AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[ElectionsGuy]

Honestly, I think this will be more interesting than people will make it out to be. The way a pro-Trump Republican vs Murkowski vs Democrat vs possible independent will shake out in a RCV scenario would be somewhat unpredictable.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dems need to make it very clear to Murkowski that if she votes for DC statehood and voting rights, they'll back her reelection, otherwise it's 3rd place for her.

In other words, if she becomes a Democrat, the Democrats will back her re-election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Dems need to make it very clear to Murkowski that if she votes for DC statehood and voting rights, they'll back her reelection, otherwise it's 3rd place for her.

In other words, if she becomes a Democrat, the Democrats will back her re-election.

You don't need to become a Dem for supporting a few common sense policies that should be normal in a functioning democracy. That said, it would be a win-win for Dems and Murkowski. As simple as that.

DC statehood is not "common sense", nor is HR1. Both of them are unconstitutional. Their purpose is to lock in Democratic electoral and legislative majorities permanently. If any Republican votes for them, they should just switch parties and stop the charade.

[ElectionsGuy]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

Basically, there's two courses here

1. Murkowski gets eliminated because both the Democrat and Tshibaka get more votes than her before final round.
2. Murkowski makes it to final round because she gets more votes than the Democrat (due to enough independents voting for her over the Democrat), but then must also get enough Republicans and independents to vote for her to win.

I see no scenario where Tshibaka isn't in the final round, and I see no scenario where Murkowski is an outright favorite to win (it's at least a toss-up in scenario 2). Given Murkowski's numbers with Republicans, her strategy must rely on overwhelming amounts of independents and possibly even a good slice of Democrats outright preferring her.

[ElectionsGuy]

Senator Lisa Murkowski has written her DEATH KISS after announcing her support to confirm the most Pro-Abortion Supreme Court Justice in decades with Ketanji Brown-Jackson.

Murkowski will lose her Seat and with Palin running for Congress that will almost certainly juice up Turnout.

At this point, it's actually smart. She's running as the de facto Democrat and she knows she needs Democratic voters to survive.