Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Estrella]

Peru is Latin American Florida. Change my mind.

Castillo is, for all his innumerable faults, an incomparably more HIGH ENERGY figure than anyone Florida Dems could provide.

[Oryxslayer]

Ica is finally counting.

88.9% overall (92.1% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 50.5% (47.3%)
Pedro Castillo 49.5% (46.4%)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does that make Keiko the reverse Rick Scott?

I guess.

Peru is Latin American Florida. Change my mind.

Castillo is, for all his innumerable faults, an incomparably more HIGH ENERGY figure than anyone Florida Dems could provide.

Fair point.

[Red Velvet]

This is on the trend to end 50,2% for Castillo without the foreign votes, if no surprises happen. Keiko wins on the photo finish?

[Lord Halifax]

This is on the trend to end 50,2% for Castillo without the foreign votes, if no surprises happen. Keiko wins on the photo finish?

How big is the foreign vote?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Peru is Latin American Florida. Change my mind.

Castillo is, for all his innumerable faults, an incomparably more HIGH ENERGY figure than anyone Florida Dems could provide.

He ran a terrible campagin, looking at his polling numbers at the start of the runoff campagin which showed him with huge leads to this incredibly narrow finish it's clear he bled support. He wasn't able to ditch his image of being an Authoriatrain Chavista which would have been much easier given that he's not a very defined figure.

[Sestak]

If 50.2 is the final mark domestically then Fujimori will probably take it. Castillo most likely wants to be at least at 50.4 or 5.

[Niemeyerite]

I think Castillo will be at 50.4 of the domestic vote when it's all counted. Then that may give us a 50-50 result when the foreign vote comes in. All in all, this is 2016 all over again and I'm just hoping Keiko loses by an even narrower margin.

[Sestak]

Update: 89.5% in, 50.42-49.58


Around 0.08-0.09 gained from around 0.6%

Ica added around 5% from that update. Cusco around 1%.

[Red Velvet]

I think Castillo will be at 50.4 of the domestic vote when it's all counted. Then that may give us a 50-50 result when the foreign vote comes in. All in all, this is 2016 all over again and I'm just hoping Keiko loses by an even narrower margin.

I’m not sure Castillo will keep the same large growth trend until the very end. Most of what he needs is in Cusco and that’s already 81% in, even if he’ll probably still make some good gains. I think he will keep growing more modestly.

I am guessing he wins in Peru by a small margin but loses overall because of all the US vote still to come in.

[Sestak]

I think Castillo will be at 50.4 of the domestic vote when it's all counted. Then that may give us a 50-50 result when the foreign vote comes in. All in all, this is 2016 all over again and I'm just hoping Keiko loses by an even narrower margin.

I’m not sure Castillo will keep the same large growth trend until the very end. Most of what he needs is in Cusco and that’s already 81% in, even if he’ll probably still make some good gains. I think he will keep growing more modestly.

I am guessing he wins in Peru by a small margin but loses overall because of all the US vote still to come in.

The results that have come on over the last few updates have not been disproportionately from Cusco, though.

At the 86.5% update Cusco was at 77.3%. So nationally 4% of the vote was added, while from Cusco 4.5%. Given how far behind the national number Cusco is, that means it has actually been increasing as a share of the remaining vote out.

Ofc could still go either way. But the growth trends Castillo needs to hit now don't look as superhuman as they did a few updates back.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Castillo will be at 50.4 of the domestic vote when it's all counted. Then that may give us a 50-50 result when the foreign vote comes in. All in all, this is 2016 all over again and I'm just hoping Keiko loses by an even narrower margin.

I’m not sure Castillo will keep the same large growth trend until the very end. Most of what he needs is in Cusco and that’s already 81% in, even if he’ll probably still make some good gains. I think he will keep growing more modestly.

I am guessing he wins in Peru by a small margin but loses overall because of all the US vote still to come in.

The results that have come on over the last few updates have not been disproportionately from Cusco, though.

At the 86.5% update Cusco was at 77.3%. So nationally 4% of the vote was added, while from Cusco 4.5%. Given how far behind the national number Cusco is, that means it has actually been increasing as a share of the remaining vote out.

Ofc could still go either way. But the growth trends Castillo needs to hit now don't look as superhuman as they did a few updates back.

Then there is the remaining vote from Loreto...that could be decisive in shifting the results in Castillo's favor, right? (Alongside Cusco, ofc)

[Sestak]

Update: 90.04% in, 50.353-49.647

Castillo gains 0.067 from 0.54% of the vote.

No Cusco in this update.

[Oryxslayer]

90.05% overall (93.32% country, 11.1% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 50.35% (47.2%)
Pedro Castillo 49.65% (46.5%)

Largest total basket of votes may now be Loredo at 80-90K. These arn't however going to be anything like the south if we use the first round as a guide, and will probably be a good but not national-narrowing margins. Whoever wins here won't net very many votes from the department as a whole.

[jamestroll]

I know its a off topic but Cusco is a damn beautiful area. Never will regret visiting there.

[Sestak]

If the rate continues at 0.1/1% exactly from now on (which he's been beating for many updates straight now minus the one big Ica dump) then Castillo will be over 50.3 after all domestics are in.

Starting to think he's got a very good shot at taking this; might be a slight favorite (!)

[jaichind]

In CUSCO it seems it is La Convención is the province that has zero vote counted.  Looking at the % of La Convención's population that speaks Spanish you would expect the result there to be more like Urubamba which is 87-13.  Looking at other provinces in CUSCO one would expect around 100K votes here so Castillo  should gain around 74K which is 3/4 of the 100K gap in Peru between the two candidates.

[Mike88]

If the rate continues at 0.1/1% exactly from now on (which he's been beating for many updates straight now minus the one big Ica dump) then Castillo will be over 50.3 after all domestics are in.

Starting to think he's got a very good shot at taking this; might be a slight favorite (!)

I believe all depends on the turnout in the overseas vote. In the first round, it was just 22.8%. Now, with 11.1% counted is at 39.8%. There's still a lot of big places to count like the US, which could decrease the turnout rate, but if the overseas vote turnout holds on at 39%, Fujimori could win around 177,000 votes and Castillo around 83,000, again, if the projected 68-32% margin overseas holds up. This is just an "analysis" and could be wrong, but everything is very, very close.

[Sestak]

If the rate continues at 0.1/1% exactly from now on (which he's been beating for many updates straight now minus the one big Ica dump) then Castillo will be over 50.3 after all domestics are in.

Starting to think he's got a very good shot at taking this; might be a slight favorite (!)

I believe all depends on the turnout in the overseas vote. In the first round, it was just 22.8%. Now, with 11.1% counted is at 39.8%. There's still a lot of big places to count like the US, which could decrease the turnout rate, but if the overseas vote turnout holds on at 39%, Fujimori could win around 177,000 votes and Castillo around 83,000, again, if the projected 68-32% margin overseas holds up. This is just an "analysis" and could be wrong, but everything is very, very close.

I've been operating under the assumption that Fujimori will gain ~100K votes from expats after all of the domestic vote is in. If this is accurate, then the benchmark Castillo needs before that happens is around 50.3-50.4. Which I think he has a decently good shot at hitting.

Of course, the expat vote remaining could potentially be more than that - but also could be less.

[Sestak]

Update: 90.48% in, 50.321-49.679

Castillo gains 0.032 from 0.43.

Ica jumped 6%. Cusco by 0.3% and Lareto not at all.


Not a good update for Castillo but given what moved there, might be on track still.

[Sestak]

Update: 90.97% in, 50.271-49.729

Castillo gains 0.05 from 0.49.

Ica jumped again by around 7%. Cusco by around 1%. Lareto around 2%.

A little better for Castillo.

[Sestak]

Areas under 85% in:

Amazonas 84%, 64-36 Castillo
Ayacucho 77%, 82-18 Castillo
Cusco 83%, 83-17 Castillo
Huancavelia 83%, 86-14 Castillo
Loreto 57%, 54-46 Fujimori
Madre de Dios 84%, 69-31 Castillo
Moquegua 64%, 75-25 Castillo
Pasco 81%, 68-32 Castillo

Castillo needs to beat 60% overall in the remaining domestic vote (roughly what the 0.1/1 rule corresponds to).Big question imo is what the hell the remaining Loreto vote looks like. It's the biggest vote bank out so far. Exits had it going narrowly for Castillo and the remaining stuff there looks somewhat more pro-Castillo than what's already up? Still, very much remains to be seen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there any risk to hitting the hay right about now? Would I be missing anything?

[Sestak]

Update: 91.42% in, 50.222-49.778

Castillo gains 0.051 from 0.44

Ica added another 5% and is now fully up to the national mark in terms of reporting.

Nothing substantial from either Lareto or Cusco as far as I can tell.

[Estrella]

While we wait for the results, here's some popcorn something mildly amusing. Wikipedia Infoxboxes Are Useless In Latin America, part the infinity - featuring Acción Popular.