, Bennett being out could actually make the government more right-wing as URP can claim more influence. It also helps that Netanyahu "only" needs the Haredim, YB, URP and Kulanu and not two more parties, because Likud tends to pit its coalition parties against each other to prevent the status-quo from changing (which is essentially the Likud agenda). With fewer partners, URP (and YB) can demand more.

[DavidB.]

Seems as if the prognosis has changed again. Likud and Kulanu pick up another seat, Meretz doesn't get one after all, and UTJ and URP lose one. It would be as follows:

Likud 36, KL 35, Shas 8, UTJ 7, Hadash-Ta'al 6, Labour 6, YB 5, Kulanu 5, URP 4, Meretz 4, Balad-Ra'am 4.

Of course Likud would then have 35 seats and URP 5 because of the Ben Dahan arrangement. In this case it would be 65-55 after all, but Kulanu would still be needed.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Seems as if the prognosis has changed again. Likud and Kulanu pick up another seat, Meretz doesn't get one after all, and UTJ and URP lose one. It would be as follows:

Likud 36, KL 35, Shas 8, UTJ 7, Hadash-Ta'al 6, Labour 6, YB 5, Kulanu 5, URP 4, Meretz 4, Balad-Ra'am 4.

Of course Likud would then have 35 seats and URP 5 because of the Ben Dahan arrangement. In this case it would be 65-55 after all, but Kulanu would still be needed.

Overall good result in my book. Ben Gvir is kept out if the URWP are at 4, and Kulanu is the lesser evil in that government. Kinda disappointed Ali Salalha (Meretz no. 5) doesn't get in, but oh well.

[Walmart_shopper]

Seems as if the prognosis has changed again. Likud and Kulanu pick up another seat, Meretz doesn't get one after all, and UTJ and URP lose one. It would be as follows:

Likud 36, KL 35, Shas 8, UTJ 7, Hadash-Ta'al 6, Labour 6, YB 5, Kulanu 5, URP 4, Meretz 4, Balad-Ra'am 4.

Of course Likud would then have 35 seats and URP 5 because of the Ben Dahan arrangement. In this case it would be 65-55 after all, but Kulanu would still be needed.

Overall good result in my book. Ben Gvir is kept out if the URWP are at 4, and Kulanu is the lesser evil in that government. Kinda disappointed Ali Salalha (Meretz no. 5) doesn't get in, but oh well.

Yeah, I mean, when you accept the fact that Israel is a right wing nationalist country that is growing more and not less right wing, it's possible to look at the glass as half full despite the fact that in a normal country Bibi wouldn't have been re-elected and Haredim wouldn't be in charge of the government. The majority is thin, it is without ideologues like Bennet and Shaked, and I'm extremely excited that Balaad got in because there are so many interesting Arab leaders in both Arab parties that could really transform the way the Arab sector does politics. It would have been a shame for them to have been left out. It's notable that had Arabs not actually boycotted the election the blocs would basically be tied. And if Arabs actually voted at the rates Jews do the right wouldn't have a majority. I understand the boycott, though I don't think it's a hugely great idea, but it's worth pointing out that while most voters are right wing most Israelis are not. The problem is that any so-called silent majority is just a consolation prize for political losers if people don't vote.

Also, I think the country is getting more and not less secular and that Bibi will be forced to resign in a year. So the future is probably a lot more interesting than it seems today.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm not paying attention to this crap anymore.

When the final results come out, can someone be sure to write FINAL RESULTS in all caps so I know to start paying attention again?

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, Gabbay will be gone by next week. Labor is my political home and it's been amazing to watch a one-time right winger posing/running as a leftist (Gabbay) and then a leftist posing/running as a right winger (Gantz) decimate the Israeli center left. I have no clue why Itzhik Shmuley or Stav haven't been given a shot at leadership yet. Labor does need to re-brand itself as modern, youthful, forward-thinking, and serious. But why anyone thought Avi Gabbay was the guy to do that is beyond me.

[DavidB.]

Correct answers were:

Final turnout percentage up or down from 2015? Down
Biggest party across the country? Likud
Biggest party in Jerusalem? Likud
Biggest party in Rishon LeTziyon? KL
Blue and White under or over 34% in Tel Aviv? Over (46%)
Top-3 in Itamar? (bonus point for correct order) URP, Zehut, New Right. Map and official result erroneously has Hadash-Ta'al in second place and Zehut at 0%, but I asked a friend of mine who lives there and verified it. Zehut would have 0 votes according to the result, but this guy actually voted for them. Hadash-Ta'al getting like 12% in Itamar was too weird to be true.
New Right under or over 10% in Ma'ale Adumim? Under (7%)
Likud under or over 25% in Jerusalem? Under, actually: 24.7%.
Biggest party in Daliyat-al-Karmel? KL, 48%. Kulanu came second with 13%.
Better Zehut score in Jerusalem or in Tel Aviv? Jerusalem. 2.7% in J'lem, 2% in TLV.
Gap between Likud and B&W under or over 25 points in Beersheva? Over. Likud got 43.01%, KL 17.49% which is a gap of 25.52%.
URWP under or over 50% in Kiryat Arba? Under: 46%.
Zehut under or over 15% in the stoner settlement of Tekoa? Under: 13%. If they had been in the Knesset, they would have gotten more than 15% in Tekoa too.
First four parties in Haifa? (bonus point for correct order) KL, Likud, YB, Labour
Likud under or over 50% in Beit She'an? Over: 55%.
YB under or over 15% in Ma'alot Tarsicha? Over: 17%.
Labour under or over 14% in Herzliya? Under: 6.7%.
Better Zehut score in Sderot or Ra'anana? Sderot: 4.4% in Sderot, 2.4% in Raanana.
Shas under or over 8% in Kiryat Gat? Over: 11%.
B&W under or over 35% in Modi'in-Maccabim-Reut? Over: 42%.

Congratulations to LibertarianRepublican, who had the best prediction and won 11 points (20 questions, 22 points was the max). Danny and I got 10, WalmartShopper and Parrotguy got 8.

[Oryxslayer]

Kulanu merging into Likud would certainly lend the latter credibility, depending on how those last votes come, B&W and Likud could still be tied. Gives Likud a better mandate as the largest party. However given the right wing 'jumps' to Likud pre-election, and now Kulanu's merger post-election, Likud might be getting a little fat on personalities. Are they expecting a cut of Likuds success, or are they expecting a internal party war?

[Hnv1]

Kulanu merging into Likud would certainly lend the latter credibility, depending on how those last votes come, B&W and Likud could still be tied. Gives Likud a better mandate as the largest party. However given the right wing 'jumps' to Likud pre-election, and now Kulanu's merger post-election, Likud might be getting a little fat on personalities. Are they expecting a cut of Likuds success, or are they expecting a internal party war?

If Kachlon and Kulano are basically Likud MKs they will have to follow party lines on immunity law votes.

[DC Al Fine]

New Right are demanding a recount of the double envelopes. Threatening to appeal to the SC (the irony failed to reach them).

considering how small the margin is I think it would be fair to do a partial recount.

LOL! And I don't. It's going to be close either way, no way to know a recount is more accurate than the first count. I wanted Bennett and Shaked to do well, but they didn't and should suck it up.

The threshold really f**ked over the right this time, as expected of course. NR and Zehut actually got 6 or 7 seats together. From that point of view, 64 Knesset seats is a solid result (though not extraordinary).

With only 64 seats this time it's not a cozy majority and that by itself will probably make this Knesset less uniformly right wing.

Kulanu now having more leverage should make the government less right-wing, at least until they merge with Likud (which I expected all along).

On the other hand, Bennett being out could actually make the government more right-wing as URP can claim more influence. It also helps that Netanyahu "only" needs the Haredim, YB, URP and Kulanu and not two more parties, because Likud tends to pit its coalition parties against each other to prevent the status-quo from changing (which is essentially the Likud agenda). With fewer partners, URP (and YB) can demand more.

What would URP and YB demand from Likud? How about the Haredi?

[Walmart_shopper]

Kulanu merging into Likud would certainly lend the latter credibility, depending on how those last votes come, B&W and Likud could still be tied. Gives Likud a better mandate as the largest party. However given the right wing 'jumps' to Likud pre-election, and now Kulanu's merger post-election, Likud might be getting a little fat on personalities. Are they expecting a cut of Likuds success, or are they expecting a internal party war?

If Kachlon and Kulano are basically Likud MKs they will have to follow party lines on immunity law votes.

True. But I am not sure they can get all 36 Likud MKs on board for that. In any case,  I'd be shocked if that passes and Bagatz doesn't stop it.

[Hnv1]

Kulanu merging into Likud would certainly lend the latter credibility, depending on how those last votes come, B&W and Likud could still be tied. Gives Likud a better mandate as the largest party. However given the right wing 'jumps' to Likud pre-election, and now Kulanu's merger post-election, Likud might be getting a little fat on personalities. Are they expecting a cut of Likuds success, or are they expecting a internal party war?

If Kachlon and Kulano are basically Likud MKs they will have to follow party lines on immunity law votes.

True. But I am not sure they can get all 36 Likud MKs on board for that. In any case,  I'd be shocked if that passes and Bagatz doesn't stop it.

Tricky. It's not exactly unconstitutional, retrospective legislation (it's not retroactive) is deemed reasonable if it benefits someone and doesn't infringe on rights.

[DavidB.]

Looking at the Haredi results by municipality and neighborhood: it seems they not only benefited from a turnout increase but also absorbed a lot of the Yachad 2015 vote, who would have gotten 3 or even 4 seats without the threshold last time. I had kind of assumed (wrongly) that Yachad votes would transfer directly to URP. But it also makes sense, because Yachad had the sort of Haredi teudat kashrut that URP lacked. My Hardal acquaintances all voted Yachad last time and were pretty split between UTJ and URP this time.

[Hnv1]

Looking at the Haredi results by municipality and neighborhood: it seems they not only benefited from a turnout increase but also absorbed a lot of the Yachad 2015 vote, who would have gotten 3 or even 4 seats without the threshold last time. I had kind of assumed (wrongly) that Yachad votes would transfer directly to URP. But it also makes sense, because Yachad had the sort of Haredi teudat kashrut that URP lacked. My Hardal acquaintances all voted Yachad last time and were pretty split between UTJ and URP this time.

UTJ hardly changed. Shas increased and that’s the municipal apparatus with the French Moroccans

[DavidB.]

Shas netted only 17k votes (from 241k to 257k), UTJ almost 40k votes (from 210k to 247k). Had small but relevant increases in all their strongholds - perhaps partly due to differential turnout and partly due to natural growth of the base, but they definitely won over some Yachad support too.

[Oryxslayer]

New vote totals on govt site. New right .03% Under.

[DavidB.]

Called it:

Stupid decision. No Likud voter is suddenly going to vote for Bennett now. People who hated JH's Orthodox identity aren't voting for Bennett anyway. All this does is break up everything to the right of Likud. Bennett and Shaked should have waited for Bibi to leave, which he will one day. This is bad news.

The good thing is that the more right-wing remainder of the Jewish Home will probably still get in, which means there will finally be a real right-wing opposition party for the first time since the 2013 election. Supporting them now.